The defense tech boom has become a bubble

I do think a lot of venture capitalists are going to lose a lot of money in the defense tech boom. I think that's maybe inevitable. Procurement 101 is that everyone says the army buys technology too slowly and develops it too slowly. And that the defense primes are also in on that and everyone is incentivized to build as slowly as possible. And I think in certain ways that criticism is a touch unfair because a lot of the time the technology they build is extraordinary. That being said, there are also many, many cases where something built is extraordinary one out of four times. Like the F-35, for example, it's a stealth fighter jet that is a source of much controversy. A lot of money was spent to develop it and they don't always work. If you talk to a lot of folks in defense, they're very excited because they're like, oh my god, we can build all these incredible things. We have venture backing now. Even though the defense budget is huge, more than a trillion dollars, a very, very, very, very small percentage goes to startups right now. So it is very competitive and also most of it is still going to the primes. I think it's important to say, too, lobbying matters a lot in defense and a lot of, if you're talking about inexperience, one of the areas of inexperience is a lot of these startups do not have the lobbying capacities or anything even remotely close to the capacities of something like, say, Lockheed Martin. I do think a lot of venture capitalists are going to lose a lot of money in the defense tech boom.