Victor Davis Hanson: Iran May Be Preparing One Final Gamble

Iran is facing mounting economic pressure after roughly 160 days of war, even as repeated negotiations with the Trump administration have failed to produce a lasting agreement. Sanctions, financial restrictions, and the blockade are costing Iran hundreds of millions of dollars a day while its military, missile, and nuclear capabilities have been severely weakened.

With the midterm elections approaching, Iran may see political pressure inside the United States as one of its remaining sources of leverage. Higher gas prices, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and continued global uncertainty have made the conflict increasingly unpopular, creating an incentive for Tehran to prolong negotiations while looking for an opportunity to dramatically escalate the conflict.

The possibility of an Iranian “October surprise”—including attacks against Israel, Gulf states, shipping, or U.S. forces—raises the question of whether the Trump administration should act preemptively against Iran's remaining military capabilities while maintaining the economic pressure and negotiations that are pushing the regime closer to a breaking point.