Corbin Burnes' Return: Pitch Count & Game Predictions

Congratulations, Corbin Burns, for coming back. What's he going to throw, Tom? 20 pitches? I mean, what's that pitch count going to be here? You're going to have to get to the bullpen. By what? The fourth inning? Third inning? Fourth inning? Right. He had to start with the Rivercats, where he threw 27 pitches, if I remember correctly. Then he had a bullpen session on September 4th, where he threw 46 pitches. So we're talking about, what, four days rest? 46 pitches. He should be at, like, 55 tonight. 55 tonight, maybe 60 if he's extremely efficient. But after that, we're getting five innings of the Diamondbacks bullpen in a place where it's 95 degrees with the wind blowing out. I like the Royals' team total over. Yeah. Good to see him back. Don't get me wrong. Sure. But we are—good to see him back. But, I mean, that bullpen of the Diamondbacks has had to pitch, I think, every day for the last two weeks, Tom. That bullpen is getting gassed because of the situation they find themselves in. And it just feels like, oh boy, buckle up in Kansas City, another hot night, total at nine, nine and a half. Yeah, that could be—that could be definitely runs in this spot here. So—but it's good to see that Arizonans can make a push here with Corbin Burns. I'd love to see him. You know, if they can make the postseason, it would be great. But I just don't—what are you—what do you think you're going to get? You have no idea what you're going to get over the first couple weeks, besides rust. I think that's safe to say, no? It is. And I can't—listen, they're a favorite tonight. It's minus 120. It's not like we're paying some dramatic price. I still wouldn't lay it. If you want to bet the Diamondbacks, you just better wait in-game, right? Wait for in-game. Wait until you get actual plus money on them. Are the Diamondbacks the better team compared to the Royals? Yes. But I'm not going to be betting into the line on the Diamondbacks, knowing I don't know what I'm going to get from Corbin Burns. If he goes out there for three innings and gives up five runs, I'm not going to be shocked. If he pitches two innings and struggles with pitch count and gets to 55 but he gives up no runs, I'm also not going to be shocked. So the range of outcomes for Corbin Burns tonight is way, way too big for me to have any level of comfort. I need to see at least one or two starts. And frankly, to your point, I think he could be a really solid addition for them down the line. And if they push into the postseason, getting five innings out of him or four innings is a huge boost for their pitching staff, which has been riddled with injuries. Him and Brandon Fott as the one-two could be really nice. I think it could work out really well for them, but they're going to have to make sure to handle business here down the stretch. And we know that the Padres don't have maybe one of the easiest schedules down the road here of trying to finish out the season. So Arizona is going to have to handle their business. Padres have the Nats tonight. And all of a sudden, Casey Mize is realizing the American League wasn't so bad because the National League is tattooing him all over the place.