Weekly Strategy Session - 1st September 2026

Okay, welcome everyone to the weekly strategy session. Now, this is where we sort of pinpoint the key economic numbers, look at the charts, see which instruments are lining up, and then see if we can sort of piece together a real fine plan, or if it's just a more of a day-to-day sort of trading opportunity. And that's sort of, you know, that's just the way it rolls each week. You've got to have, and if you're not doing this, I was going to say, you've got to have some sort of structure to what you're doing, right? And I won't go into too much detail. Stephen is our guest presenter today. So let me just give him the controls. I'll just transfer, you'll see a pop-up there, Stephen, make co-host. Okay, host tools or? Should be host screen, I think it is. I've got host tools down the bottom. Oh yeah, oh yeah, sorry, you have got those, yeah. So I'll stop share and you can share your screen then, you click on that at the bottom. Okay, yeah, yep. Let me do share, okay. All right, well, I'll just give you an overview to start with. Let me know how I'm going there, Brad, I haven't done this one before. So following on from last week with Kevin Walsh's comments at Jackson Hole that sort of put a bit of a spin on the markets. I think they weren't expecting the potential rate hike, but it has pushed our yields higher. So that falling into this week, what we're looking for, we've also got some data coming out of the US, the jobs. So that's really important as per your email you sent out on Monday. So really we've got the dollar index still a little bit high. We've got that escalation in US Iran. So the current, the majors I'd be looking at, we've got a stronger Aussie. I'd be looking at a Yen and a Swissy and then followed up with that economic data coming out of the US on, I think it's Fridays at the jobs. So all of that, we just have to see how this week plays out. So we've got lower equities. I think gold and silver also coming back. So yeah, we're looking for something else to drive the market. So my overview would be, we just got to look at the charts, follow the meta stock, and then look for opportunities that are going to line up. And then just follow Brad's strategy on the Traders for Traders website, which is looking at the signals. And if they do line up, then we put the EAs in play. So across the board, maybe that's what I'd be doing. I don't know if that sums it up enough, but that's my overview. That's pretty good. It is. And it's an interesting week, right? And I'll just jump in there. Well done. That was really to the point. And that's actually, you know what, it's a good example of just, this is it. And that's the plan. And that's it. Yeah. What can you see? Which screen? You got the meta stock screen? I've got your dollar Yen screen up there. Okay, I'll just get back out of that. So once again, we just go back to the follow the trail, which is probably the important, you can see the yields are pushing up a bit higher. Let me just see if I can get that one working. There we go. Yeah, that's important. You know, the bond market sort of really dictates everywhere else, doesn't it? With equities and the majors. So with all the information we got, we just got to follow your process. And I'm still working on how to streamline that a bit more. But yeah, we're getting there. So all good. And just on that too, see, just on your US Treasuries there, see all the red numbers on the left hand side, you've got the yields. So your US Treasuries, actually, I'll tell you what, I'll take control of the comm, and then I'll show you exactly what I'm talking about. Because you're hitting the nail on the head. Let me share my screen. We're just looking for opportunities. But we've got the geopolitical thing happening again. And then you've also got that, you know, that story of the yields going higher, which sort of puts a bit of pressure on everything. Yeah, that's right. Well done. Okay, so what you've got is here, see this section here, the daily percentage. And last, the price here. Now if they're red, price down, yields up. Right, that's just one way to sort of think of it. So if you see a lot of red here, it's different to everything else, right? So that means, and if you haven't been looking at the Treasuries, these things have really sort of popped. You're right. I looked at it on Monday, the markets, and I was like, hang on, what's going on? And then I'm like, didn't take long to work out that Kevin Walsh had sort of mentioned that higher rates are sort of on the way, right? And then that had a direct impact. I don't know what Don will be sort of pulling his hair out wondering what the hell's Kevin doing. But that's where we are. Now the Fed, okay, it's 52.6% chance of a hike, right? ECB, 100%. We've got the RBNZ this week, 100%. So they aren't really events. I mean, it does come back down to, so when there's no chance of a hike change, it really comes down to the comments and statements and these things. And they can be completely ambiguous, right? So just be aware, these are, you know, if it's a 60-40, yeah, it's a live event. Because it's 100%, you're not really, I'm like losing interest straight away. I mean, I will have a look and see what they say, but that's where it is. Now, let's just give it a little bit of shape around this. And I'll just go into the high impacting numbers. You got some numbers here out of the Eurozone, very mild. I'd call that mild. The US ISM manufacturing numbers, okay, that's a good monthly number that everyone ticks away at. So good to have a look at. The RBNZ, okay, 100% raising rates. So that's really a non-event. We'll come back down to their statement and press conference. And once again, they can come out and say, yeah, we're going to need to do more of this. But we won't do it straight away. And that's why I'm saying it can be a nasty thing if there's not too much else happening. You look at the Bank of CAD, I'll come back into that. I've got the same thing on. Interest rate tracker, you look at the Bank of Canada, 93.8% on hold. Okay, once again, we're not at that stage where at the crossroads. So you look at the Bank of Canada, right? And this is all good to know, right? But it saves you sitting around going, okay, I'll keep a close eye on the Bank of Canada. Once again, the press conference will have things maybe jumping around. But don't forget, the central banks are there to sort of calm things down. They don't usually come in unless they're looking to kick some heads in and say, we're raising rates and we're going to shove this in your face again next meeting. So you come down into Thursday, Bank of England monetary policy meeting reports. Okay, you might get some details there. Swiss CPI, I'll tell you what, there's not usually much variance there. So if there is some, it's worth having a look at. And as Stephen mentioned, the nonfarm payrolls, first Friday of each month, you get the nonfarm payrolls. And this is a head kicker. And we're at that stage every second month, the Canadian and the US employment numbers come out at the same time. Makes it very hard to trade the CAD. And you've got a lot more numbers there than I've just ticked the high impacting. If I come back up and hit medium, you'll see there's a whole bunch of different numbers there related to these things. I did jump over the ISM services. This is also called the non-manufacturing PMI numbers. So the PMI numbers are a good sort of look around what's going on in the market. So basically racing through that, and I did it on purpose because there's bits and pieces here in every trading session. So you've got the RBNZ, you've got the Bank of Canada, rate decisions, nonfarm payrolls. By the time we get through Thursday, Thursday afternoon, Europe, and definitely in North America, the market will start to simmer, and they'll be waiting to see what comes out here. Now, is it a trading event? In my eyes, not usually, not likely. But what can we get out of this? Why is the nonfarm payrolls important this week? Stephen, what do you think? Well, weaker numbers wouldn't probably stop the interest rate hike, potentially. And that is absolutely spot on, right? And what it does is... And that's what they want. They wanted to offset Walsh's comments from last week. Yeah, that's right. And so what you're trying to look for when the numbers, you look for what the central bank head is saying is like, we may have to raise interest rates. These numbers, if they come out really hot, okay, really good, well, then that really forces the hand. And what we'll see, we'll see the dollar rally. And you can sort of start to gauge there, how far does it rally? Well, you'll see it, the interest rate probabilities increase, right? That'll tell you because the number you can see beforehand, and where it starts to sort of take away. So that's exactly right. That's, that's a good job there connecting those dots, Stephen, because you look at that, I look at the main theme in the market, which is, you know, sort of funny, right? The Don is losing his marbles over the Iran situation. Oh my God, it's just ridiculous. But what Kevin's talking about, and we'll get to Kevin as well, but the Kevin Walsh is actually talking about higher rates. So that gives all the US numbers, it gives us a little bit of direction. So the manufacturing numbers, this is something to have a look at, because if it is a stronger or weaker, or just as expected, right, that is a real event to be looking at. And you can obviously click on the trade scenarios there to get a bit of an overview of what's going on. If we get stronger numbers, right, there's a whole bunch of instruments to trade, we get weaker, not so many, right, you get some indices, and dollar CAD. So, so stronger numbers, well, you got to think that goes with what Kevin Walsh is saying. Now, this isn't, and don't think, like, don't get all pumped up and think this is an inflation number. It's a number, right? It's probably a tier three, maybe tier two, tier three number, but it's, it's like a building block. So that can be important, then you look for any other US building blocks. And that's where I was sort of coming down to the services, right? First day, then, like this thing down here is just, frankly, as the better opportunities are where we don't have outrageous volatility. It's very disruptive, it's very hard to get into prices, it's very hard to set your trade plan, all these things, the services numbers will not explode, like, definitely not like the nonfarm payrolls. And, you know, they're sort of nice and pleasant. So you should get some, some ideas there, before the nonfarm payrolls, if the markets, you know, boiling in the US or not, to me, it's not, right? It's, I don't see it sort of boiling, but there's so much stuff going on, it just, I don't know if you saw, there was a news update here on Metastock before, I think it was, Nvidia was paying Anthropic, like $39 billion. $35 billion. Yeah. Like the investment in AI and stuff like that. I mean, I know it's, it's crazy, right? And there are some articles here about that. But anyway, that's where we are. So the main thing, right, we're coming to Tuesday, you've got, okay, interest rates in the US are higher, that gives us a stronger dollar. And you can see the dollar block. I mean, the Aussies still hanging in there a little bit with those strong CPI numbers. But, you know, generally speaking, it's, we're in a strong dollar situation. So, but we are seeing the equity markets go up, right? And obviously, this would be to do with Nvidia and everything else. But the yields going up as well, like it's, there's, there's weird things happening here. Like it doesn't usually happen that if we're expecting higher rates in the US, that the equity indices go up. All right, that's, that's where I'm sort of thinking, I would have thought, see how like, even on the hourlies, it's sort of just hanging in there drifting. I mean, the S&P is a little bit lower. This is like, it's, we're one good black swan event away from like, really getting some explosive action here. So look where these equity indices are on the dailies. They, mate, they are so elevated, you know, almost at record levels. We're looking at higher rates. It's a bit of a mismatch. So that's to me, that's an automatic sit back. Let's just wait and see how this plays out a bit. Coming to your charts, right? It's very easy to see that sort of strong dollar, but it's the dollar index has sort of pulled up a bit. We've got, you know, there's all these little crappy, little false breaks here all over the place, right? So just be aware, it's not amazing. Last week, we had a really nice trade there on Euro Aussie, or actually just stronger Aussie numbers. Okay. Now the Aussie, we stayed out of the Aussie, the Aussie went up a little bit, but the action was on the crosses. So that's, run with that feeling. If you've got a piece of that, that's what you want to be trying to sort of get a hold of again. And it doesn't happen every week. Like if we didn't have Trump jumping up and down like a pork chop, and Kevin Walsh, you know, this Jackson Hole symposium, as I said, it's sort of usually like a junket for all the central bankers and government guys. They love going over there, getting on the good wine. Here, he's taken the opportunity. We may have to raise rates in the US. Don't forget, it's a bit of a may, it's not like we are. So we have to see these numbers. And that's why the numbers are important. If we got really hot manufacturing numbers and non-manufacturing numbers, and also employment numbers, well then, you know what, the dollar's going to start charging. We aren't going to get the answers for that until later in the week. So what do I think here? I think we're going to remain in pretty sort of average trading conditions in the lead up to this, because we don't get the answers for a few days at the very least. So that's what I'm sort of thinking. You know what, I'm going to have a look at the, I don't think the GDP numbers, there's much in it these days at the moment. There's too much other stuff going on. The RBNZ press conference may be interesting. I'll probably have a look at that, right? I don't commit to trading. The Bank of Canada press conference, worth having a look at, for sure. Just to get the vibe of what's going on. And don't forget, as I said, these things are almost 100% factored in. Well, the RBNZ is, the Bank of Canada is just about there. So this is a reset from this time. They'll go, okay, RBNZ raises rates. Right. Now let's wait and see how things roll out from here. That's the reset button. So that's pretty much where we are, guys. It's like you look at the signals and I was having a bit of a look around. Dollar Swiss is sort of a little bit there. But you know what, looking at that, and if I just scroll up, we've seen this a lot, right? Yeah, it looks good. And then match it up with this sucker. You're like, I might have to wait here. That's all you're doing, right? That's all we're doing, waiting. Stephen, you nailed it. Any questions there, guys? Good job, Mr. Stevie. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. I enjoyed listening to you doing your thing. You did really well, actually. I think you can almost do it every week. It's very short and sweet to the point. Yeah, we just got to follow your system. That's what we got to do. Wait for opportunities. Well, it's all the process, right? And that trade, and I spoke to Kevin later in the week. The numbers just came out as they should. The market moves. That is normal market conditions, guys, right? You guys haven't seen much of that. And that is actually how it works every week. It should be every week. So then you're like, oh, here's a nice one. Boom. And you get the trade and you're in the cash and then you either manage the position or take profit or whatever you do. So that's what we're looking for. At the moment, this week, it looks a little bit different. I was just going to say, I want to just give you a quick update, the AI performance coach. I've got some videos, a whole range of videos in the quick start guide as well that I've just added. So you can actually get a bit more insight into what's going on down there. But we've got a performance coach, which is going to run through all your stats. And then you can also add some mentors there to your, basically adding them to your team. Now, each of them actually looks after a different instrument. Like May is the Asian desk, right? You can come in and check the components of what they're doing. Basically, you can get answers around, say there's something happening in the end. You can ask her and say, what is actually happening in the end? She's telling you the main driver and what's actually moving and how your performance is. So anyway, it's a little bit of, be interesting to see how this goes because the actual, the mentor side of things, this is where all the answers are. Now, there's one aspect here, and I'll be focusing on this a little bit more and giving you some more details. It's the, your edge score, right? Which measures your discipline, risk control, consistency and performance, right? Journaling your trades. So when you do do a trade, journal it, and that's going to add to this page and actually update your edge trader score. And the higher that is, the better your overall trading is, right? Performance is obviously a key aspect, but discipline, risk control, consistency in your process. Like you're saying there, Steven, you're like, you know, follow the process and the answers will come. Unfortunately for us, for a lot of this, a lot of the time, the process is being discombobulated. This is good. We've got the Fed talking, right? It creates opportunities across many instruments. This Mongo here is not good, right? That is not good. So don't think Kevin Walsh talking is awkward or anything. That is actually really good because it's the biggest central bank in the world. They are going to be providing trading opportunities for us going forward. We want to get this other crap out of the way and then we can sort of really sit back and place the trades on the good opportunities. And that's it. That's it, guys. So let's see how it goes. If anything, if I had to sort of sum it up, week sucks a little bit because there's a lot going on. But once we get through today, I think everything will calm down. Then we get into the RBNZ. You know, Wednesday, Thursday should be your primary days, right? That's where the markets have reconnected. There's structure, there's general movement. If there's not movement by Wednesday, Thursday, and you get an orderly move on your charts, right? Well then, you know what? This week, it's been a bit of a fizzer, as we used to call it. And you just sit back. Don't get frustrated. You just take it for what it is. So just start redrawing your trend lines and your charts. Know where the key levels are. And then we can look for the opportunity. Because once you draw the charts- This is what I was talking about last week. You could tell this week was going to be a fizzer from what we were looking at on the economic calendar, like in forward planning. So that's what I was trying to say. You can almost say, well, this week's going to be a slow week, so what am I going to do outside of that? You know what I mean? Because otherwise, you get like all steamed up for the charts. And there really was nothing there in the beginning. There might be something, but like you say, when you saw what I saw last week, what you pointed out, it just falls down through, and it's not really trading, it's just sticking the thing on and it happens. You know what I mean? So that is what you were trying to teach us how to do. So what I was trying to draw, you look at next week now, and start thinking, well, if what happens on Friday there, obviously, we don't want to hang on to trades over the weekend, or maybe we do, I don't know, on that sort of thing, it'll be guided by you. But it's then how does that feed into next week? You know what I mean? Yeah, that's right. Usually... I like to try and plan a whole month out of what I'm doing. That's the sort of business for me. I know what you're saying. You can't really move until the market moves. I get that part of it. It's out of your control. But at least you know what is good potential for what's coming up. And then your mind goes to, well, I'm just going to wait this out this week. And then next week, it looks like the good week. So I'm going to form all my life around next week, you know, for a great opportunity. Yeah, that's a good idea. And so the things that we can't predict is, like Kevin coming out with some stuff here on rates, but that you can put that into the computer. But you're right now, Kevin, I get a bit more of an understanding what you're talking about last week. Yeah, this week, it's a little bit disjointed. And it's a little bit more disjointed because well, this gives us a bit of something to focus on. Like it's almost giving us a bit of strong dollar. We'll see if the numbers line up. That's good. All the stuff you're pointing out here is like grappling at straws. It could go off. But what you're saying is it's not likely. So why are we playing with this stuff when we really should be playing with what we had last week, you know? And you know, decent account, put it on, away we go. Then you go home. That's what you call living. And that's what I'm looking for. Lifestyle, Kevin. That's what we want. Yeah, I'm just looking forward to living, not freaking staring at the chart. I love staring at charts. Don't get me wrong. But it does work out. This stuff is really good. Awesome. All right, guys. Thanks for joining me. I'm going to get a few things done. And then that was good. Well done, Stephen. Well done, mate. No worries. Who's up next? I'll find. What about Bobby? How's Bobby going? Is he ready yet or not yet? Bob's just rejoined us. So he might take a little bit of time. He might need more time. Okay. I'll find someone. Yeah, reach out in the Discord. We're always there to support each other, which is good. So let's do that. All right, guys. Have a good one. All right. See you, guys.