Why some Republicans are worried about losing Congress

All right, welcome back. 721 right now. So the midterms are less than three weeks away. And a new report from Politico says some Republicans are worried about the party's chances to keep control of Congress. And we're breaking down some of these concerns with Connie Mixon. She is professor of political science and director of the Urban Studies Program at Elmhurst University. Connie, nice to see you. Thank you for joining us. Let's start with this political report. What are you hearing about Republican concerns about losing control of the House? I know the Senate is kind of in play as well. Well, Republicans have a reason to be worried. Midterms are always a referendum on the president. And knowing this, a term-limited president like Trump would normally fade from the campaign. But Trump has nationalized the race around himself, which this strengthens the referendum effect rather than diluting it. And since 1934, the president's party has gained seats in a midterm only three times. 1934, this was during Roosevelt's term, it was the Depression, New Deal. 1998, this was Clinton and that was backlash to his impeachment. And then the last time was 2002 during Bush's first term and that was right after 9-11. And keep in mind in President Trump's first midterm in 2018, Republicans lost a whopping 41 House seats. And his approval rating then was in the low 40s, today it's in the mid 30s. So historically, second term midterms have been especially tough for the president's party. And Republicans certainly are in fear for the House and the Senate is really hanging by a thread. So knowing this and And looking at the history and the trajectory of how you just explained that this really could be a referendum on the president. What races are you watching closely? How do you think this is gonna play out right now? Well, I think the House is just about all but gone at this point. Republicans currently hold the Senate 53 to 47. So Democrats need to flip four seats to get a majority of 51. So the election night drama is really gonna be seven Senate races that are a genuine toss up. And those are in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Kansas and Michigan. So those are the seven. And if you had asked me a few months ago if states like Iowa and Kansas would be in play, I never would have thought so. Yeah, a lot of twists and turns here. Now, can you talk to us about what the final two years of the president's term would look like should Democrats take control of the House? Well, the stakes couldn't be higher. If Democrats win the House, the last two years of Trump's presidency look very different. There'll be more oversight, more investigations. It'll be much harder for the White House to govern. and if Democrats win the Senate too, it's really a political earthquake. Okay, let's say, okay, I mean, if Democrats were to take both houses, that would be really interesting. But what happens, let's say, if Democrats take control of the House but Republicans were to keep the Senate, so you've got a split? Well, you're still going to see the House increase investigations, they'll take control of the purse. Normally, Congress should be exercising a great deal more oversight over the executive branch, but because it's a Republican trifecta with Republicans having the White House, the House, and the Senate, there hasn't been a lot of oversight. So Democrats even controlling one house makes a huge difference. Liz and I were talking before our segment. I'm going to steal her question because she was curious about turnout and what you expect. I mean, traditionally with the midterms, there's not the level of turnout for, you know, one of those on-year presidential elections. Do you think this year will be different in terms of turnout and people will turn out in droves? No, not necessarily. You know, typically for a midterm election, we kind of hope to get around 50% turnout. I would say that Democrats certainly have the edge in terms of enthusiasm this midterm election, but Republicans are just as likely to show up. So turnout really is the wild card. All right, well, thank you so much for being with us this morning and offering that perspective here. I was hoping you'd say yes, people are gonna turn out in droves, but it just doesn't seem that way unfortunately. It turns. They just don't, they just don't pull the crowds like the presidential elections. All right, thanks for being with us this morning. Thank you so much.