'They could hold all the power': Midterm elections explained

For people who might not understand the implications of the midterms, whichever president is sitting, why are they so important? Well, it's important to remember about the American political system, Sheila, that it's not like ours. Our political system is very, very simple. Basically, if you've got a majority in the House of Commons, the British government can do whatever it wants. It was once called an elective dictatorship. American politics is not like that. Founding fathers, in their wisdom or lack thereof, decided to separate powers. So you've got powers separated in the executive of the presidency, the judiciary, i.e. the Supreme Court and the other courts, and the legislature, i.e. Congress. And historically, actually, Congress was the most powerful. So that's the House of Representatives and the Senate. Rough guide, it's sort of the equivalent of the House of Lords and the House of Commons. This is basically where bills are passed, legislation is created, much like our own parliament. And although the president does, particularly these days, have lots of powers to govern by executive order and so on, if they want to do anything with American taxes, if they want to change anything fundamental about the American federal government... It has to go via Congress. Now, at the moment, Trump has got narrow majorities in the House and the Senate. Every two years, all 435 members of the House of Representatives are re-elected, and a third of the 100-member Senate are up for grabs. Now, it had been thought that, particularly with the gerrymandering, which has been going on, we can discuss that, but that's basically the kind of redrawing of boundaries to be favourable to another party. Republicans have been doing a lot of that. Before we got into the last few months, it was thought that because of the particular Senate seats that were up this time, which were not favourable to the Democrats and because of the gerrymandering in the House, the Republicans might be able to hang on. But such is, as you say, Sheila, the historic subterranean nature of Trump's unpopularity in the United States at the moment, that actually lots of House districts that were thought to be safe Republican, according to the polling are now potential toss ups and even states which have been Republican for generations, i.e. Alaska or Kansas, where they have not returned a Democratic senator since FDR was starting his first term in 1932, are suddenly, according to the polling, more competitive. And if Trump were to lose one or both of these houses, there would be two consequences. One is that the domestic agenda of the Trump presidency would be over because the Democrats would just refuse, would veto anything because you've got to get legislation through both houses. and secondly of course one or both would give the power to the Democrats to start investigating to start subpoenaing to start requesting documents which is something that they did last time in the first Trump presidency when they took control of the House in 2018 and it slows and irritates the federal government so you would expect more constitutional clashes or political clashes at least between Congress which under Trump has basically been a little kitten you know it's been tickling Trump's tummy the entire time suddenly he would have domestic political opposition at home. Before we get on to what he might do in the event of losing both of those houses, what about the Democrats in all of this? Because, you know, the role of the other party in, you know, the other main party is always to provide sort of ballast and pressure, isn't it? You and I spoke many times in the first year after Trump was elected, second time around, they seemed to disappear. They were nowhere. Are they coming back? Well, in fairness, they were nowhere in the sense that you know if you're the minority party um and you have no levers control of any of the legal levers of the federal government remember these last two years trump has controlled the white house um republicans controlled congress and the supreme court has been a six to three conservative majority not least because of trump's appointments that he made in the in the first term the republicans have sort of controlled everything and so in those situations The Democrats really have had little power. And to be honest with you, you know, there were all of those. I mean, you'll remember, Sheila, in the immediate months after that Trump, historic Trump win in 24. It's all this soul searching going on with the Democratic Party. Their brand had become so unpopular. They were accused rightly to some extent of hiding the extent of Joe Biden's illness. People thought that they'd become too, quote unquote, woke. You saw massive turns away from the Democrats with the historic parts of its coalition. black voters latino voters young men all transferring to trump in quite it's by significant margins and actually to be honest it's not like much has come from those conversations the democrats haven't really come up with an answer to those things they still kind of don't really know what they want to be do they want to be economically populist or culturally liberal they're very split aren't they they're very split but trump has sort of done their work for them Because the way that he has governed, particularly really in a way that he said he wouldn't, starting foreign war, splitting his own coalition, his own MAGA coalition, Republican coalition, driving through, for example, the outrage you mentioned, driving minority voters away from him and them. And frankly, not seeming to care very much about the economic malaise and the cost of living crisis that has really affected American voters. Almost denying it in plain sight. Denying it or saying he doesn't really care much about it and spending most of his time renovating the White House to look like a Mar-a-Lago gone wrong. Well, gone even further wrong. You know, that's what's been focusing his time. And American voters have noticed. And so really, in many ways, it's not that the Democrats are suddenly really popular. They're actually really not. The brand continues to be really quite damaged. It's just that Trump has shown such a kind of he's almost seemed quite Louis XVI-esque, you know, or Marie Antoinette-esque. let them eat cake he's seemed to be quite indifferent to and uncaring of the everyday problems which got him elected in '24 because remember it wasn't that americans had suddenly become convinced that trump was a brilliant guy it wasn't because they were convinced necessarily he hadn't done some of the things that the courts were accusing him of and whatever it was simply because they felt that biden was weak ineffectual and was denying the economic realities which were in front of them and basically what they've done is they've replaced a quiet old man who was guilty of those things with a very loud very noisy and to be honest even by his standards if we're going by some of his recent rallies increasingly deranged old man mainly talking about mainly talking about how attractive he finds a lot of the male congressional candidates that he's putting up for election talking about how attractive their bodies are and stuff you know more and more deranged over time it's just something that's been happening more and more surely he's been talking a lot about um how attractive he finds the bodies of the republican candidates who tend to be male that he's campaigning for in each particular state it's become something of a trend of this campaign cycle I think it started as a bit or is it is he complimenting them for being strong and fit and he's he's talking about how he likes their jaws how he likes their their their behinds how he likes their back um he's talking a lot about that sort of thing yeah now look look very un-trumpian well look if trump's going on a journey that's fine you know good luck to him you know i mean i doubt america's gay community thought that you know trump would be the first gay president but but you know that they that they would want maybe it's the one they've got who knows but the point is is that he's he's he's sounding more even more eccentric than he normally is not just eccentric either that i mean he's been indulging in out and out racism as well when he's talking about people like Abdul Aziz saying i call him muhammad you go you know i people say i shouldn't call him that why shouldn't i most muslims are called muhammad etc etc the federal investigation on Ilhan Omar that yes all of that sort of somalians are all criminal you know even for trump he has been indulging in the more eccentric if not outright outrageous uh characteristics of his political personality and as we speak raf fighter jets um are preparing to head or might have already headed to saudi arabia we learned today uh in a defensive role in that war um in Iran, to protect them from Iran-backed Houthi attacks, which we saw last week in Riyadh at the airport. There were two attacks, weren't there? He's done so many damaging things this year alone when he's been on the crest of a wave, at least in his thinking. If there is definitive evidence that he and his party are on the way out, what will he do? It means he's only got two years left to play ball. Does that make him more dangerous? I think it certainly means that there is the potential to be even more activist on the world stage. Because, of course, if he loses control of one or other houses of Congress, then it means his domestic power is substantially curtailed. Now, in fairness, I don't think there's been much evidence that Trump has got much of a domestic agenda left. You know, it's not like Congress has been full of bills and full of legislation that Trump has been pushing. He doesn't seem much interested in the domestic agenda now anyway. But it's also true to say that american presidents particularly in that sort of um last couple of years do tend to find even greater interest in foreign policy because that's the area in which they can act with the least inhibition um and so and have most power over so i wouldn't be surprised at all and we should be bracing ourselves for trump looking for a legacy look two things going to happen over these next two years one is is that obviously the day after sheila the day after the midterms on on the wednesday first wednesday november the 2028 race which has already begun will come out into the open and that will not involve trump or at least trump will not be a candidate and therefore who is going to hate i mean i don't know if this is the sharpest bit of political analysis i've ever offered you but can you just hazard a wild guess as to a political a president who might not necessarily enjoy the political spotlight turning away from him. If there was ever a president in that situation, it's going to be Donald John Trump, right? And he will do his best. If he can insert himself into the Yorkshire Wildlife Park story, you can bet your bottom 100 billion Bitcoin dollars that he will insert himself into every bit of the 2028 race he can. First, the Republican nomination, and then the race when it starts. You know, the Republican nomination will be like a series of The Apprentice Gone Wrong. You know, he'll be setting Vance tasks, He's going to be setting Rubio tasks and, you know, he'll make himself the sun king at the center of it. But even that will not compare with the thrill he can get from the foreign seat. And what I'm afraid of at the moment, if we just take the, you know, what's going on in Ukraine and try and piece it all together. Opposition to Ukraine from Trump is not new. Opposition to Zelensky from Trump is not new. But what we've certainly seen over the past month or two is a sustained series of moves which imply or indicate that Trump has decided that he wants to more aggressively bring this conflict to an end. And partly because it's very clear, and there's been lots of American reporting on this, Trump is increasingly convinced that there is money to be made for everybody. He keeps telling Zelensky, look, if you just forget about this, you know, Luhansk and Donetsk and all these Zaporizhia and all these places, who's ever heard of them? Who cares? You know, just do a deal with it and we can all make some money. And he would dearly like to therefore bring it to an end. And he sees in that Trumpian way, he says, well, the best way of bringing it to an end is by the bigger guy to win. Because that's how Trump sees the world. It's how he sees Manhattan real estate. It's what he did with Syria. It's how he sees geopolitics, right? And so he just thinks, if I can push and push and push. And hence that absurd clip, an outrageous clip that we saw yesterday with Trump basically saying the Russians aren't doing much in Ukraine. Just for listeners' point of information, just yesterday, six people, including kids, were injured some killed in an attack on a public park in Kharkiv right one little kid one one year old in a push chair this is what the american president says there's not much going on from russia's point of view right but i would be worried and i think europe needs to be worried right now about a bigger grand bargain that trump's got in his mind because what's going on today he's got his Witkoff who is his special emissary going to oslo to talk to the ukrainians and talk to the Nordic countries. Then he's going to St. Petersburg for another face-to-face meeting with the Russians. Obviously, the Europeans won't be in that. The Ukrainians won't either. And there are rumours, again, well-reported in the American press that Trump has his eye on a kind of new global bargain. Not just with Putin, but with President Xi of China as well. That there would be a kind of new Yalta conference. People remember the Second World War conference with Churchill and with Roosevelt and with Stalin, where these three big powers basically carved up the world and basically decide among them how a new global order is going to work Putin would love this this is what Putin's wanted all along he wants that legitimacy and he would love to basically be able to make Ukraine just one minor issue of world order among many and I think we in Europe have got to take that very very seriously because you can bet your bottom dollar if that does happen not only will the Ukrainians not be at the table but none of us will be either Well, my biggest fear resides in the Ukraine war as well. So we'll see what people feel about what a corner Donald Trump might do. I promised you a bit of levity towards the end of the conversation. Not not gag, is it? Not not. Who's there? Donald. Hang on, hang on. You've provided it for us. For those of you who thought Lewis was exaggerating about Donald Trump's conversations about some of his male colleagues. Here is the president talking about a man called John Husted, the Republican standing in Ohio last week. Take a listen. He came up and he was talking very nicely. And I stood right over here and I examined his ass. I never did that. No, I never did that with a man before. I examined his ass and then I looked at his shoulders. I looked at his feet. I looked at his hand. I looked at his jawline. He's got a jawline. And this is, you would be very unfortunate if you picked a fight with him at a bar someday. Although we're having a laugh about it, in a way, this is the fear, isn't it? You've got this man with so much power meddling the way he is, as you've described in Ukraine. We've seen Iran and Venezuela, and he's promised to go to Cuba as well in that UN speech. He's got so much power, so little time, two years, and yet he's capable of this nonsense too. It is very worrying. Well, if it were just this, of course, it would be sort of harmless enough. But as you say, as you say, I mean, you know, I think the last two years of the Trump presidency could be the most tumultuous yet for the reasons that we've said, which is this is a man who wants to be at the center of the world and the center of American politics. And the last two years of a typical American president is a time of a dying of the light and a waning. And I think Donald Trump, who wants to reinvent every American political dictum, I don't see why this would be any different. He wants to be remembered forever in the way that people like Stalin and Churchill have been remembered forever.