Putin unsure he will survive August –rebellion against the Russian leader
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The Russian President has made changes to several key positions in the Russian Ministry of Defense. Behind this news, which was little noticed by Ukrainians and broke in early August, lies a true mystery. Those close to the Russian President fear a military mutiny , as Western intelligence agencies have previously reported. They consider it quite likely that the rebels will attempt to assassinate Putin using drones, pretending it was an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is known that the Kremlin considers the danger particularly serious in August. And this isn't just superstition associated with a month so fatal for Russia. There are many rational explanations. In mid-June, Putin visited Kazan. The pre-planned and announced Russia-ASEAN summit took place there.
This was Putin's first visit to the regions of European Russia in almost a year. Since November 2025, Putin has avoided appearing anywhere in the European part of Russia except Moscow. He no longer even vacations at his favorite residences in Sochi and Valdai. This is confirmed by intelligence data. The visit to Kazan was accompanied by unprecedented security measures . Mobile phone service and internet were jammed in Kazan. Navigation devices and mobile banking were impossible to use. Even SMS messages were blocked.
Electric scooters and bicycles were banned in the city during the summit. Courier deliveries were suspended, citing safety concerns. A security force was deployed to the city—thousands of Rosgvardia, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and Federal Protective Service officers arrived from other regions. To demonstrate his closeness to the people, Putin visited the Kul Sharif Mosque and the local cathedral during the summit. There, he allegedly interacted with parishioners. However, OSINT investigations revealed that the crowd of "pilgrims" consisted primarily of FSO officers in disguise , as well as local officials. Even so, Putin was accompanied by extensive security, including soldiers in camouflage and masks. This became a clear illustration of Putin's fear of a possible rebellion. According to Western intelligence, Putin fears an attempt to assassinate him using drones, as if it were an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In reality, according to Putin and his entourage, the possible attack would be organized by rebels in power and business elites fed up with the war.
The Western intelligence community reported this back in May . It is precisely during work trips that the Russian leader becomes the most convenient target. As a result, Putin has cancelled almost all regional trips. Currently, he only dares to appear in Siberia. The question of whether Putin will even survive until August 2026 is becoming extremely pressing. Among the likely rebels, the most prominent figure is former Defense Minister Shoigu. Putin moved Shoigu to the Russian Security Council, but he is believed to retain strong connections within the Russian Defense Ministry's leadership.
Among those who partially lost their powers during the latest reshuffle in the Russian Ministry of Defense in August, analysts single out Deputy Minister of Defense Alexei Krivoruchko . Unlike other Defense Ministry officials close to Shoigu, Krivoruchko retained his position as deputy minister after the major purge that took place in early 2026. This was because Krivoruchko was considered a bridge to major companies in the Russian military-industrial complex; he himself previously headed the Kalashnikov Concern. But in August, his control over the Defense Ministry's public procurement was taken away. Going forward, Krivoruchko will focus exclusively on the development of advanced weapons. Control over finances and contracts has been lost completely.
Now the only member of Shoigu's circle to survive his resignation is General and Deputy Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov , who oversees "special operations," or Russian operations, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. He was not affected by the repressions because Yevkurov is entirely focused on affairs abroad.
As for other members of Shoigu's group, they have been dismissed, some have been arrested, or are under investigation. This includes, for example, Ruslan Tsalikov, Shoigu's first deputy and right-hand man. Since March, Tsalikov has been under arrest for "creating a criminal organization," and his assets have been confiscated.
Other people belonging to Shoigu are also under investigation: Timur Ivanov, was engaged in military construction; Dmitry Bulgakov; Pavel Popov; Yuri Sadovenko, Shoigu's chief of staff, died in December 2025; Tatyana Shevtsova, Shoigu's chief financial officer, has been dismissed from the Ministry of Defense, but charges have not yet been brought against her.