Kilauea Has Spilled Lava 104 Times — USGS Says Episode 55 Is Likely Within Hours

Kīlauea has released lava more than 100 times — but Episode 55 still hasn’t begun.

Since September 7, scientists have counted 104 separate lava overflows from the north vent inside Halemaʻumaʻu crater. Some lasted only minutes. Others continued for nearly two hours. Lava domes grew into fountains, flows crossed the crater floor, and summit pressure climbed beyond the level seen before Episode 54.

Then the pattern changed.

In this DiscoverTube investigation, we examine why USGS scientists initially expected Episode 55 within hours — and why Kīlauea suddenly stopped following the forecasting model that had worked during earlier episodes.

We look at the 104 precursor overflows, record-long buildup, elevated summit inflation, continuous volcanic tremor, Strombolian-style bursts, sulfur dioxide emissions and the changing shape of the north vent.

The most important question is still unanswered:

Did those smaller overflows release enough pressure to weaken Episode 55 — or is magma and gas still building beneath the crater for a much stronger fountain?

USGS monitoring shows magma remains close to the surface, but scientists can no longer use inflation alone as a reliable clock for the next major episode.

Kīlauea is not following a timetable.

Scientists are following Kīlauea.

🌋 Subscribe to DiscoverTube for more Kīlauea updates, volcano science, Yellowstone, earthquakes and the signals revealing what is happening beneath the ground.

Do you think Episode 55 will produce another extreme lava fountain, or will Kīlauea continue releasing pressure through smaller overflows?

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