Is Penix really the next Love? | Falcons Deep Dive

What is going on? It's Alex coming back at you with another video. And today we're going to be doing the Atlanta Falcons 2024 deep dive. If you are new, feel free to like, comment and subscribe. Feel free to go check out all the links in that link tree because it makes it easy for you to go and check out my Twitter where I post there the most I post here almost every single day. But I post there multiple times a day, including all 22 tapes. So check that out. But also, it's just a great way to take advantage of our sponsors. Feel free to go do that. There's a lot of site specials actually that are happening right now, including for week number one for the NFL season. Every single week, underdog fantasies giving out pretty much use it or lose it specials. So feel free to take advantage of that as soon as possible because you only get them once. So super excited for that. Just feel free to click that top link in the link tree and it does everything for you. Sends me 60 bucks, but I promote the brand because I like them. They don't force me to. So let's get right into this, though. Starting out with the draft class breakdown to be draft class breakdown roster breakdown, as well as a record prediction all in one video. But it was probably the least favorite of the drafts. And I'll explain why. Unfortunately, this is no like brother tries to no longer my actual favorite pick based on, unfortunately, the injury. But I wanted to be able to go back and re-explain my initial reactions. And we'll we'll discuss everything in due time. Currently, my favorite pick most likely would end up being Rook. But even Rook, I mean, I love Rook to death. It's just, dude, that was an expensive pick. But we'll talk about that in a second. Michael Penix, the first pick. I like Michael Penix. I liked him to Atlanta, actually, as a matter of fact. The logic just didn't make sense. It just didn't. So you might say, oh, well, I mean, we have a long term plan. We're going to Jordan love this. Michael Penix is older. He's somebody who has relatively poor lower mechanics. He has a cannon of an arm. But he also has injury history. So you're getting someone who is like you'd be trying to maximize their career by playing them maybe one year in. And if Kirk Cousins were on a different contract, it'd make 100% sense. But you paid Kirk Cousins with the awareness that this was the guy that you're probably going after. So maybe Penix wasn't a bad decision, but then it'd be bad to go after Kirk for the amount of money, especially guaranteed that you ended up giving him. So just the timelines didn't make very much sense, especially at pick eight. I feel like you could have traded back and maybe gotten something. But I mean, especially with the revelation of Braylon Trice, hindsight is always 20, 20. You could have ended up maybe moving back significantly and getting Dallas Turner, Liatu, Lahtu, which the edge course still needs a lot of help. But Michael Penix himself is not a bad pick. He's had his flashes, but he does have his lows. We like we like to talk about his highs, but he does have his lows as well. Did at Washington. He did even in his first preseason game. He had a beautiful, beautiful pass there, though, down the right sideline. And that's awesome. That's the best part about Penix is those big plays. But I'm really wanting to see a little bit more consistency. I did see some of the dips as well as some of the peaks. And, you know, it's good to see the peaks, though. That's super critical. It's good to see those peaks. And I'm hoping that it just remains more consistent in the peaks than the troughs. Rook, I like the pick. The problem is y'all spent some major draft capital moving up. Slipping my mind at the moment, but I just remember the amount that you had to spend to get up there relative to like the actual pick was ridiculously high, especially with, you know, pretty sure Johnny Newton was on the board at that point. Maybe he was. I think he was taken right before that. But I digress. Like Johnny Newton was just taken. Then you end up spending a lot of draft capital to move up to select Rupert Rojo, and they took the extra third round pick that y'all have. Eighty one. Like that was just a kick in the nuts for me. And I love Rook. Rook was a top 40 player for me. And so you got good value with the player. But, you know, also, I wanted him to be able to play some hedge and I'm hoping that he could. But it doesn't look like that's the vision for him. Third round, Braylon tries at the moment of the pick, which is what the grades are for. The grades are to reflect on how I felt during the draft. It was a great pick because I was hoping he'd get back up to 275. And that was very hopeful to get up to 275 because he dropped to 245 in the offseason after he had a really, really good season. Two seasons, might I add, maybe even three. I'm forgetting the statistics that he had the year before, but the past two years were excellent for him at 275. Who cares if you're not an elite athlete? I mean, we saw in the first round that, you know, Darius Robinson didn't test out phenomenally well. And, you know, the talent on the field at that size was what got him really drafted. So like for me, I saw that. I'm like, OK, maybe he was just trying to test. Well, he's still 245. So I'm really, really confident that D minus is a really adequate grade given the amount of capital and like just the asset management that you all have pretty much invested in this past offseason. And you guys are going to come at me and say, hey, you know, we're still championship contenders, yada, yada. And you are. But when you almost are a guaranteed playoff threat and you mismanage assets, you crush your ability to have a guaranteed Super Bowl window. And theoretically, it's still there. But there's a lot more that has to go right. Then if you ended up actually addressing the draft the way I thought you should have, which first round would have been Dallas Turner layout to law to Dallas Turner, in my opinion, in round number two, addressing maybe a corner position, you could even gotten Cooper to Jean, but. You know, there's some health concerns there. You could have gotten Kamari Lassiter at your pick right there. You could end up getting Kool-Aid McKinstry, who is now on your division rival, the Saints. Like you're still looking for that boundary corner, too, especially with the contracts coming up. And then you could have addressed quarterback with Spencer Rattler even in the fourth round. You could have gotten Brandon Dorless or Braylon Trice. You could have doubled up at Ed Drusher if you wanted to. But the asset management just was not there. Given the spot that y'all are in, you're not a rebuild anymore. You're not. You're not a rebuilding franchise. You're a good franchise. That's a playoff contender that had the chance to be the leader, in my opinion, for the Super Bowl. And it was just massive asset mismanagement. But back to the draft class itself. Brandon Dorless, I thought, was a very solid pick, very versatile. Someone who is similar to Rook Aroro, a hybrid edge defensive interior player, hence why I list him as the line. JD Bertrand didn't knock my socks off, but he's a good linebacker. You know, he's a good linebacker. And at 143, not bad. I like it. Jace McClellan, I think, had some injury concerns, but he was a running back that I quite liked as well. Then you got Casey Washington. You know, that was one so far. He's actually looked really good comparatively to where he was drafted. You know, it's one week into preseason. Whoop-de-*******-do, right? Like there's some dudes who are just ballers in the preseason. Can you pick it? But I'm a Steelers fan, if you can't tell. But Casey Washington, to me, when I actually liked his teammate better on Illinois, who he slipped in my mind, I think it's Isaiah Williams. To me, I thought, again, there were also some other players like Brennan Rice on the board didn't really make much sense. And then Zion Logge, he just never stood out to me. I mean, I just thought that these were and it wasn't actually they weren't bad picks. Like you didn't get bad players. That's the ultimate story. But, you know, given the position your franchise is in, you needed difference makers and only a couple small ones to be. In my opinion, I would have put them put you guys arguably as the Super Bowl favorite. I like to roll the dice sometimes. And, you know, some of the guys at the top are getting a little bit weaker. And if you hit this draft properly, I think I would have put y'all as the number one. In the third round, I was saying like, oh, maybe another edge wide receiver. I really did not appreciate the asset management when it came to the draft. And, you know, you guys might not have gotten busts, but you're not a rebuilding franchise. You don't have room really for, you know, mediocrity or, you know, not super impactful players. The ones who will make a difference on your roster this year when your Super Bowl window is relatively open would be those difference makers like Dallas Turner. So, you know, it was just a I think it was a mismatch of vision and current status. Now, continuing on, we'll talk about the offense here. We'll go from skill position to the line, and then we'll go from a line to skilled position. You know, I think I might have slightly overrated your guys' offensive grade after, you know, like looking at it, I'm being like a pretty damn nice here, but I'll leave it as is. So Kirk Cousins, technically Michael Penix as well, depends on how Kirk is going to be recovering from his Achilles injury. You know, if Kirk can stay healthy, he's been super reliable for a very long time. You know, just somebody who I like a lot. Great personality, someone who I fully support. So I'm a fan. I'm a fan. Bijan Robinson, the GOAT. I mean, he was fantastic. The fact you drafted him so early. Again, it was interesting because at that point you weren't in that window. But since you acquired Kirk Cousins, like it makes sense in hindsight. Again, if you had a draft this year that represented one that would have supported a running back at eighth overall the year before. But, you know, Bijan Robinson is fantastic. You got Tyler Alger backing him up. And then, I mean, not to mention Jace McClellan, Avery Williams, etc. You have a really good running back core. Then you look at the receiving room. It should have had a, you know, Rondale Moore, unfortunately. Pretty sure he's out for the entire year. It's it's a travesty. But Ray McLeod ain't too shabby, man. He is not too shabby. I like him. He's been a reliable gadget weapons. Why he's still, you know, viable on a lot of rosters. This is based off of our lads right now. So things are subject to change, but still worth mentioning. But Drake London's fantastic. You know, another top ten pick of y'alls. And he was really, really, really reliable there at USC and still reliable. Now, Darnell Mooney, free agency acquisition. You know, he had a down year, but you got him on a really solid contract. Someone who I think that is a really nice one to punch there with Drake London. And then you got Kyle Pitts at tight end. So, you know, Kyle Pitts can unlock himself. I think that would be a massive, massive W. So for me, I'm a big fan of that. I mean, looking, I'm trying to double check if Austin Stogner. He is still technically there. So spoiler alert, you also get to see a little bit of the UI changing right there. You can see a little behind the scenes. But yeah, you still got Austin Stogner there as well. Taylor Heineke on a contract year. So overall, I mean, it's a really, really good squad weapons wise. Offensive line is pretty damn rock solid. Matthews is reliable. Bergeron, good kick in from tackle to guard. Dallman, semi underwhelming. But you know, that's the worst of the best offensive line, arguably in the NFL. Chris Lindstrom is a freaking rock solid player. Caleb McGarry, you know, he's been pretty damn reliable as well. So overall, a really good roster, especially for Kirk Cousins to have another really good O line. Super crucial at his age coming off an injury. So you guys are giving them a really good chance to succeed. Now we look at the defense here. You know, I'm being a little bit generous with that B plus grade. I'll admit, I'll admit. But you know, I still like, I like you guys, man. I mean, people will try to say I don't like the Falcons. I like the Falcons, man. I had my first jersey was a Michael Vick jersey. It's like, it is what it is. I was a sucker for him. So looking at the defensive line, David Onyemata, I like him a lot. Same thing with Grady Jarrett, Zach Harrison in there. Brandon Dorless, Rook Ororo. That's a really good defensive interior, arguably the best unit. But luckily, you guys have some really, really good super weapons outside of that. The edge rushing core does need some work. It does. You know, I could have put that as the worst unit is the edge group. Arnold Evichetti is someone who I still fully believe in. Lorenzo Carter, he's up for a contract year. Maybe that will give him the extra push, especially with Braylon Trice now out. Like, maybe these guys can take a step up. But when I started seeing some news about a trade request from, why am I tripping up on his name now? Hassan Redick. Like, this was like the team I thought of right away that could use that little infusion of goodies. But you know, Joe Douglas already came out and said F you to that idea. Then you got Caden Ellis and Troy Anderson inside linebackers. I think they're super duper underrated. People try to crap on this linebacking core. I mean, the fact that you also have J.D. Bertrand backing them up, that's a good, healthy rotation of dudes who are all underrated. Safety wise, Richie Grant doesn't really get me too crazy. DeMarco Helms is on PUP right now. So it is what it is. But you know, you have, I think that's your most lacking position. Then you got Jesse Bates there. Fantastic free safety. Great acquisition. That's a general, that's a field general. Not many safeties can really garner the respect and like the worthiness of the amount of money you spend on them. Like some of them you can, but Jesse Bates was a guaranteed success in my opinion, and he has been fantastic. Corner wise, you got AJ Terrell, who's up for a contract this year. I'm worried about that. But it is what it is. And then, you know, pretty much the whole entire starters are listed as players that need a contract. So Dee Alford at Nickel as well as Mike Hughes. You know, there's certainly some good talent underneath them. Clark Phillips, I think will be perfectly fine to replace Hughes. Hughes was also technically listed as a Nickel back before today. But Nickel, it's not the easiest thing to be able to address. But I also think Clark Phillips theoretically can move in to Nickel and be perfectly fine if you address Boundary Corner in this next coming draft. So overall, really, really good squad. I think that you have a lot of potential. But again, we all knew that coming into this year, it was whether you would solidify yourself as the Super Bowl competitor in the NFC. So with that being said, even though you guys are semi-ranked lower than expected in my overall rankings, you guys will be seeing some really, really good fruits of your labor right now in the records prediction. And hopping into the records prediction, we already are eight and four. Yes, things are subject to change. That is just what happens. But you know, I like to stick pretty damn relatively pretty firm on what's happened in the past, unless there's been some new revelations. I.e., theoretically, this week one game, Pittsburgh was supposed to be listed before y'all. Of course, with the Braylon Trice injury, I lost a little bit of faith in your edge core. So it allowed me to delay them a little bit longer until maybe a stronger indication of the IUCA deal is there. So TBD on that, I think if IUCA is on the Steelers, there is a chance that they could win. But with new quarterbacks, new system, same thing technically with y'all. But I do think that with Bijon Robinson, I think your game is just a little bit more reliable. The Pittsburgh defense is more reliable. However, I don't really trust the quarterbacks at the moment. And, you know, I also trust your defensive backs. So I'm going to be giving you guys week number one over my Pittsburgh Steelers. So when for y'all facing the Philadelphia Eagles in week two, I don't know if the Eagles line will get enough pressure. They had some struggles. We're going to see about these practices. I'm not sure at the moment what happened with them and the in the New England Patriots. I believe that's who they're facing. If they don't generate a lot of pressure versus them and have a good field session versus the Patriots, then I think you guys could win this game. But the Eagles are rock solid. They're extremely deep. They're also a very talented running team. I do think the Eagles are going to take an early victory because you are also in Philadelphia. Week number three, we have the Chiefs going to Atlanta. Hollywood Browns going to be out this time. So the receiving court is relatively weaker, even though it's pretty much a free pass. You know, like Hollywood Brown didn't change anything really about their receiving core relative to what it was last year. So there's still a fantastic roster. I do have my concerns in terms of like whether the Chiefs could, you know, the Chiefs could pull off something fantastic. I mean, they're they're really rock solid and you don't have really the pass rush to compete. So I actually will be giving this one to the Chiefs. I do think they're a superior roster at the moment. And the fact is their weakness is their offensive line. And like the tackles wise, and unfortunately, their strength is interior. So line versus line, it's strength versus strength. And unfortunately, I actually go with the strengths of Kansas City offensive line wise over the strengths of y'all. So we'll leave it there. The Saints going to y'all's house. I'm perfectly fine leaving it as is. Same thing with the Buccaneers. Their offense is honestly much better comparatively. Like when we looked at them last year, it was like pretty much the defense is super reliable. How's the offense do now? It's almost the opposite. Like the offense is even though you don't canals there, it's going to be reliable. You got good guys pretty much everywhere. But the defense that's very unreliable in terms of you have to hit a lot of big wins in order for it to be remotely as competitive as it was last year. So going to give you all that victory. Carolina ended up winning week six. Carolina is a brutal environment to play in. Although I do know that you guys can handle it. I do think that there is some form of element of what gamers call RNG, you know, randomness. And I think I'm going to leave it as is, you know, not always the best team wins. We all know that. That's just the NFL for you. And I'm going to give it to certain teams that have those environmental environmental assets. And I think Panthers have that. Now we see actually probably the next team I'm going to be reviewing the Seahawks coming to y'all's house and Seahawks. They have a really good ground and pound. They have a really solid receiving core overall. They have a good team. I do think that, you know, linebacker wise, they actually got some pretty good guys to fill in for the short run. They're a really good team. They are. And they can run the ball down your throat if they wanted to. I do think this is going to be a much bigger challenge than what we think. And I can't just let the home team win every single time. And I think that since they have a little bit extra rest, I know technically you could say the same about y'all the week before, but there's something a little bit different about going from a dome to the hellscape of Carolina than going from the hellscape of Seattle to a dome. So, you know, call it flawed logic, but I do think that there is a chance for that. I do end up splitting y'all because similar to what I just talked about with Carolina, I do think that there is going to be a little bit of an environmental factor that pops in with the Buccaneers. They're not that bad of a team. I do think the Cowboys are susceptible enough to be able to, you know, let up and lose some games here and there. And this is going to be a closer one. I do like the Cowboys a lot. It looks like they're hitting on their rookies. Marshall Nealon actually just texted me. But, you know, Marshall looks great. But Tyler Guyton was the one that was the big question mark for me. Marshall, I already knew was going to be fine. You know, he's a he's someone who just completely out outworked what his school was like he outproduced. He ended up just doing a fantastic job. But the real one that I was really like putting my eyes on is watching a raw right tackle who's a hyper athlete, but a raw right tackle move to left. And that was just scaring the ---- out of me with Tyler Guyton. It looks like they're hitting on him. So I'm going to be taking the W there for the Falcons. But it's going to be a closer game than maybe what I would have admitted if this were, you know, pre week one in the preseason. Then we talk about the next week. I do like the idea of sweeping at least one of your division competitors. And maybe the Saints aren't the one. Maybe you should sweep Carolina like, you know, there's always the chance that you could sweep Carolina. But, you know, again, I do think that there's certain teams that I have less faith in and I have less faith in the Saints to be able to rise up, so to speak, and rise up than I do for like other teams in your division. I have you guys beating the Chargers off a full bye week. I think that's an easy win right there. And the Vikings are actually going to be a pretty tough team. This could end up being an upset game. But I do think that Kirk will be victorious over his previous team. The Raiders are a very, very gritty team. It's especially I think, honestly, their tackles might be their biggest weakness. And unfortunately, they're matching up their weakness with your weakness there with pass rush. So I'm going to give the Raiders a win right there. And, you know, I like the fact that you guys win out at the end of the season. Theoretically, I do want to contemplate letting Washington win a game here. But if I were to do that, I'd probably flip another game. Actually, speaking of Denver, that's a tough game. Honestly, that's a tough game. I would actually debate flipping that. I do like Denver. I do. Bo Nix. I mean, I thought that he had a better outing than some people like to suggest. But I do kind of want to flip a game. Ten and seven, I think is pretty adequate for where you guys are at, though. You are winning your division. If you can't tell, like you're definitely winning your division. But, you know, I don't think it's going to change much. It's not going to change anything in the long run. Maybe if like I'm sitting there and I don't like something, I'll end up changing it. But for right now, I do think especially a mile high random ---- happens, and I think Bo Nix is going to be better than what people say. So, ten and seven, win your division by a pretty damn good margin. You're going to be probably fourth. And you know what? I think that's a really good spot to be, especially with the fact that you guys missed your draft for maximizing what you are. You're going to maintain consistency of being competitive. So you as Falcons fans are going to be happy because your team is always going to be within striking range. But the question is, are they going to be actually within striking range? Are they just going to be sitting in striking range? That would be the difference between if they went after the draft the way I hope they would and the way that they did. So good team, really good team, and just hoping that they could have done a little bit more in a little bit different of an aspect. But nonetheless, that's going to be a video. Thank you so much for watching. Love y'all. See you on the far side. Peace.