Israeli voters have radicalised further since October 7, analyst says

In just over a week, Israelis head to the polls in elections described as the most consequential in the country's history. And on October 27th, voters in Israel will be choosing between change or handing the most right-wing government in Israel's history another mandate. Al Jazeera has special coverage for the next 10 days. Take a listen to some of the messages from the campaign trail. What is Netanyahu afraid of? Netanyahu is afraid of the Arab vote. and i want to say here in front of everyone and all the cameras Netanyahu is right he should be afraid of the Arab vote the situation right now is dire crime is at a historic high under a failed minister prices are soaring and we're seeing record levels of draft evasion Israel needs to be fixed never has an Israeli government been given so much room to maneuver and so much legitimacy from the public and from the world and suffered such a resounding strategic failure i want a right-wing government that will protect our soldiers protect our police officers dismantle the Palestinian Authority encourage immigration and implement the death penalty for terrorists do you want a Palestinian state do you want a Jewish state do you want a judicial dictatorship Do you want a true democracy? Do you want to surrender? I know what you want. You want to fight. Well, on this, the first day of our special coverage, we're taking a look at the voters. Anyone 18 and older who holds Israeli citizenship is eligible to cast a vote. More than 60% of voters are secular or traditional Jews. This is the biggest voting bloc, and it's diverse. These voters support parties on the left, the right, and the center. The second biggest bloc is Palestinian Israelis. They make up about 17% of the electorate. 11% of voters are ultra-Orthodox Jews. They have significant influence because turnout rates are historically high. About 80% of all ultra-Orthodox Jews tend to cast ballots. And finally, there are the smaller minorities, including the Druze and Bedouin. They make up around 5% of the electorate. Javier Abou-Eid is a political analyst and former communications director for the Palestine Liberation Organization. He's with me now in the studio. Good to see you, Javier. How has the, this is a question that I put to Noor a few minutes ago, how has the electorate in Israel changed since the last election? Of course, October the 7th has happened since then. Eisenkot, the main opposition candidate, he's been campaigning in traditional Likud strongholds. Why? Who's he hoping to sway there? Thank you, Adrian. What Eisenkot is doing, it's trying to change traditional Israeli politics. Usually, you have a society that after 80 years, they have not succeeded to act as one group. They have different groups. And the group that Eisenkot belongs to, that are Eastern Jews, Jews that came from Arab or Muslim countries, they represent almost 50% of the Israeli Jewish population. And they usually vote, 70-80% of them, either for Likud or for Shas, which is also part of the Israeli government coalition. Now, one of the main changes that they have seen so far is the fact that after October the 7th, of course, there is a radicalization, even further radicalization. It's not like before October the 7th, Israeli society was willing to go for peace. And then we talk about statistics that show that, for example, from all Israeli Jewish citizens between 18 and 24 years old, over 70 percent of them identify as either right wing or far right wing. So that's a big change because only about 10 percent of them identify, quote unquote, as left wing. And then, of course, Adrian, there is a discussion on what is left. Why is that? Because you'd imagine in most countries, 18 to 24 identify with the left wing. Why in Israel are young people who are coming onto the electoral roll since the last election in 2022 right-wing or extreme right-wing? I think, first of all, it's important to put things in context. When we talk about right-wing or left-wing in Israel, it's not like right-wing or left-wing outside. We have a left-wing in Israel, quote-unquote left-wing, a Zionist left-wing, that has supported racist legislation against Palestinian citizens, that opposes Palestinian statehood, that continues to support Israeli settlements. They just perhaps oppose settler terror attacks, for example. But they are not questioning the legitimacy of the occupation. So I think Benjamin Netanyahu won over the past years. You're talking about a generation of Israeli Jews that only met Benjamin Netanyahu as a prime minister. He has been a very successful politician. I want to ask you, Javier, about another minority group in Israel. That's the Druze. Around 150,000 Druze live in Israel. Many of them have strong ties to Syria, of course. And last week, Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged publicly for the first time that he had spoken directly to Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad. Now, it was in 2025, after the Israeli military bombed Damascus in an attack that it said was to protect the Syrian Druze community. Let's listen to what Netanyahu had to say. We took down the Ministry of Defense in Damascus, just like that, gone. We hit a target inside the palace compound, and I called Ahmed al-Sharraf. It was very short, very sharp conversation, and the slaughter stopped. And I will do whatever is necessary to protect our brothers, your brothers, and our brothers. So, Javier, Netanyahu making a very clear statement that he's on the side of the Druze. Does that bear out with the reality on the ground? What are the community's main concerns right now, and which way are they likely to vote? I think about the following. In 1948, the Druze community, they switched loyalties and supported the Zionist movement. They joined the Israeli army. They have been fighting in elite units in the Israeli army. And then Benjamin Netanyahu, a few years ago, pushes for the Jewish nation state law that basically says, no matter how much you fought, the only people with the right to self-determination here are the Jews. At that moment, the loyalty most Druze had with Likud ended. And now he's trying to get it back. But let's put things in context. The Druze do not elect more than perhaps one seat, one seat and a half, no more than that. But what Netanyahu is trying to do, he's trying to tell the Jewish electorate that criticizes him for the Jewish national state law, that he still cares about all Israeli citizens. Whatever happens on election day, we're going to end up with another coalition government. Which blocs then have perhaps disproportionate power within the Israeli electoral system? Who are the kingmakers here? That's a very important question. So far, I cannot see kingmakers. Why? For example, many people have spoken of Mansour Abbas. We saw the report before about the Palestinian parties in Israel. But what surveys suggest is that even if Mansour Abbas makes it with four or five seats to the Israeli parliament, it will not be enough for the opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu to win. Adding to that, that even the opposition in Israel is not willing to form a government with Palestinians. Palestinians. This is also an important element to be considered. But I think so far, we can see more than one scenario, and Netanyahu has been pushing for one, which is to have a Zionist or national unity government, including some elements that today are in the opposition. Really good to talk to you, Javier. Many thanks indeed for being with us. Javier Abu Eid.