Worrying signals to the Kremlin; Azerbaijan, Syria, Serbia take a tough stance against Putin

Worrying signals to the Kremlin; Azerbaijan, Syria, Serbia take a tough stance against Putin

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Doubts about the use of key military bases in the Middle East; a warm welcome for the Ukrainian president by a traditional European ally; an unprecedented display of defiance by the leader of a former Soviet republic. The past few weeks have dealt one blow after another to the Kremlin's hopes of maintaining its global influence as the war in Ukraine continues, writes The Times.

The publication reported that, Syria announced that the Russian Khmeimim airbase and the naval base in Tartus would no longer be under Moscow's exclusive control, and that these military facilities would be converted into "joint training" centers. These were Russia's only official military bases outside the former Soviet Union.

The article points out that this happened after Bashar al-Assad, a key Kremlin ally, was overthrown in 2024 by rebel forces and was replaced as Syria's president by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a commander in an Islamist-led rebel movement. Although the Russian military supported Assad for nine years, killing thousands of Syrian rebels and civilians, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops not to intervene when rebels swept into Damascus.

Syria called the agreement on bases in the eastern Mediterranean a "reorganization of the Russian presence" that would pave the way for a "new stage in Syrian-Russian relations."

While Syria stressed that the agreement was agreed upon with Moscow and would ensure the protection of mutual interests, it noted that civilian facilities at both bases would be handed over to Damascus.

Anna Notte, an expert on Russian foreign policy and the Middle East, noted that the likelihood that Russia will be able to use Syrian bases for its military purposes in the future is becoming increasingly smaller, but it should not be completely ruled out.

"Russia is very cautious about how well Sharaa will actually be able to maintain power and stabilize the situation in Syria. Russia is probably thinking, 'Let's see what Syria will be like in five or ten years. We'll just wait and see,'" she said.

Russia has used its bases in Syria to funnel supplies and fighters to the Afrika Korps – the Kremlin-controlled successor to the Wagner mercenary group – in Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and elsewhere on the continent.

The agreement stipulates that Moscow will retain limited rights to refuel military aircraft at the Khmeimim airbase, but beyond that, Russia has little reason to be optimistic, according to Nikita Smagin, an expert on Iranian affairs and Russian policy in the Middle East.

"The new authorities in Syria are gradually pushing Russia out of the country... At some predictable point, they want to get rid of the Russian presence. It's just not happening overnight. The Syrian authorities are acting quite pragmatically, and I would even say skillfully enough, to avoid damaging relations with Russia during this difficult transitional, still unstable period," he noted.

Russia has also lost influence in the South Caucasus, where Armenia and Azerbaijan – both former Soviet republics – are now moving away from the Kremlin’s sphere of influence.

The article adds that other traditional allies are sending the Kremlin worrying signals.

In particular, Serbia, one of the few European countries that has not imposed sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, last week hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on his first visit since the invasion in 2022.

One Ukrainian official called the talks between Zelenskyy and President Vucic a "slap in the face" for Putin and part of an effort to "pull the Serbs away" from the Kremlin.

The publication noted that Zelenskyy's trip to Belgrade took place after Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told Putin directly that it was time for Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine.

"It's a shame that young people are dying," Tokayev said during talks in the Siberian city of Omsk.

The publication noted that Putin, who repeatedly mispronounces Tokayev's surname during negotiations, appeared confused when the Kazakh leader made his call.

Putin has turned to North Korea for help in connection with the war in Ukraine and may rely even more on Pyongyang.

"A decision has been made to deploy 30,000 to 50,000 North Koreans to Russia. They are studying this war," Zelenskyy said on social media over the weekend.

Notte suggested that while the weakening of Russian influence might be welcomed by Western countries, it would likely make Putin even more determined to achieve Russia's goals in Ukraine.
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