'It's clear that Moscow is just playing with Washington', analyst says

This is apropos. Russia has no interest in an energy ceasefire, so says Vladimir Zelensky, who's accusing Moscow of targeting at least six energy facilities during further deadly attacks on Ukraine. The U.S. president sowed confusion over the weekend with a surprise announcement that the warring sides had agreed to end their punishing long-range strikes on power plants and oil refineries. With the latest, here's Selina Sykes. Emergency workers combed through the wreckage of this residential building in Kharkiv. hit in a Russian strike on Monday morning, just hours after Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire on social media. I was asleep. It wasn't even nine o'clock in the morning. We ran out in whatever we were wearing. There are only civilians here, no soldiers. There was nothing, and they attacked civilians. So what sort of ceasefire can there be? The U.S. president's surprise ceasefire announcement for a second time in a few weeks has caused confusion. Kyiv, who said they would back the truce, has already accused Moscow of violating the agreement between the pair to end their strikes on power plants and oil refineries, accusing the Kremlin of attacking six sites on Monday, including a thermal power plant in Kharkiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that it is increasingly evident that Russia is unwilling to accept the terms and that Ukraine will respond if Russia refuses. Moscow, meanwhile, has said that ceasefire talks were ongoing. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Zelensky doesn't deserve any respite, which could pave the way to holding elections as demanded by Trump in his latest swipe at the Ukrainian president. He is eager to use any words, any initiatives, any ideas that appear in the public sphere to promote his interest in a ceasefire by any means necessary. I don't think he deserves a respite ukraine's allies in europe have all backed a pause in attacks targeting the energy sector but have also lined up to condemn trump's announcement to allow russia to supply diesel exports with gas prices surging ahead of u.s midterm elections next month well for more let's bring in Greg Warus director of the europe and russia and eurasia programs at chatham house thanks so much for being with us on the program. No sign of any truce Greg Warus, but plenty of criticism of Donald Trump's deal to buy Russian oil and bring down fuel prices. Is it going to do what the U.S. president is hoping? Well, nothing is less certain. What is very interesting is that we've heard a few moments ago that apparently Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff actually met the Ukrainians in Miami on the 9th of October, so last Thursday, and talked to the Ukrainians, telling them that the idea of Donald Trump was actually to encourage Putin to resume peace negotiations after giving him a bit of a carrot rather than a stick. And apparently, Kushner and Witkoff highlighted three steps in the ambition of Donald Trump. The first one was to lift U.S. sanctions on diesel. The second was that Ukraine would suspend their strikes on Russian refineries. And the third would be to lead Moscow to understand that they would now need to make some kind of corresponding concession and return to the negotiating table. But the Ukrainians said we've never been informed. And it's clear that Moscow is just playing with Washington for a very simple reason, is that Vladimir Putin knows that Donald Trump lives on borrowed time simply because the looming midterms will in most likelihood be a failure for the Republican Party. And at the same time, having the U.S. going in the exact opposite direction to that that they pushed for for months, let's not forget that Donald Trump said that he imposed a 50% tariff on India just because India was still buying oil from Russia, is to further fragment what remains of the Western alliance. And in this regard, it's rather successful. And where does all of this leave Europe then? You mentioned the Western Alliance there. Here in Europe, you know, leaders have spent years trying to reduce their dependence on Russian energy. So what are the implications for European energy security, do you think? I think it's perhaps the most important question at the moment. We heard today that the EU is absolutely committed to standing up with with President Zelensky in Ukraine. I'm saying Ukraine because it's obviously the country at war and therefore the EU and Europe, because I also include the United Kingdom, which was one of the first country to say we stand up with with Ukraine, but also with President Zelensky himself. after Donald Trump said yesterday that he thought that it might be time for the Ukrainians to pick up another leader. And he was followed by no one in Europe, absolutely no one. So the US, especially Donald Trump, is very much alone in their call to isolate Zelensky. Where it leads Europe in terms of energy security at this stage, there might likely, at least that's what I heard from a few high-ranking officials in European capitals yesterday and today, might be discussions amongst Europeans to also lift the limits on diesel so they would tap into their stock so that they would also reduce the pressure on prices. And the second, of course, is to make sure that Zelensky is not weakened. And in spite of the very difficult political situation in France in Germany and to some extent in the UK, that the Europeans do not let the room for doubt in the ability of Ukraine to defend itself and to secure, let's say, its position throughout the winter to grow, because we have seen a rise in disinformation campaigns and obviously parties like the AfD and to some regard the National Rally in France are somehow getting into that crack and saying that it's obvious that ukraine is not strong enough and uh we might look at what gerhard schröder is doing uh befriending putin i'm saying this because the former german chancellor traveled to moscow uh when vladimir putin was celebrating his birthday and ending up celebrating the russian president's birthday in his presence and that it appears to go along with what we're seeing an increasing number of attacks on data centers do you think that's actually going to end up decreasing the kind of Russian propaganda, Russian disinformation campaigns that we have seen targeting allegedly various countries in Europe and also ahead of the US midterm elections next month? I think it's actually a fascinating question. To be honest, this bot thing is an incredible development, simply because according to the first analysis that has been conducted since the Ukrainians targeted this Yandex. So Yandex is the Russian Google, and they have several data centers that were targeted by the Ukrainians. Apparently, and that was shared, relayed by a Czech member of the European Parliament, apparently the number of messages in favor of the AfD, So the far-right party in Germany has shrunk since the attack on those data centers. So it is now clear that there is a correlation between those bots and the tremendous effort put by the Kremlin in supporting the movements throughout Europe that supports their interests and the kind of disinformation we have seen grow for the past five years. The question is, now that has happened, will the Kremlin find a way to rebuild it? Most probably. And the question is, what kind of conclusions will European capitals draw? I will confess something. I was in a European capital the past few days, And I had a heated discussion with a taxi driver who asked me where I was working. And I said I was covering Russia. And he said, so you're covering this so-called war. And we spent half an hour. And I tried to explain to him that there were evidence that Russia was a threat to Europe. And this man was an excellent example of how successful those disinformation campaigns have been. And when I asked him where he got his news from, obviously not France mostly so-called independent channels and YouTube channels, and some of which are supported by far-right movements in Europe with the funding, direct or indirect, of the Kremlin. So the big question is, will that happen so that these data centers were enabled to work, and therefore we've seen the number of messages and trolls going down over the past few days? Will that lead European capitals to change their strategy, to muscle up their efforts to counter that online disinformation? I think that remains to be seen. But in this regard, the Ukrainians have played well, because I think they've highlighted blatantly that there is a direct relation between those bots that cyber infrastructure supported, funded by the Kremlin directly, and all the movements that online have been supporting spreading Russian disinformation and Russian propaganda and supporting some political movements in Europe. And Gregor, do you think this is something that's likely to be playing on Vladimir Putin's mind amid these ongoing calls for him to get back to the negotiating table or get to the negotiating table and for some kind of concession when it comes to some type of ceasefire here with Ukraine? I very much doubt it. Vladimir Putin thinks that he has the upper hand. He knows that Ukraine, this winter will be the most difficult winter for Ukraine since the war started nearly five years ago. He sees that Donald Trump has a level of venality that makes it extremely profitable politically for himself, for Vladimir Putin. He has just won, at least on paper, the parliamentary elections, which is a way for him to show that he has the strongest, one of the strongest mandates he has ever had from his people. and that should there be a need for some kind of mobilization, then he would have the political legitimacy to go for it. So, no, I don't see any way that Vladimir Putin would in a way or another get back to the negotiating table, and certainly not with the current lack of political pressure that we see coming from Washington. Gregor, we'll have to leave it there for now, but thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening. That's Grégoire Roux, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programme. to chat with them.