Super El Niño threatens Latin America with droughts, floods and food shortages

Hello and welcome to Inside Latin America from Peru's Pacific coast. Beneath these waters, an extraordinary warming is stretching thousands of kilometers across the Equatorial Pacific. It's called El Niño, a phenomenon named by Peruvian fishermen more than a century ago because it happened during Christmas, El Niño, or Baby Jesus. But this is far more than just warmer water. Rising ocean temperatures disrupt wind and rainfall patterns, triggering potential life-threatening weather. This year, El Niño is exceptionally strong. Scientists say it is developing into a rare super El Niño, with consequences being felt far beyond the Pacific. Across parts of Asia, drought has dried out peatlands, fueling devastating fires in Indonesia. While elsewhere, heavy seasonal rains are raising the risk of major flooding. And drought in Sudan is threatening food supplies of millions of livelihoods. And here in Latin America, the impact is no longer just a forecast. Heavy rains and landslides are hitting parts of the Andean region, with a huge surge of water in the Iguazu Falls on the Brazil-Argentina border, fires in Brazil and also here in Peru. And drought across Central America is threatening crops and livelihoods, affecting millions of people. Scientists in Peru are keeping a close watch, deploying sensors at sea to measure the temperature, and they're tracking changes from the monitoring center at the Geophysical Institute of Peru. What this map is showing is that the temperatures here along the coast and into the equatorial Pacific are over 3 degrees C above the average. Even though El Niño was originally known as an oceanographic phenomenon, When the warming happens in this region, it affects the storminess in this area, and that in turn changes the atmospheric circulation everywhere in the world because it generates waves. And these waves propagate, they move all over the world, and it changes how the winds are coming in, whether it's warm air, cold air, dry, wet. And that obviously changes climate over the time scale of a few months. Does climate change make the El Niño more frequent or more dangerous? There are some studies that suggest that perhaps the extreme events such as this might become more frequent with climate change. We cannot really say whether this time is because of climate change, but it definitely is adding to the impacts of the warming, the global warming, at the same time as the ocean warming, so that the impacts associated with heat and drought are perhaps going to be stronger this time than, say, in 1998. How worried is the scientific community seeing this? We are worried in the sense that we already know what might happen. What worries us is whether the actions necessary to prevent those impacts are being taken as quickly as we need them to. Several Latin American countries have issued emergency measures. For more, we go to Alessandro Rampieti in Colombia. This is Villa de Leyva in central Colombia, where the unpredictable effects of El Niño are in full display. In September, a massive wildfire swept through the hills, threatening one of Colombia's most picturesque and touristy colonial towns. It burned an area larger than 2,000 football pitches, reaching deep inside a protected natural sanctuary. Months of drought and strong winds helped the flames spread and made it hard for firefighters and volunteers to stop the fire. Then just days later, torrential rains arrived. And that's the paradox of El Niño in Colombia. It doesn't mean that the rain stops completely, but it changes when, where and the intensity of how much it falls. Authorities say that across Colombia, more than 500 municipalities are at serious risk of water shortages. Thousands of head of cattle have already died for lack of pasture. And in just 15 days, in September, wildfire alerts went from 7 to 90. But the biggest concern is what comes next. Forecasters say that the worst drought conditions will be between December and February, destroying crops, spiking up food prices and leaving entire communities without water. Studies say up to 30% of the food produced in Colombia could be at risk. And despite repeated warnings, the government's budget is underestimating the risk. With El Niño potentially lasting well into next year, the consequences could linger long after the situation returns to normal. And for more on the risk of food insecurity across the region, we go to Julia Galeano in Honduras. Of the more than 600 families in San Miguelito, along Honduras' dry corridor, none were able to save their corn and bean crops during this year's first harvest. Now trying to avert an even deeper crisis, the World Food Programme is stepping in to help the most vulnerable families get through the months ahead. The bags contain staples like rice, beans and oil, but mostly they provide temporary respite after the worst drought this farming community can remember. In my 57 years I have never seen a situation like this where everyone in the community is affected. There is no one here who has a bit of corn or some beans to sell. We have to go to the capital to buy anything we need now. San Miguelito lies in Central America's Dry Corridor, a vast stretch of land home to some 10 million people. Its location makes it extremely vulnerable to the effects of El Niño. In Honduras alone, authorities estimate more than 2 million people could face acute food insecurity in the coming months. El Niño isn't going to change. We need to adapt, finding practical science-based solutions suited to each place, each part of the country. For many families, losing their first harvest meant losing their food for the year. Some have even had to eat the seeds they had set aside for planting. But Maximino is still holding out hope. Don Maximino decided he would give it another shot after losing his entire crop earlier in the year. Now, these were planted about 20 days ago and he tells me they need another 40 days of rain for them to be viable. Meteorologists say he's unlikely to get that. Forecasts suggest the rains may end in no more than a month. After declaring a state of emergency in August, Honduran authorities are trying to extend this rainy season as long as they can. This cloud seeding program is part of those efforts. Since last month, at least 12 of these flights have released silver iodide into existing clouds in an attempt to stimulate more rainfall. While he waits for the rains, Maximino and his family say this help is a much-needed lifeline. It should keep their family of five from going hungry for the next month. But after that, they will be facing the same uncertainty, with no guarantee of another harvest. Millions of families like Maximino's are facing a food crisis that, as we've seen, is threatening to spread well beyond Honduras. I spoke to Carl Skau, the acting executive director of the World Food Programme, about what that means for this region and whether aid agencies can keep up. We have really already seen how farmers in the dry corridor, not least, have been really impacted. But we're also hearing the same reports from Cuba, from Haiti and other parts of the Caribbean. We have many drivers that are pushing up hunger now. Conflict is a driver also in Latin America and insecurity in some other parts. we are also seeing an impact from these global disruptions to maritime trade that we have in the Black Sea, in the Strait of Hormuz, and in the Red Sea now, also driving up prices of energy, fertilizer, and food here in Latin America. We've covered many migration movements in this region, specifically from Central America. Violence obviously has been a big driver, but also climate change, and people saying that they've lost their crops, they just had no way of sustaining themselves. The picture of migration for Latin America is very different right now. Is this an extra concern for you as an organization? It's clear that when people are hungry, I mean, they usually have three options. It's to, you know, stand by and starve. It is to migrate, move, or it is to turn to some negative coping mechanism, whether that is, you know, join a criminal gang or some armed rebellion. So clearly there is also a security argument to invest in this prevention. This situation also comes in the context of a very complex situation for the humanitarian world in general in terms of money and cuts. When it comes to funding, globally we are really, really stretched. But I think the challenge we have here is that the funding we have is not flexible enough also so that we can take early action. We fear that by the end of the year 16 million more people are going to be food insecure in Latin America because of this crisis. Drought, floods, forest fires, El Niño is felt after it has warmed up the cold surface of the Pacific Ocean months before. And here, underwater, it first hits the ecosystem. This tiny fish, the Peruvian anchoveta, a type of anchovy, starts to swim deeper in search of lower temperatures. And that kicks off a devastating chain of reaction. is the backbone of Peru's fish meal and fish oil industries the country is the world's leading producer and exporter of these products but dozens of vessels have been docked since the anchoveta began to disappear from these waters in March and in July officials reported an 80 percent drop in the anchoveta catch brought ashore compared with the same period last year it has the potential to take a staggering toll on the industry and the ecosystem. The anchoveta also plays a crucial role in the marine food web. It sits at the very base. It's preyed upon at every stage of its life, as an egg, larva, juvenile and adult. Its disappearance is like a drought that causes the fields to wither. Peru is especially vulnerable to El Niño. In the past, floods and landslides have destroyed crops and infrastructure, left tens of thousands of people homeless and cost billions of dollars in damage. And now the country's bracing for another potentially devastating blow. El Niño has brought much of Peru's fishing industry to a standstill, threatening more than 250,000 direct and indirect jobs. Perus Marine Research Institute suggests conditions for the upcoming fishing season remain bleak. Traditional fishermen are struggling too. This seven-man crew is preparing to head out to sea. They'll likely have to travel more than 120 nautical miles offshore in search of jumbo flying squid. In recent months, the jumbo flying squid are further out, which means higher costs, more ice, more fuel and provisions. and fewer trips per month with El Niño pushing ocean temperatures more than three degrees above normal scientists warn the conditions may not return to normal before February across Latin America El Niño is taking its toll threatening entire