Exploring Paul Skenes' Performance Dip and Game Odds

Paul Skeens, he don't look right to me. I don't know what it is, Tom. The velocity dip, the control issues, could this be a game worth backing the home dog here tonight? You got to wonder, why are the Pirates favored? Is it just based on name recognition from Paul Skeens? Because sure, the name recognition will get you there. But if this were the real Paul Skeens, would they be minus 110? Would we be looking at minus 110 and plus 102? I don't think so. I think we'd be looking at maybe not massive favorites, like not minus 200 on the road for them. But we'd be looking at like a minus 130-ish price, I think, on the road for Paul Skeens if he truly was himself. And I'd be even more interested in taking the Marlins. So I like the idea of backing the Marlins at home at plus money. I know it's not a super big price, but you give me Paul Skeens and under on an outs prop and plus money in the Marlins money line. I think that's what we should be looking at. Maybe he's a little bit better than he has been recently, but I don't think he goes super deep in the game. And I'll take the home dog that are desperate for a win right now. Yeah. And they are desperate for a win. It would be nice to get it done. I love Yuri Perez, but I'm telling you, that total two times sitting at seven. They just put Stowers on the 10-day IL, I believe. They were worried about that with a hamstring pull. Not great there for Miami, who is still hoping, I guess, maybe that they can get some sort of run going here towards the postseason. And he was really their big home run threat. And now without him, yikes. It could be over sooner rather than later, but should be a good one there. But seven feels a little light, although that bullpen, I think we can both agree that Pittsburgh bullpen better after the trade deadline than they certainly were prior. So maybe runs, I like Yuri, maybe runs will be very hard to come by here tonight. They should be. Pirates made some decent moves at the trade deadline, not a high volume of moves, but the moves that I really think they needed to make, I'm fading. I think I'm going to be fading the Pirates from here on now. Where they sit right now, they're six back in the wild card. I think they're seasoned, done just based on where they are. And I'll take the Marlins in this spot, plus money, maybe not too many runs throughout the game. I think the under seven and a half out there, I play it, you know, even if it was a little bit of juice and minus one 30 or so. Yeah, I agree. I think and I every time I've backed the first five in the total situation with Paul Skeens, he ends up giving three runs up in the first or second inning and I just can't figure it out with him. I really can't. But the good news is Miami, they got the right pitcher on the mound here. We'll see if they can get it done here tonight. That's going to be your 640 game.