Sunday Scrum | As Alberta prepares to vote, what's next for Danielle Smith?

This is all happening, obviously, just the day before Albertans head to the polls to vote in a referendum where they will decide, amongst other things, the future of their province. This now hanging over what is an important day for Alberta generally. Let's bring in our Sunday Scrum to talk a little bit about that. Tonda McCharles is the Toronto Star's Ottawa Bureau Chief. Nick Taylor-Vasey is Politico's Ottawa Bureau Chief. Jason Markovoff, a producer and writer with CBC News, and he joins us this morning from Edmonton. This will be a hard turn. I recognize that. But this is an important day in Alberta tomorrow, even though this tragedy has struck. And we know very little about what has happened to date. So we'll make the turn and talk a little bit about politics, and I will bring people up to date if we get any more information in the next couple of minutes. Jason, what's the mood in Alberta? I mean, now that this has happened, I guess things are turning a little bit, but what is your sense of things right now? The mood has turned definitely, and I imagine that by come Monday, when probably we have more information, the turn will have moved again. That said, a lot of the province i think we're close to half of the province it's already voted half of all voters have already voted either in advance voting which ended yesterday uh or special mail-in balloting because people were so aware that there would be these long lineups to come on election day uh because there are only this one separation question which is driving unusually high numbers of people to vote a big motivator as it has was in quebec and other referendums in other countries but also these other nine questions on the ballot, on immigration and constitutional reforms. So it's a lot of work for poll clerks and voters, so people are going to be later. I'm really interested in how this is going to affect the moments after the debate, what happened at Wainwright, because Danielle Smith, the Premier, and kind of others were expecting this to be like a moment of reckoning, of, you know, what happens to the at times antagonistic relationship between the federal government and the provincial government with all these questions, urging Alberta to get a stronger hand in immigration or constitutional powers and possibly to start the process to separate. But as you were reporting, the federal defense minister, David McGinty, is going to be coming here. I would be surprised, not that I know anything, but that the prime minister doesn't wind up coming here in the coming days. either on referendum day or after the referendum. So there will be this place where, after what was supposed to be this big moment of reckoning for the province and the country, we'll see Premier Danielle Smith alongside her federal counterparts grieving, consoling families, coming together for this unusual thing that unifies a country. Yeah, I mean, it is kind of remarkable how this could change sort of the tone of the next few days. Certainly, as you said, David McGinty, the minister headed there now, Pierre Poilievre expected to be there a little bit later today. This, of course, happened in his riding. Tana McTrails, I'll just bring you in here. It is unusual that it's all, you know, it's just a coincidence, obviously, but it could change the dynamic of how tomorrow plays out. I mean, it's a tragic coincidence. Whether it changes people's minds about their vote, That's an entirely different question. It will for sure change some of the logistics around the holding of the vote. I guess we'll hear later from Elections Alberta authorities how widespread that change will. But I mean, at this point, it seems like something that this province does need to carry through with the exercise of getting the actual ballots out there and tallied. I think that obviously in the Edmonton and Wainwright corridor in that area, it may affect some of the logistics. But look, the emotion around it is really going to be a fascinating thing to watch to see how it plays out. And as Jason mentioned, you know, we don't know yet if the prime minister will go in the coming days. His office isn't answering that question this morning. But I expect that, you know, we've already seen in some of the polling that the people who had either voted in the advance polls or had decided their vote were pretty firm they weren't going to change their mind. And some 84 percent were telling Abacus data that they weren't about to change their mind between now and Election Day or Referendum Day. So I think, you know, look, it's a fascinating development. It's a terrible, terrible development for the for the training base, for the people all around there and all the support and logistics around it. And I think that, you know, how people are thinking of it is really in very practical terms right now, not in terms of political impacts or fallout. No, no, for sure not. And it should be the most important thing today, right? It should be the most important thing today. But this other call is out there, Nick Taylor-Vasy, and, you know, it was the prime minister and Pierre Poilievre and others on Friday calling for people to get out and vote, which now practically may be challenging for some people. But it is still this important moment in Alberta's history where they are going to sort of officially weigh in on where they want things to go. Yeah. And I think one thing we have to remember, too, this morning, and I know we were all watching the news last night and we're all trying to get as much information as we can. We may not have properly reckoned at all with the scale of what has happened here. Maybe we have, maybe we haven't, just in the lack of information. So I'm not sure by the end of the day I'll be thinking about this event like I'm thinking about it right now. Either way, it's going to be obviously a major impact on, as my colleagues have talked about, the mood heading into this vote. But absolutely, the referendum more broadly in Ottawa has come to dominate, I think, not every conversation. But it is, I think, remarkable how much time we spent talking about the Alberta referendum vote versus the Quebec election in Ottawa. Of course, that also preoccupied a lot of people. Separation also, not just an undertone, but like an overtone of that vote. But a lot of conversation in Ottawa over the last several weeks in particular, but months, about Alberta. And I wonder what you make of that, Jason. Is that because of the—like, I don't think it speaks to the potency of the movement, the separation movement. Does it speak to the decades-long sort of Western alienation? Does it speak to the economic engine that Alberta is for the country? What do you think that's about? It comes from a few threads. I mean, people ask when this all started. I mean, it almost started when Alberta became a province back in 1905, and there was this long prevailing sense that this was going to be a milk cow with its agricultural resources and its oil resources for the rest of the province. Then they came up through other issues like National Energy Project program in the 80s and the climate action. But then there's this other really interesting dynamic in 2020, starting in 2020, this kind of new timeline with COVID. And that bred most of the activists were not even active in politics until COVID. And they were offended by vaccine mandates, masking rules, businesses closing, and they've harnessed that activism. They took it to the convoy, and now they've taken it to being so despondent with where Canada is and what Canada has become that they want to leave entirely. That said, polling shows that the stay side outnumbers the leave side three to one. So that is a minority group largely contained within the United Conservative Party base, the Danielle Smith base. So I've long thought that this separatism issue, having a vehicle to take it with the petition now with this referendum vote coming up tomorrow, is a problem for the country to reckon with. But also, and perhaps even more so, should there be a law passed tomorrow, something for Danielle Smith and her own party to reckon with, how they move forward with it. Yeah, what kind of pressure, Tonda, does it put on the prime minister to then demonstrate that his cooperative federalism can work? I think a lot. I mean, I think in one respect, as Jason says, you know, just the very fact of holding the referendum and putting that question on the ballot has given a body and a shape and a structure and a fundraising effort behind the Get Out of Canada movement, right? But I think it's very important to recognize that that movement is a very small minority and a small minority within, well, it's a majority perhaps within the UCP, but even within the voters who are now indicating to pollsters that they will vote for the process to get underway, an independent, an actual legally binding independence vote, within that group, most of them are saying they're wanting to vote to send a message to Ottawa. So what does that mean? It means that Mark Carney is going to have something to reckon with in his agenda. Coincidentally, actually, a lot of Alberta's aspirations coincide with Mark Carney's aspirations for Alberta. The pipeline project, the development and, you know, recognition of, I guess, the Federation's recognition of provincial powers. He's an advocate of provincial autonomy where in their in their areas of jurisdiction. Can he find common ground with Danielle Smith after this? I think so much is relying on what Albertans tell him about all the other questions and just how much power and leverage he's willing to give Daniel Smith to fight back the separatists in her own party, but also in recognition of Alberta's sort of, he calls them issues, not grievances. I think a lot of Albertans probably think of them as grievances. Last 30 seconds to you there, Nick. Yeah, I think a lot of people who want to send a message to Ottawa are talking about structural reforms, maybe constitutional reforms, some of the questions that they're voting on, the other nine questions they're voting on. I wonder how much we will see more visual reforms. We're used in Ottawa to seeing Quebecers in prominent positions in cabinet, Supreme Court, all kinds of institutions as a recognition of that province's place in the federation. I wonder if Don Farrell running the major projects office in Calgary is the beginning of something more there from the prime minister. This all happening, though, just a day before that critical referendum in Alberta, nine questions about various issues that are important to the premier, she says. And then that last question about whether Alberta wants to remain in Canada or start a process to leave. Let's bring back our Sunday Scrum to talk a little bit of politics on this difficult day for Alberta and for the country. Tonda McCharles, the Toronto Star's Ottawa Bureau Chief. Nick Taylor-Vasey is Politico's Ottawa Bureau Chief. And Jason Markosoff, a producer and writer with CBC. He's in Edmonton this morning. I want to talk a little bit about the domestic Alberta politics of this moment, if we can, because it is interesting to me what is going to happen next there. Certainly, I'm sure you all heard there Corey Hogan talking about what happens the day after and how people move beyond this. Jason, let's start with you. Daniel Smith didn't have to do this. She didn't have to put this forward as a question. This was her decision, and she says it was to sort of be able to put it behind her and behind the province. What do you make of how she's been handling it and what might happen on Tuesday? She's between a rock and an even harder place on this one. And a lot of people I speak to about this think it's a self-inflicted wound. She feels like she had to feed the yearning for a separatist movement within the Conservative base of her party, the United Conservative base that propelled her into office on kind of COVID issues and convoy issues from 2022 in Ottawa. really suddenly after a 2025 election, federal election, wanted separatism and she's decided to meet them where they are. The problem is that about three quarters of the public isn't there at all and opposes that vociferously. And we've seen in a by-election last month that they sent a message to not Ottawa, but to her, electing the NDP in what was believed to be a safe Calgary seat uh she has next month uh a the UCP annual general meeting uh which all these grassroots often a lot of separatists uh will be coming out and potentially challenging her leadership potentially trying to stack the board potentially trying to make this party more and more conservative but there's another uh big uh kind of milestone coming up and yes tomorrow we're one day away from the referendum we're one year from today away from the next general election in Alberta. And this last by-election suggested that more and more people are realizing that the more Danielle Smith focuses on the needs and wants of her conservative base, the hardline base, the less they might be paying attention to the rest of the public and the rest of the government's demands. And so she's going to have to be careful of that as she tries to appease her base, but also look toward the general public and the general election next year. I mean, it's so fascinating, Donna. And often what happens to politicians, particularly conservative ones, where they have to try to contend with their core support while dealing with everything else. And in this case, Danielle Smith is, as Jason says, trying very hard to satisfy everyone. But ultimately, Monday will show that she can't. I mean, someone will be disappointed after Monday. I mean, that's the nature of politics, really, right now, these days, isn't it? No one's ever satisfied. It seems harder and harder for political parties also to find and cement compromise as a guiding principle. So, look, Danielle Smith has a big challenge within her own party. She's going to have to face increased demands, I'm sure, no matter what the number. We've all heard that through our reporting over the past few weeks. no matter what the number, increased demands for more power for Alberta and more recognition of the separatist grievances. It's also, I think, a question for Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives. Based in Alberta, a major portion of their base is based in that province. And you've seen him juggle that too. You've seen him, through this campaign, make the case for Canada, but in a different way than Mark Carney does. He makes the case that it's very much a partisan argument that a conservative government would recognize Alberta's, as he calls them, genuine grievances, legitimate grievances. And so I think it's a juggling act for all of them. And I think Mark Carney also has raised expectations that the Liberal Party under him will be more a centre-right party and will address those concerns. Now, will we see that roll out in practical terms? I think that's a huge question Tuesday for sure Nick yeah I mean Danielle Smith has scored a lot of victories um with Ottawa in the last year and a half you know ever since Mark Carney came into office um she's been rewarded for that with a pretty low approval rating the most popular politician in Alberta Mark Carney right um so these uh these other nine questions a whole bunch of them as we've talked about on the show already uh deal with immigration um is Premier Smith that's Is her next sort of salvo going to be trying to play hardball with Ottawa on immigration? This could be, in Ottawa, a conversation we have more and more, as a PQ government in Quebec also prioritizes lower immigration levels. And Lena Diab, the immigration minister, I think the consensus pick, as one of Mark Carney's weakest ministers, is talking about immigration levels increasing. Pierre Polyev read the long transcript of Mark Carney's interview with the New York Times And the prime minister there also talked about a controlled increase in immigration. And so Polyev is zeroing in on that, saying that is the wrong move for several reasons. So immigration may be the next conversation we have at the federal provincial level, but also between the prime minister and his primary opposition. Yeah, we are waiting for immigration numbers this fall, new numbers, which they release every year. Jason, about 30 seconds to you on that point. Danielle Smith, we'll see what the mandate she gets on the immigration questions. She's promised that if she doesn't get, if she gets a no on all these nine, and it seems like from sources of mine, there's a big worry that they thought they were going to be easy wins. It could be no. She won't pick up these fights. So that, we'll see how much of a strong mandate that she wanted. She thought these were easy questions that she'd authored, that she'd win. Who knows?