Glide-Bomb Devastation, Dobropillia Worsens & Ukraine's Ultimatum Ends Quietly | Ukraine Map Update

G'day legends, I hope you are having a brilliant day and so far a great week. Now I need to keep this video shorter because it is my partner's birthday today, but we do of course have a lot to go over. Not only the war in Ukraine, the devastation that those FAB Glide munitions are causing, the deteriorating situation around Dobropillia and the end of Ukraine's 40-day long-range campaign that was promised to usher in a new negotiating position for Ukraine, if not an economic collapse of Russia, well that has ended. It began very loud, every Western media outlet sharing it, big promises of it, well it ended yesterday and we haven't heard a squeak. And what we have seen though is Zelensky, the senior leadership and command really changing their rhetoric about the need for negotiations. So we'll talk about that, I'll also give you a health update because there is a bit of a hurdle that we have hit. But I want to talk about this in the beginning and firstly just a thank you. Time for people like me on these websites and especially in the West, if we are any sort of contrarian orator, well it is going to be significantly limited. I just want to thank you guys for being with me here over the years and hopefully the years to come. What brings about this? Well we have seen Westwide, Telegram has been deleted off the app stores, both iOS and Android. You can no longer update it and eventually it will just go and will just sink into irrelevance. And of course you can see we are just stepping down and down and down into this serfdom to the supposed democratic parties and then these AI oligarchies, these technocratic states that are becoming that obfuscated under. It's democratic. Now I just wanted to leave you with a little bit of reading if this does come and I think it's important to really educate yourself in some of this, the signs of it, what you may see. And part of what you'll see between all these books isn't a snatching of power. It's not servitude under the hammer. It becomes that. But it begins with voluntary submission. So of course the road to serfdom, very very important. The difference between serfdom and slavery where you are owned by the land with the state, you're not a slave to it. Very important. Now we'll go through in this Fahrenheit 451 again looking at why are all books getting burned. And again it was voluntary submission trying to break these books down into small and small and smaller amounts. And then once people consumed tiny snippets of information, all the information or window into that information was seen as a threat. Of course you've got the classics of Animal Farm 1984. Absolute must reads again about where power sees. The threat of truth. The threat of looking through in clarity. And my favorite in all of this is Brave New World. This predates of course 1984. It's nowhere near as famous but I think is better and touches on that voluntary submission to power that we saw because people are seeking comfort and happiness over challenge, contentment and truth. That well I just want to be happy all the time. Take Soma the drug in this. I take this and I'm happy. I don't need kids because well they're made in a test tube. All of that I think some great reading there for you. Okay long introduction but you're used to that. Let's talk about this health update. Of course you know last week I saw my neurosurgeon. She was very happy with the scans. The oncologist he's also happy with the scans. But both of them over the last appointments they want me to take a drug called Vodacetinib at the top right here. You can search it yourself. The problem is to qualify for this there is a very strict criteria strict guidelines to take it for the protocol of the drug. Now this would do no harm to me at all and the drug is listed on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme the PBS. The problem is those guidelines criteria is so strict that I don't qualify for it. Why? Because I've done chemo. If I hadn't done chemo I'd qualify because I have. I don't. I've had this diagnosis for basically too long. Now my team they are trying to find a workaround whether it is Department of Veteran Affairs the PBS or actually contacting the company themselves to see if we can get a subsidy at to some degree for this drug as it has been showing substantial benefit for the people with the mutation that my tumor does have. The specific mutation it is targeted to that but I don't meet the criteria. Now if I could get a subsidy it'd be $40 a script. Now a script might be a week it might be a fortnight but 40 bucks we can afford that. Without it well the drug is $28,000 per month. The oncologist says I could potentially get it down to $60,000 a year if I qualify for a study but I need to take it for two years. So you're talking $672,000 or $120,000 and of course I do not have that sort of money. So I'll keep you updated to see how we go on that. That is Tel Aviv Tommy sort of money that he received to do some of that trip allegedly. So legends let's have a look at what we're going to update today. So of course we need to start with these FAB glide bombs. You know that these have been causing large devastation and I want to look at this from Mr. Molen today. A few days ago Russian FAB air guided bombs found the city of Poblograd in the Nepopetrovsk Oblast. This is more than 80 kilometers from the front line and 150 kilometers from the launching point which gives a very long range and this is the problem. All you're going to intercept these is they drop too many to intercept but also the Su-34 dropping these they never enter the engagement window of the aircraft or the systems on the ground to enter and if we have a look we zoom in on this and you will see how far back that these are being dropped. So we have Poblograd right back here and there's been others dropped at similar distances well behind the line. How did they manage to get it this far? It's the new UMPB-5R kit that allows the bomb to fly up to 150 kilometers or more. This is a real game changer if rear bases, command posts and stabilization points can be easily targeted as well as large cities. I happened to see FABs falling on Zaporizhia two weeks ago. Mr. Molen had visited Zaporizhia, what is becoming a front line city and this is a very destructive and scary weapon that really is a massive help for Russia. Ukraine still didn't find any means to counter these strikes. Well the means is to hit the aircraft in the air but they are just too far back and there's just not enough air defense or fence air capability to really have an impact on these and this has shown in this war the use of C-34, the use of glide munitions, it has shown the mass effect of these fighter-bomber style aircraft and I do believe we may see more aircraft of this sort of heavy lift capacity. Aircraft we saw two, three decades ago re-enter service around the world because when you look at the cost flight time per hour cost, the weapon tonnage that can be delivered, it is truly impressive and what we've seen is that modern air defense against states with modern aircraft, they are still super vulnerable. Look at even the vulnerability of aircraft over Yemen and Iran, not over Russia and Ukraine, far more modern air defenses and the Gen 5, Gen 6 aircraft, they are great, they are sexy but they're insanely expensive, they have limited lift capacity. I think we'll see more of a mix of aircraft come back into the fold, maybe initial waves carried out by your stealth sort of Gen 5, Gen 6 low radar sort of aircraft but then using these big fighter-bomber style aircraft, use them as artilleries. I always say FABs, I consider it a part of artillery, seeing these then having more tonnage delivered on target and in this, I've said Taiwan's about 180 kilometers away from mainland China with an aircraft like a Su-34 or equivalent with one of these kits, you could strike Taiwan, you could strike Taipei with basically never leaving the mainland to way, way cheaper tonnage than some sort of cruise ballistic missile. Let's continue because these are causing havoc and we see this from a Ukrainian officer, the enemy has actively started using long-range FABs which are striking targets beyond 40 kilometers away from the contact line. This is not a surprise as there have been isolated instances of the use of reactive FABs before but now the whole situation escalating to a more massive level and this was a month ago and it continues to escalate and this is the strike well back in Pavlograd, more than 80 kilometers from the line of control, 150 kilometers from the launch site, the launch lines from those aircraft. We see AMK, he shared this two days ago, that there was Su-34s launching glide bombs and more movements over areas approaching further to the front line than they have been previously. Active over Donetsk, Lugansk of course, flying in tandem the Su-35s with air-to-air and air-to-surface anti-radiation missiles covering the Su-34s dropping these high-tonnage FABs. Large-scale bombing campaign on Dobropillia, Druzhkivka, Slovyansk directions. We'll talk about how they are all deteriorating far faster than we thought they would be. AMK updated this today. Extremely unusual event occurred in the Zaporizhia Oblast. Su-34 aircraft flew within seven kilometers of the front line to carry out simulated launch maneuvers. They then looped back around and a few minutes later conducted the same simulation launch. He says Su-34s typically launch glide bombs from around 40 to 45 kilometers behind the front line to avoid being shot down by Patriot interceptors. It's possible this aircraft was probing to see if there'd be any air defense response by the Ukrainians. And as we have seen, as those Patriot interceptors have basically gone Winchester and even America is struggling with them in the Gulf, you'll see the efficacy of start to increase. And it was already very high with over 8,000 being dropped in a month. And these are truly devastating weapons. If you asked me in this war, which weapon has caused singularly the most amount of casualties, I would be pointing to the FAB family of weapons from the 250s up to the 3000s. You may not get the footage of something like a drone hitting a soldier, but you'll see a 1500 kilogram, a 3000 kilogram bomb leveling an entire complex. And we see more of this targeting around the primary front line Kramatorsk agglomeration. And I said to you yesterday, we saw an important bridge go down Slovyansk just here. And this is footage of it is not completely destroyed, but you can see the targeting of these bridges, these areas coming down that supplies out, of course, into the Siversk direction that is deteriorating in Mikhailovka, but also down into Kramatorsk and down further into Olexivko-Ruzhkivka, which is where the fighting has now moved to. There was Russian 4x4s move out into these sectors today. Okay, so those FABs are a truly devastating weapon. It is not only increasing volumes of them, the range is increasing. And if you're talking at 80 kilometers behind the line direction, of course, then Kharkiv, all of these areas, which have already been, of course, targeted previously, your command centers, your stabilization points, your logistics, everything just becomes more and more difficult. And the deliverable tonnage is far superior than to something like a drone or tubed artillery. I hate the word game-changing weapon because there's no singular decisive weapon, but those have proven through years on this battlefield. It's the weapon we haven't seen a defense built really capable against over a number of years. And I do believe we will likely see other states looking at what has occurred with those FABs and looking to how in some way can adapt the strategy of that super heavy, super long-range artillery. That's how I said artillery at 150 Ks of hundreds of kilograms and highly maneuverable. You don't have to have a warship firing a five-ton shell. You've got a highly maneuverable supersonic jet dropping bombs after bombs after bombs against the most high-tech air defense in the world with relatively none of them being dropped and well above the attrition rate of then the Su-34s. The UAC, not an aircraft company, is pumping out far more Su-34s still exporting them as well to what is actually being lost. More lost through mechanical failure which is to be expected. America for instance has lost a number of jets through mechanical failures this year or through then a Q80 ace. But let's have a look at a map I missed yesterday but also a new map today. Now just the way I did it I missed then Mr Suriak's Dobropillia update and of course this is all the primary sector that is deteriorating. Dobropillia, Pokrovsk in this direction. Even ISW said Pokrovsk may be in a little bit of trouble. It was in a little bit of trouble a long time ago but let's look at this. This map hasn't really moved here but we have heard a lot of rumors about this and looking at different maps and geolocations showing this has been deteriorating and this is Mr Suriak from yesterday saying there was a Ukrainian withdrawal in the direction of Novo Fedorovka out of the Krasnopodillia area. So this is this whole direction in here Belitsky through to Novo Dyaz. So we'll line up see where this road comes up to Novy Adonbas. Further up which is here that this whole sector above just to the north he's saying is coming under control of the Russians and that the Ukrainians are pulling back into areas like Novo Fedorovka pushed to the slight north of here and we have Dobropillia. Him showing this area to the east is coming not only under control but then further infiltrators into the Dobropillia direction. So keep an eye on this area as it does deteriorate as this is incredibly important for Kramatorsk, Slovyansk supply into these sectors but also then heading directly out to the west as well. Now we have a final map here from Mr AMK and he's saying the situation on the Dobropillia direction is likely even worse than my map currently shows. I'm still clarifying certain details so I'm sure we'll get more details. Now he is a little bit more reserved on where is red as to where is grey than say Mr Suriak. So Suriak puts this all in red where AMK has a lot more grey this area that is no colour in here but again Belitsky coming a majority under control Svetlana out into these directions near Dobropillia and movements rear into Novo Fedorovka as well as grey zone heading to just to the northeast of Dobropillia. Again you can see as well in the direction near Privyot this then coming under further control in the direction of course of the primary front which is Kramatorsk and Slovyansk and as we went over yesterday this area which basically didn't move for a long time in the past two weeks is really showing signs of strain and I heard a quote today from Thucydides. I'll paraphrase this it's not the gates that hold the men it's the men that hold the gates. Speaking about you can have all the fortifications in the world but if they're unmanned it's going to be a problem and I do believe what we are seeing is still the crisis of a lack of manpower on the front line. I think it was buffered for the first half of the year but again as I've said you will eventually pay the piper and I think this is the change in a lot of the rhetoric reporting comments that we have seen coming out of Ukraine's senior command and leadership and I do believe this is one of the reasons we are seeing Zelensky actually rejig the command and leadership is so he can make more difficult decisions without threatening his power or his decision-making process. He's from RBC Ukraine that a report from a meeting of Ukrainian ambassador Zelensky saying Ukraine will do everything possible to ensure the Russian war ends before the beginning of winter 2026. Quoting him saying we'll try very hard to make this happen before winter in the fall but we clearly understand who we are dealing with and that Putin hopes to drag out this war further he's preparing mobilization and new strikes now again we need to add logic reason rationality to this if one side is looking to drag out the war make it longer but you're also saying that protraction will lead to economic collapse militarily imminent collapse walking out of Crimea you can see where you have massive contradiction in this okay if the initiative truly did flip 180 degrees in the past six weeks and the economy was imminently about to collapse and the Kremlin was about to be raided of an internal overthrow you wouldn't be talking about we need to end this war ASAP so that's what Zelensky is saying this is what advisor Mikhailo Polodiuk is saying Zelensky proposes a ceasefire in the air an energy truce a freeze of the war along the front line and the start of difficult negotiations he's also ready to meet Putin as I've said Russia at this point they will not be looking for a freeze of the war along the front lines Ukraine can't afford that either you can't have a freezing front line with five kilometers two major cities I'll talk more about this but of course air energy truce well if you've got no ballistic missile interceptors and one country is having a shitload of ballistics it's going to be hard to have that truce Budenov former spy chief but now advisor with Zelensky has said I hope this winter will be our last in our war but we must get through it with dignity and unity that is the only thing that can save us in all other cases there will be problems so you can see the changing of rhetoric we need to have an end by winter not wanting to go through another winter or there will be further problems now according to Zelensky it's impossible to predict 100 certainly with all the diplomatic efforts long-range sanctions strikes middle strikes and other sanctions from partners will work we've been promised that this has been and is working for a number of years but let's have a look at the actual situation Ukraine is in a difficult situation they have basically no pack three interceptors there is a worldwide shortage we'll speak more on that no plaque sea access this is costing Ukraine about 70 million dollars a day but also limiting imports of fuel causing your own fuel food issues there too there's an overall failure of the 40-day air campaign it doesn't mean that a lot didn't go bang it doesn't mean that Russia didn't face large problems but we saw that campaign end and none of those systems were on their knees and what we're also seeing is not only this lack of interceptors access to your ports as well as your campaign your promised campaign falling out but the front line which is deteriorating in the most important sectors far more quickly than expected looking like the battles for Kramatorsk and Slovyansk will start in the coming weeks or months in my opinion this is the real reason we saw a reshuffle of government it wasn't because Sersky and Ferov couldn't get together no it's to install those and remove those who may oppose Zelensky difficult decisions and remove those who are too popular and may threaten his power internally I see that Zelensky has two options here and two very difficult options I'm glad I'm not in his position firstly negotiate a settlement the biggest cards Ukraine has on the table is Kramatorsk Slovyansk these will be the bargaining chips to increase concession from Russia is you take these without the fight but we gain x y or z concession if you believe that Ukraine and Russia are entering a negotiation at this point in time a real negotiation not a 5.6 point 10 point 15 point 25 point wish list if a real negotiation that would actually achieve an outcome Ukraine is not holding the upper hand in it at the moment regardless of what the media is saying even two if you want to talk about territory well one side holds zero kilometer squares of Russian territory Russia hold 110 000 kilometers of Ukrainian territory and advancing so that's number one is negotiate a settlement it's going to be very difficult number two is enter winter with extremely limited air defense meaning Russian ballistics will hit whatever they want and the energy grid unlike years prior may be absolutely vulnerable to complete collapse a more restless population as we have seen more demonstrations on the street and the entry to battles of Kramatorsk Slovyansk incredibly costly urban battles and in my opinion Ukraine with their manpower issues cannot afford these battles what they also can't afford is a Russian mobilization it's somehow a popular idea that floats around the information space that Russian mobilization is a good thing for Ukraine and what I've said is another 100 000 500 000 million men entering the war is by no means a good thing for Ukraine is it going to be unpopular in Russia yes okay that's a complete other thing too now you've got a quarter million more men on the front line and this is where you'll see the intellectual dishonesty or even the intellectual or the dishonesty of patriotism of some people going yeah but then they'll kill another x amount of Russians in military terms a state with a far greater population going to a mobilization against you is by no means a good thing a large motive uh large mobilization like this will lock in Russia to more years of war and hundreds of thousands more men on the battlefield and you will see the front line move in that direction now of course to us who don't just swallow the absolute bullshit and the complete um propaganda but the kool-aid drink that you know Ursula and Kayakals are serving us it's not the party with the initiative that seeks a negotiated settlement it's not you're the one who if you have all the initiative you're moving all this and it's about to collapse you're not then seeking to end it if you believe that if you believe the media that Crimea is about to imminently collapse the Russian economy is about to fall out the ass why would it be Ukraine with this rhetoric and not Russia okay we need to be realistic about this too and these cities I don't know if Ukraine can afford the urban battles that will actually take place in this without risking not losing the cities but far greater than losses beyond this because of the loss that would occur in these this is why I've called them the final battles we spoke about that air defense and people say well what about Ukraine making the patriots I was told from Mr D that 30 to 60 days we would see Ukrainian domestically produced patriots intercepting Russian ballistics well that time frame is up and we said well no that's not going to exist and US ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said this that Washington's unlikely to reach an agreement with Ukraine on the joint production uh by for this winter a long-term production agreement will not be concluded before this winter so we'll continue working on it we do not allow anybody but the US manufacturers to make those in the United States now I doubt if we would ever actually see a pack three interceptor produced in Ukraine but even if all the hoops jump through with Raytheon and Lockheed and of course the export controls all of this the tooling up the factories the specialists everything we're not going to do it when ballistic missiles can hit anything okay you want to build a factory to protect from ballistics because you've got nothing to hit those ballistics aren't those ballistics going to strike the factory in which you're doing that weird I know it's a long long process even Germany Japan far more modern they have taken years and years to be able to produce this type of system and a far more trusted state also but let's talk about something that flew under the radar the conclusion of the 40-day special military operation is coming from Mr Thorkell today being yesterday the 3rd of August marks 40 days since Zelensky launched the 40-day special military operation aimed at exerting influence on Russia and compelling it to end the war on June the 25th so let's get strong terms during a special address issued an ultimatum to the president of Russian Federation Vladimir Putin the world's leading news agencies and major portals in Poland and abroad picked up on it so everyone picked up on this this ultimatum of 40 days you're not going to survive this this will be what draws to the table well that has now ended the economists wrote at the time for slabs for that period is by it is believed that is precisely the 40th day after death the soul finally departs this world now I'm not an operational security genius but releasing a trailer for your offensive and then a special ultimatum address like this might not be the best way to go about it before when on June 25th therefore Zelensky wrote on social media I made a new wave of drone attacks intend to force Russia to sit down at the negotiating table was widely interpreted a meanwhile so as conclusion for the 40-day Ukrainian special military operation went unnoticed by any Polish or global mainstream media it can somewhat be compared to the situation where someone loudly farts at a large helicopter party and all the guests despite the slowly spreading unpleasant smell for the room pretend that nothing happened and how often have we seen this from the media and even those who put themselves like to say that they are analysts the 40-day special operation ended in the same kind of flop the three-day Russian counterpart at the start of the full-scale war although it was American analysts who said about these three days not the Kremlin not the Russian side although they did predict my opinion that Ukraine would fall far more quickly than it has the Ukrainian side along with launching an unrestricted air campaign against targets in Russia it only failed to strengthen but actually weakened its position in any potential negotiations with Moscow I agree with that it was unrestricted it did cause effect but it actually weakened positions at potential negotiations because it showed the vulnerability of armed states as well even smaller states starting all that war with Russia severely complicated the path for any subsequent agreement so this all-out long-range campaign at the same time was a reckless act as Kiev went for an exchange of blows despite having a strength for only one round and this is the problem with deterrence is if your deterrence is against someone who can influence far more damage that deterrence doesn't work this is exactly what we saw in the Black Sea yes Ukraine could shut down a lot of the Sea of Azov traffic in the Black Sea but it does not have the same capacity that Russia does to close the Black Sea not only in ability for kinetic lethal strike but also your only ports are here where Russia go well **** this is a massive pain in the ass well we'll push it out through another port in the far north the far west or far east that they still exist there as a result the Ukraine side in subsequent minutes of the duel lost the ability to export goods by sea and created its own fuel problems of course we saw pulling apart of gas station networks of basically everything from Kharkiv down to the Donbass with no fuel stations left and depletion of PAK-3 interceptor missile stocks now I think this was more so the war in the Gulf and America's war against Iran that really depleted these but we did see an uptick in ballistic missiles too leading to the depletion of PAK-3s more quickly but we would have likely seen that regardless it rendered the entire territory of Ukraine completely defenseless against ballistics in practice this means that Ukraine's energy system will collapse entirely in the winter of 27 and Kiev is fully aware of this hence Zelensky's recent visit to USA his unrealistic request to is also why Zelensky said publicly today straightforwardly that Ukraine will do everything it's about to end the war before winter I think there is an understanding of if we enter these with no protection against ballistics it's in a real struggle as well as whilst the battles haven't officially started for of course Slovyansk their cards on the table once they fully begin of course like physical there they're not going to be on the table anymore remember as Mr. Big Surge said 12 months ago those exist as cards on the table for now but they could be removed off the table but if Ukraine want to play them they have to play them in such a situation how can the Ukrainian side continue to pretend to negotiate from a position of strength Kiev had such position in the war briefly in March 22 when the second army were blocked in the left bank part of the capital and consequently found themselves in a difficult position now this is somewhat I agree with and disagree with on Mr. Thorkil it was a difficult position but this was not anywhere near a large enough force in any dreams to actually be able to take the capital more so than a distracting force from the primary forces in the east at the time ironically the Ukrainian side through the efforts are in Istanbul did release did reach a capitulation agreement I don't think it was a capitulation agreement I think actually given the battlefield at the time and what we saw in Istanbul early 22 it was actually a very fair agreement and likely agreements now are going to be far worse than that but hundreds of thousands of men killed down the line and millions upon millions of people leaving the states and tens to the hundreds of billions of dollars spent what is going to have major political problems when hang on we had something better that someone like Boris Johnson threw out now Ukrainian strikers did have an impact on Russia absolutely they did against refineries against mid-range but it especially was against civilian fuel what we never saw and what I said is war is holistic you need to be able to turn this into meaningful battlefield or political changes and this is not what we saw we didn't see this huge impact whether economically on fuel etc actually translate into meaningful battlefield or political changes instead it seems the final act on the 40th day was using a sui bomber in Moscow what's not a great sign of winning if you're willing to use that sort of tactic now I often wonder how the Ukrainian general population just average Ukrainians or the alt-nationalist groups will react if there is a worse deal takes place or furthermore not only the Ukrainians but this war has led to a more powerful Russian military experience different weapon systems development of tactics doctrine manufacturing maybe not here and now but short term long term will be substantially more powerful than when it would you rather fight 22 russia or 26 russia 2022 2026 that says a lot and once the war ends and manufacturing is just backfilling everything is already overfilling at the moment again what we will see is well how will the European states act to this because we've continued to see them talk about there's going to be a war in 2030 we must be prepared etc etc will these states who not only paying the salaries of then the Ukrainian politicians but have complete control basically here on the ISR to military will they actually allow Ukraine to stop the extension of Russia whilst they prepare because what they are seeing and they say it straight out is basically we're using you to fight Russia here because we are not ready to fight them over here so we need to fund you fund you fund you basically use as a proxy Boris said that straight out after ruining the negotiator he said it's a proxy also will they actually let them finish that war knowing it's going to be more powerful because they see a war coming now I don't believe there's going to be a war coming but this rhetoric could actually usher in a war that was never going to exist because we see this rhetoric about we're going to be ready to fight them in 2030 well if someone's saying we're going to fight you in four years once we're prepared so we need to have this so in four years we're going to fight you and beat you could we see Russia carried our again there's so many contradictions in this there's a lot of russophrenia which Russia's about to collapse and take over the world at the same time schrodinger's russia all of this but you can see the problem of where ukraine zelensky where he may want to move where budinov or these others may want to and the influences from america from europe and internally as well now ukraine's campaign would have had far greater success if not say i'm not hamstrung by america america's been using and its allies pack three interceptors in the gulf like candy firing them off and now letting one through letting offensive systems through because they're so short on these interceptors furthermore if the stratocom was was open like hegseth likes to bang on about and it's not if it was open and oil didn't skyrocket in price russia wouldn't have been making these huge profits from increased oil price it was very funny because america can basically fully facilitates these strikes into russia far more than is being reported like the facilitation of these long-range strikes it's completely america all but maybe pushing the button but it also reduced the impact so it helped strike these facilities but it massively reduced the impact with having **** all pack threes to send and increasing oil profits for russia having record profits because of down in the straits being closed so you can see the huge problem that ukraine is facing and will we see a negotiated settlement by winter well the problem is it's going to take two to tango and where russia has maybe their aspiration where they could actually they can see themselves physically militarily taking why would they take less than that if they see that militarily and i i analyze why i assess that they could take slow down scrambles at large loss but militarily they have the capacity to do so why would they negotiate for any less it's not going to be a freeze along the front line potentially there could be swaps of this territory here for reducing the threat on sumi and harky because these areas are under but if you are of the opinion that ukraine's going to be stepping into these negotiations with the upper hand well it wouldn't be ukraine pushing for them more hard than the russians we just know this for a fact it's it's rational okay i want to fight someone who's far bigger than i it's going to be me maybe saying hey let's not ******* punch on but we will see there's a lot of forces acting here and we've heard a lot of these old nationalist groups saying we will not stop fighting so that's going to be it could be a big mess we've also seen russian russian groups and troops say that well if we don't take these areas we will be bloody cracking the sads on the front line as well and we you could see further actions i think this ball is going to get a lot more messy before it cleans up so you know it's funny to see the rhetoric going from crimea is about to be walked into because of some fuel restrictions and some limited ad but at the same time where the leadership is saying we can't step into another winter that is rapidly approaching with no defenses against ballistics and not only against ballistics but those fabs being able to be dropped out to pavel grad was over these far far areas would of massively impact supply of these areas command point stabilization everything with the tonnage of deliverable significantly more because it's a form basically of artillery than anything else so the war i feel in the last two weeks we've really seen that mid and long range strike campaign which obfuscated some of the battlefield realities starting to pay the piper once again legends look after yourselves have a great day i'll speak to you tomorrow thank you