Egypt involvement in Yemen 'may actually weaken Cairo's regional role', expert says

This is apropos. The Egyptian parliament has delayed a vote on whether to authorise the armed forces to support Saudi Arabia if requested, extending deliberations over a potentially deeper role in the conflict in Yemen. It comes days after the president said Cairo would take any necessary measures to protect its Gulf allies, marking a sharper public commitment amid ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi oil and other infrastructure. With the latest, here's Kami Corcoran. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi made the request at a military academy graduation on Saturday. Parliamentary authorization for armed support to Saudi Arabia in its war against the Houthis. We are not searching for a role in this, but it is inconceivable that we would allow Saudi Arabia its security or stability to be harmed. We stand strongly and in full support in order to protect the lands of our brothers in the Gulf and to protect them. It comes as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have increased in recent weeks, with the Iran-backed group carrying out strikes on Riyadh's international airport and the state oil giant Saudi Aramco. The intensifying hostilities have raised concerns around security in the Gulf and navigation through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, issues which would directly impact Egypt's interests. The mission of the Egyptian forces would be to support the defence of Saudi Arabia. Given the kingdom's vast territory and the numerous targets requiring protection, this may entail a significant number of arms, equipment and troops. Specific details will be determined later through coordination between the two sides, via discussions between Egyptian and Saudi military authorities. The Egyptian constitution requires the approval of two-thirds of the House of Representatives members before the military can be deployed on foreign combat missions. The first parliamentary session on the issue was held on Sunday, while the second debate, which had been scheduled for Monday, was postponed to the 26th of October to allow for further deliberations. Well, for more on where to now for Egypt, let's bring in May Darich, Associate Professor in International Relations of the Middle East at the University of Birmingham. Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, May. Tell us firstly, what exactly is at stake here for Egypt and why do you think this parliamentary vote has been delayed? There is a lot at stake for Egypt. On the one hand, Egypt is a longstanding ally for the Saudi kingdom. and therefore not participating in protecting the kingdom might actually threaten this kind of relationship and it might also threaten long-term Saudi investments in the Egyptian economy. But on the other hand, Egypt being embroiled in this war might have huge economic costs for Egypt but also cost for the legitimacy and the popular support for the Sisi regime as well. Well, do you expect then that Egypt's role in Yemen could be about to change? And what would that in itself tell us about the country's broader regional ambitions? There is a very long history of Egypt participating and intervening militarily in Yemen in the 1960s. And there's some sort of a national trauma. So Egypt taking another decision to intervene in Yemen, either using air forces or through soldiers on the ground, might actually bring back those memories, especially the fact that this kind of military operation does not really have any objectives or exit strategy. So at the moment, this might actually weaken Egypt's regional role, which has been already suffering because of many issues that Egypt has been facing on its borders, whether the Gaza war or the Libya civil war or the Sudan civil war. And it's been very much unable to kind of shape what's happening around its borders. and opening a fourth front in Yemen might just undermine Egypt's role even further. And you mentioned the 1960s there, the Egyptian military intervention during the North Yemen civil war. How has that experience influenced how Cairo is actually approaching the current conflict? Or is it more concerned as things stand with the domestic situation at home and how all this is going to play out to people in Egypt? There is definitely some historical trauma where Egypt has been embroiled in the war for five years in the 1960s, which started with a small operation and ended with a very large number of Egyptian soldiers in Yemen. And the war did not really lead to anything. If anything, it has weakened the Egyptian army and its capacity in fighting Israel in 1967. And this has been part of the collective memory for the Egyptian army. So maybe the decision to delay this discussion in the parliament or in Egypt until next week, it's also related to some reluctance at the popular level, but also in the military leadership of whether this could be a priority for Egypt and whether Egypt has interest in participating in this war, but more importantly, Egypt might just open up its maritime infrastructure like the Suez Canal, but also all the energy pipeline, like the SUMED pipeline, to become targets for the Houthis. Even just the Houthis threatening to attack some of the vessels passing by the Suez Canal might be enough to really harm the Egyptian economy at a time that is already a very precarious situation for Egypt and Egyptians. So all of this in mind, there's the history and there's also the current pressures, both are kind of putting the Egyptian leadership in a dilemma. And May, talk to us a little bit about Egypt's military capacity. What kind of assistance can it actually offer Saudi Arabia here? at the moment or at the start it will be some air and naval support and if the war escalates there might be some soldiers on the ground as well however once egypt is part of the war it will also become target to the houthis attacks so like the houthis have attacked energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia airports, something similar might also happen in Egypt. And this might lead to a huge economic loss in the tourist sector, the Suez Canal sector. So in a way, this is what we're anticipating. But looking more at the military capacity here, We will see that Egypt will not be able to offer more in terms of technological advancement than what the Saudi military has already. And even with their advanced military hardware, they were not really able to fend off the Houthis' attacks. So Egypt might have a little bit of advantage in terms of human resources, of the number of soldiers that it could deploy. Should a ground operation be an option? But at the same time, this sounds like also a very costly strategy. Bloodshed, economic costs, especially that the Egyptian people have not really agreed or have been sufficiently mobilized to support this war. How concerned do you think Cairo is by the perceived threat of Iranian influence in Yemen? And is that something that's also shaping Egyptian foreign policy? Yes, definitely. Egypt has suffered throughout the past three years from a decrease in the income from the Suez Canal because of the threats of the Houthis on shipment and maritime trade in the Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandab. So Egypt has been one of the most disadvantaged actors in this kind of environment. However, further escalation might mean that the whole Suez Canal might be closed. All of these trade routes might be rerouted to longer routes around the African continent, and that would lead to even more significant damages. So even though Egypt has been more or less affected, but also the prospect might be even more damage and more economic costs down the road has the country been you know would you describe it as having been an active mediator during the middle east conflict a little more broadly speaking or is its diplomatic role here largely confined to kind of supporting initiatives that are actually led by others um it has played a mediation role in some of the conflicts um that as the war Partially, it has played a role in some of the negotiations that led to the ceasefires. It has also played a direct role in the Sudan conflict and also a direct role in the Libyan civil war. So Egypt, in many of the cases, has been an active part. And in other cases, it has played the role of the mediator. However, when it comes to Yemen, Egypt has been more or less distant from the whole issue. It has been part of the Saudi-led coalition in the Yemen conflict since 2015. And it has provided, it didn't really participate directly in the Saudi-led coalition, but it has provided some sort of intelligence and logistical support. but it has made the decision to stay away from this particular conflict. May, we'll have to leave it there for now. Thank you so much though for being with us on the programme this evening. That's May Dorach, Associate Professor in International Relations of the Middle East at the University of Birmingham.