Maga Turnout Surges to Hold Senate

Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a toss-up race that has drawn hundreds of millions in outside spending. Recent Marist and other polls show the contest tight (Talarico often +2–4 among likely voters), with GOP groups flooding the airwaves. Bannon and Wren note voters hearing recycled attacks and a mid-October shift as early negative ads fade.

Ohio (Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown) and Maine (Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson) remain pure toss-ups, with Collins’ unique ability to run ahead of Trump among white women and independents highlighted. Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers) and Iowa are also in play; the focus is blue-collar and farm voters concerned about costs, with late-breakers expected to matter.

Democratic donors have pulled back after 2024 losses, and ActBlue faces ongoing House probes, subpoenas, and state investigations over verification and potential foreign or fraudulent contributions. Wren argues the combination of donor fatigue and scrutiny has left Democrats with far less late money than in past cycles, limiting persuasion ads this close to Election Day.

With persuasion largely over, the race is now about turnout. War Room Posse members, Brian Harrison, and other grassroots activists are active in places like Bullhead City, Texas GOTV events, and Kalispell. Trump continues visiting key states (Ohio, Montana, etc.). Republicans are counting on better organization and cultural conservatism among Hispanic and Black voters to offset any Democratic enthusiasm edge.

Will the MAGA grassroots and Republican turnout operation be enough to hold the Senate on November 3, or will Democrats’ enthusiasm and competitive polling in Texas, Ohio, and Maine produce the flips they need?

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