PFF's 2027 NFL Mock Draft 1.0 | Mock the Mock

Today, we break down Pro Football Focus's first 2027 NFL mock draft. If you guys are new, feel free to like, comment, subscribe below. My face is my board. It is not predictive. These are the players that I love in the order that I love them. If you want to see the full board, every single eval that I do, and a list of winners and losers from every single week of the college football season, go over to the Patreon, five bucks a month. And for positional rankings videos, you guys get the extended ones over there, especially since I'm doing my own graphics now. i don't have to really worry about people having conflict of interest but let's get into this this is kind of a hate watch so it is going to be a little bit enjoyable but we're still going to keep it 100 like we have some friends like Trevor Sycamore, Mike Renner had them on the show we love them to death and so i have my own personal feelings on PFF because of stuff like that but i also have some integrity to uphold which sometimes a good pick is a good pick a broken clocks right twice a day but there is a specific quote in this mock draft that made me have to review it so let's go into it and of course if you guys are new to the series we always do hit miss or match based on the pick so i want you guys to kind of get a quick analysis before we end up diving in starting out with the number one overall selection Gordon McGuinness that's probably a fake profile do not pay this cut it in half join the Patreon and on top of that end up using that five dollars in supporting one of the other great content creators out there. But number one, overall, we have the Titans going Jeremiah Smith, wide receiver out of Ohio State. This is a hit. There's not another player that's challenging Jeremiah Smith for the number one position. He has continued to progress faster and better than I expected. And, you know, I was wrong about that. That's how I keep it 100. Sometimes players develop like you look at the defensive interior class. Those guys haven't really developed. But Jeremiah Smith continued to. And that's incredible to see, it's great football for all of us so I'm happy to be wrong about Jeremiah Smith in terms of the limitations I thought he had coming in, but he is fantastic, there isn't really a better option like in the draft even if you need a QB I don't think that one is worth it there I finally hit on an upset of the week UNC toppled Pittsburgh and I am back to continue my streak This week, when we check it out over on Kalshi, the most egregious difference between what reality is and what this peer-to-peer market says it is, is the percentage of chance that Ohio State beats Indiana this week. There's only a 61% chance that Ohio State beats Indiana. Indiana's been in close games versus Northwestern, Nebraska. They just have not been as good as what people think they are. And again, that's the beauty about Kalshi. It's peer-to-peer marketing. It's not going to be versus a house like a traditional sportsbook. So, I think it's a great time to take advantage of this opportunity. If you do put $25 down on this trade, and you use the code HMS, or just make it easy, click the link in the description, you'll get that $25 back added to your account instantly. Along with that, my friends over at Kalshi will add an additional $30. So, you're getting $55 added to your account instantly when you make a $25 trade. And if Ohio State beats Indiana this week, you'll get the $55, and you'll get $38.66 on top of that. quick maths because math is kind of boring that is going to be over $90 in your account now let's just say Indiana pulls off the miraculous, they end up beating Ohio State, you still end up netting 30 positive so take advantage of it while you can, i'm not sure how long these Kalshi folks are going to be blessing us with this special promotion make sure also to take advantage of the markets because opinions change and so the numbers are going to change as well make it easy just click the link get the $55 when you trade 25 number two we have the Los Angeles Chargers going cornerback at Leonard Moore out of Notre Dame this is a hit I love Leonard Moore he's my number one player in the class I think he's a stud and I don't think the Chargers based on the fact that maybe Harbaugh's gone will end up getting rid of Herbert so that's kind of the big asterisk there is if they do get rid of him this is going to be along with maybe some other picks in this draft beginning to look at the QB position. But even if the Chargers deal Herbert, I still wouldn't take a QB at two. I'd still go after a near G-term generational type of corner who's been so dominant since the moment he touched the field. The Chargers getting themselves a supremely talented player, number two, is the right move. Number three, we have the Miami Dolphins going Drew Mestemaker, quarterback out of Oklahoma State. This is a hit. I don't think Drew Mestemaker is going to be coming out in this draft i really don't first off there are some i believe he's actually even said that he wants to go back to school but most importantly he has Jalen Hawkins who's a true sophomore who he's going to end up wanting to continue playing with um Wyatt Young in an elite receiver class there's a strong possibility he wants to go back to school everybody always says oh but look at Dante Moore look at Drew Allar I hate to say it y'all why are you guys clamoring for someone to come out higher than where they probably should be picked let's just say Mestemaker sucks next year he goes back to school he's cheeks why would you want him to have been taken by a team at number three overall then is it not a good thing for us to have more tape more experience more understanding of where Drew Mestemaker is going to go and on top of that this dude gets another year of experience didn't even play in high school i think he played one game in high school and he ends up going to UNT does a phenomenal job. Goes to Oklahoma State, first game, all of a sudden we're like, oh ----, I had him as my QB1 coming into the year. And by the end of it, I think he still will be. But it was like, oh man, the lights were too bright. Tulsa cooked this dude's ass. And red zone production, in my opinion, has been great for Drew Mestemaker lately. But there's just so many elements to where an extra year would be a lot more useful. And again, if he sucks, it's a good thing he returned to school. why do you want a bust in the top three and i'm not saying it's what Drew will ever be but i'm just saying when people try to bring up don't go back to school arguments there's no reason for it the dudes get paid now and on top of that we get clarification on who is actually good so these quarterbacks are getting paid five ten million dollars their family's gonna be all right they're gonna be a-okay now we end up getting the actual long-term clarity so number three i think that's a good one number four the Texans go for Trevor Guzby tackle out of Texas uh this is a hit it's a low tier hit but it's a hit because Trevor Guzby's a really really solid player I have him at what number five on my board can I bitch and complain hell no like I think Trevor Guzby is a very solid player got to see him with my own eyes this past week here in Dallas at the Red River showdown. And it was an amazing experience. Got to see him and Siani both do a really good job. The left tackle for Oklahoma. I love looking at tackles. I think they do like it's one of the positions I love to lock in on. They did phenomenally well. So Trevor Guzby helping out the Texans offensive line. I don't mind it. Do I think that it's the primary immediate need at number one? Maybe not. I'd still prefer to kind of get the inner working solved. But at number four, you're not going to be drafting into your offensive line. So get the long term player who's going to save you $30, $40 million a year based on what a high-tier elite offensive tackle would probably cost coming up. So it's worth it if you can end up making that selection. I do have Seton higher, but again, number five overall versus not number five overall. Number three, it's not going to be that big of a difference. Number five, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Dante Moore out of Oregon. This is a miss. First off, this was released today. like come with me really quick let's just go to the top of this this was posted today y'all what what are we doing let's read this you know let's read this i'm trying to have it to where i'm not spoiling it for y'all uh but baker mayfield's contract keeps him through at least 2027 but the team has flexibility beyond that he ended up having a good grade last year hello are we not worried about what the hell is going on this year? Lord have mercy. Lord have mercy. What a horrible decision. And it's not like Dante Moore's ass, right? But this is just not the situation for him to provide any return on investment. You're not getting a short term. And in my opinion, you're not getting a long term one either. I don't know if Dante Moore is genuinely better than Baker Mayfield based on the fact that he has not been able to be clutch in pretty much any game so far he has lost very close games and then what versus Penn State last year the last game Aller was able to play Dylan Thiemann was clutch that game it wasn't necessarily Dante Moore so that's the factor that we were saying okay we see the floor he can process well very good player but then he just doesn't have these Mendoza moments and I mean that's a big factor if you're going to be taking someone top five you need to come back from like when you're one score down show that you are able to elevate your team and take the W and I don't think he has that number six the Arizona Cardinals go after Colin Simmons edge rusher out of Texas this is a hit I think that the Cardinals need to look at three positions it's quarterback it's edge rusher and it's right tackle those are the big ones tossing wide receiver now that Marvin Harrison Jr. is not there but four primary positions and sadly those are kind of some of the biggest positions to fill right the most important quarterback obviously edge rusher i do think that you know you can delay this selection but Colin Simmons right now he's one of the highest floor players and i think he fits extraordinarily well granted what's the vision for the defense that's a new story that we'll end up having to unpack but i personally think you guys see with my two round mock draft that i released yesterday check it out this was a i chose a different path i didn't think that i would go the edge route but it's not like going to edge route is a horrible thing to do i prefer to build the offensive line and solve the biggest question marks and then i think edge rusher is something that i can end up trying to take pot shots on but for the Cardinals i think that it's not a bad move not the move i would make which is still why it's a hit but it's again very similar to Gooseby it's like a low tier hit number seven the New Orleans Saints go Charlie Becker wide receiver out of Indiana this is a mess i like the idea of continuing to make this offense tick with more firepower. I still do it. But when you have Dylan Stewart on the board and you have the opportunity to go after Jordan Seaton, who can kick into guard or play tackle, I think there's just better players for return on investment purposes. Charlie Becker in an elite wide receiver class, in my opinion, should not be a top 10 pick. And when you end up looking at the Saints who just added a top 10 pick at wide receiver, you have Chris Olave, who is worth a ton of money and on top of that you have developmental really good receivers the number seven pick doesn't necessarily have the value for a wide receiver to come in and end up elevating the offense the way a number seven pick should so you have to look at what you get back will Charlie Becker improve the offense in my opinion yes but how much not enough to justify a number seven pick when there are other players that in my opinion you slot in that tackle or guard You end up slotting in, obviously my favorite one is Dylan Stewart. You put him at edge. You look at the corner room, Ashton Hampton, heavier corner, works very similar to Kool-Aid McKinstry. You can end up talking about him. You end up, of course, love my boy, Ellis Robinson, the fourth to death. So you can end up slotting all those players in. They just provide way more than Charlie Becker does to this team. And it's not a slight at Becker. It's a slight at the value for Becker for the Saints. And it's a big difference. Commanders number eight, Cam Coleman, wide receiver out of Texas. I'm going to give this one a hit. I think Cam Coleman, when he goes to the NFL, teams will evaluate him and realize the year-to-year difference between him at Auburn at 201 pounds and him at Texas at 210. I got to see Cam Coleman end up lighting up Oklahoma with my own eyes. I don't think that he is at the explosiveness that he was last year. And unlike Marvin Harrison Jr., where he was at Ohio State, still doing a really good job of being explosive enough, which I still have my concerns with MHJ. I still think that it is sad to see what's happened with his career arc. But most importantly, he ended up gaining a lot of the weight in the NFL. You end up seeing Cam Coleman immediately from one to two when you're evaluating year 2024 or year 2025, year 2026. And that reference point will show you maybe where he can end up getting back to where he should have been a top five overall selection so i think the commanders do have a long way to go before cam coleman is like the best selection here and same thing with cam coleman but i do like the idea of having cam coleman essentially be scary terry it's a good fit in my opinion uh continuing on i hope to god this is not a reference of exactly what they did how stupid would it be if they actually ended up doing this like yeah spoil three picks that are in the next couple the new york jets go cj carr quarterback out of Notre Dame at nine. This is a hit. CJ Carr is a good QB. There's nothing wrong with drafting CJ Carr here at nine. I'm not sold on him fully yet. I think the inconsistencies are still there. I want to see him win a big game, but this year, but on top of that, I do think when you end up looking at him in terms of the jets, you can insert him right away to an offense that is ready for a QB now to me that could scream Trinidad Chambliss who's a little bit more pro ready who's going to be able to elevate and basically be a better version of what Geno Smith is now I think that you have to evaluate that when you end up looking at whether you want to go after a young developmental QB or one that's ready day one it's the window that you perceive and I think the Jets are surprisingly a lot closer to a window than what people want to give them credit for but maybe that's just me continuing on number 10 the Philadelphia Eagles go Dylan Stewart edge out of South Carolina this is a huge hit I love Dylan Stewart just non-football stuff is the big question mark also health got to make sure at that thinner frame the health question mark doesn't continue popping up but I love Dylan Stewart talent wise he is probably the number two player in the class Ian Leonard Moore will go at it both of them are ridiculous Dylan Stewart is unmatched I don't think there's another player on earth who plays the way Dylan Stewart does how will that translate? That's the question that we have to ask because you can't put a price tag on how unique Dylan Stewart is, but you can put a price tag on how you think that will end up panning out in terms of the play on the field so I think that that's something you've got to worry about Eagles, um definitely more of like a menace, they're fine with the menaces and if they can get him at 10, boy would that be a great pick these son of bitches did end up spoiling the three picks didn't they? The New York Jets, we're gonna just go back to back they go, Will Echols defensive tier out of Ole Miss, this is a, this is a hit and then they go Ellis Robinson corner out of Georgia also a hit, I'm gonna talk about both of them at the same time also makes it easier for me on the editing, but um you know Will Echols, I think that the LSU game alone showed that he has the ceiling to be an unblockable, relentless threat. He's been very solid this year overall, and the Jets continue to get extra pressure from the defensive front. I'm sold. New York Jets going Ellis Robinson at 12, I also think is an amazing move. I think the corners are going to be three in the top 10. It's not a good corner class at all. There is a very top-heavy group of corners, and the NFL has gotten very expensive for top-end corners. So I think Ellis Robinson, Ashton Hampton, and Leonard Moore will be gone by this point. But the Jets getting a true boundary corner who's physical, just like D'Angelo Ponds, but six, like he's a six foot, 190 pounds or 180, but it plays like he's 190, really good value here in a good system fit as well. Number 13, the Cleveland Browns go quarterback, Austin Simmons out of Missouri. This is a mess. And the reason why, cause I went Austin Simmons. It's the fact that it's pick 13. I just graded Austin Simmons today. It will be up for the Patreon folks. I'm trying to get through a couple more rather than just saying hey I'm going to re-upload every single time I update one player but I ended up grading Austin Simmons today he is very close to being visible on your board I think he's a very surprisingly developed quarterback for being so young and so early in his career but the Browns are ready to win now do I think this would be a bad move no if I'm not mistaken Austin Simmons offensive coordinator or head coach has experience with Todd Munkin in the past 2014 2015 shout out to Bill Sparks for having that background info but I don't necessarily know how much of an overlap it is going to be 11 years later just going to throw that out there but on top of that if the Browns need to win now Trinidad Chambliss has the ability to fit seamlessly into a Munkin system and I think that he would basically be an upgrade to Sean Watson that's why I would end up going that way if I had a little bit of a longer path to success, Austin Simmons would be my pick. But if the Browns don't have the option for someone who's a little bit more pro-ready, it's a good pick. So I think I ended up saying meh, and I'm going to stick to it because of the pick 13. 14, the Atlanta Falcons go Jordan Seaton tackle out of LSU. This is a hit. Amazing value. Sadly, you do need a succession plan at left tackle. I agree. But on top of that, you at least have a succession plan at right tackle in case that situation doesn't end up panning out in terms of getting a contract signed for the long haul personally lock down the offensive tackles whenever you can but Jordan Seaton incredible value here worst case scenario you kick him into guard for a period of time like he's somebody that you just want to have on your roster good pickup there Cincinnati Bengals at number 15 running back Jaden Ball out of Florida this is a mess I think the Bengals could absolutely use Jaden Ball but I just don't really trust the Bengals to use him more than Samajae Ryan. It kind of feels like a sexier Samajae Ryan, if you will. And no disrespect to the GOAT. He has a great beard, but I would just say I don't really see the return on investment here. Like it doesn't necessarily add enough value that Jaden Ball could with a majority of other teams. I don't think the Bengals would deploy him properly. So that's why I'm giving a meh, even though I really love Jaden Ball when healthy 16 the Pittsburgh Steelers go Trinidad Chambliss quarterback out of Ole Miss this is a mess and here's the reasoning why do I think Trinidad Chambliss could be better than Drew Aller yes do I think he'd be better than Will Howard yes however am I sure of it no Trinidad I don't believe he's listed at even over six foot in terms of the actual numbers and on top of that he is a bit older I don't think the Steelers are close enough to be in the position to draft a quarterback will be 25 years old on top of that i don't trust our system to maximize trinidad's early abilities so i don't really think we're going to end up making him the quarterback he should be and even one more layer to it it ends up trying to keep us in win now mode which is just going to perpetually keep us in the 16 to 20 range that we've always been it's time to take a shot have some variability go drew aller and then see if he sucks we can end up going back to the board with a QB. And on top of that, rebuild our roster. If he's good, then we end up having our franchise quarterback while adding whoever we can here at number 16. In my opinion, Chris Cole would be the dream. So I just don't really like it, but it doesn't mean that it's a bad pick because Trinidad and Chambliss still could end up being a better quarterback than Aller and Howard and quarterback is a tough position to get right. Going on to number 17, the Browns go Yonzee Pierre, edge rusher out of Alabama, this is a miss. Not because Yonce is bad, but Yonce does not fit. Tell me the Browns edge rusher right now who is producing, who is sub 250 pounds. You can't. He is not built for this system. They like bigger edge rushers. So I don't think that this is going to be a good move. Yontee could work other places. But again, fit matters arguably as much as talent. fit and opportunity matter just as much as talent if you are in a very good situation where let's just say you're an edge rusher in a very good situation where you're going to be in one-on-one on that right tackle every time you're going to be producing a lot more than a better player who's getting double teamed on the other side does that mean you're more valuable no but it does mean that you might have a better impact or you're going to end up being a situation where running backs chip you because your other edge rusher is not necessarily as good tight ends are sometimes on your side so situation really does matter or god forbid your team is so stacked you don't have the ability to get the reps in the um the consistency in there so with Yontee i don't think he fits the system i don't know if he ends up getting that many reps and i don't think he'll end up panning out as a Cleveland Brown number 18 the Seattle Seahawks go interior offensive lineman Greg Johnson out of Minnesota this is a hit this is a pick i make myself he is very flexible, great athlete can even play guard for all you will. And yeah, it reminds me a lot of great Zabel, but Greg Johnson just hasn't played the tackle spot yet. Doesn't need to. I like the mobility. I think he'd end up working extraordinarily well in tandem with Zabel. Number 19, the Panthers go corner Ashton Hampton out of Clemson. This is a huge hit. Ashton Hampton is a big wide receiver eliminator. It's going to be awesome to see him train versus Tetairoa McMillan on a down by down type of basis i hope to god he could end up doing that but on top of that and more importantly JC Horn's extraordinarily unreliable in terms of health Ashton Hampton would be a very good fallback plan for a corner one in an elite corner two number 20 the Vegas Raiders go Nick Marsh wide receiver out of Indiana this one is going to be a map and honestly you know what I I want to say miss but I'm going to keep it at a map because I think he's a very good wide receiver who I just can't find a spot for um he's a reliable weapon I think he'd be fine but um did they end up oh my god they changed the ******* quote no way they ended up having it a whole entire quote in here saying that Nick Marsh and um and Fernando Mendoza played together last year no way holy ---- wow what a bum organization they I don't even think they addressed it like they literally didn't even address it you know what I mean we can end up checking it out right here like I want you got hello so you guys are seeing me end up making you guys are seeing me make all this but look at this right here we end up seeing look at this ---- right here Mendoza knows Marsh from their time in Indiana yeah it's bad that's really bad y'all that's really bad they changed it oh what bums um but yeah he does the logic used for this is that Nick Marsh and Fernando Mendoza have experience together it's clear what happens when you end up firing the good part of your staff number 21 dallas cowboys go kelly jones corner out of mississippi state this is a hit a really good fit into christian parker's system high zone iq really solid build. Like it kind of feels like a Tariq Woolen slash Quinyon Mitchell s type of player, which is exactly what the Eagles are going with right now. Number 22 Broncos go Jamari Johnson tight end out of Oregon. This is a clear hit. This is the easiest shoe in, in the draft. I think he'll end up going higher than this because I think he could be a true tight end one and you can't find those on the market. That is a premium you have to pay. And Jamari Johnson's as good as all these other tight end ones that we've seen go in the teens 23 the bears go um defensive interior amari washington out of oregon uh this is a miss i almost went meh going miss the reasoning is that very similar to Yonsei Pierre look at the defensive interiors for dennis allen system they are not above 300 pounds definitely not above 310 definitely not at 330 got to throw that out there um it's very clear obviously mr nick marsh played with fernando mendoza that this guy doesn't have an in-depth understanding of football it happens some guys just know analytics and honestly that's not a bad thing like there we do need balance in this industry we need people who don't know football who end up giving us information about analytics to where our football mindset doesn't skew it then if we get unskewed data you're going to end up then processing it through the football lens the problem is we have someone who clearly doesn't know football making football content there needs to be a layer where we have someone who understands football filtering the information from people like this and i'm giving this guy the benefit of the doubt that he's smart but yeah this it just it doesn't make sense he saw defensive interior we're going to go with our highest graded player on the board at that position number 24 new england patriots go chris cole linebacker out of georgia um huge hit he is my number four player in the class i could probably have him higher it's just because of positional value he has the ability to add 10 extra pounds and play off the edge easily i would not blame anybody for having him as their edge one in this class and i think that there's a very strong chance he could end up doing that one of the freakiest athletes i've ever seen at the position and the fact that he's still ranked 46 for pff shows that they're just not staying up to date this is a player who should be top 16 on everyone's board he is as good as arvel reese and uh and sunny styles he's as good he might be better different archetype of player like sunny styles more of like a mike hybrid safety you end up looking at arvel reese he's a quasi edge rusher but he wasn't known necessarily for being as refined as chris cole chris cole has elite hand fighting ability elite bend like he is a true edge rusher playing the linebacker position, but he's really good in coverage and he's fast as ****. So in my opinion, Chris Cole could end up being the number one player when all is said and done. One of the few players that I can end up giving that shout to. All right. Number 25. Why are we having a picture of Deuce Robinson here? We have the Detroit Lions going interior offensive lineman, Cade Pieper. This is a hit. Cade Pieper is a very solid offensive lineman with a good amount of grit. I will say this. I almost ended up going a meh or a miss because schematically you look at the guards and that the Lions have drafted Mahogany bigger Ratledge bigger like I mean I'm trying to even think about um the right tackle from LSU you guys drafted bigger like none of them are the sub 300 pound range but I just think the talent's too good to pass on so there you go 26 the Giants go oh my god Deuce Robinson wide receiver out of Florida State absolute dog ---- miss what who oh my god look at this crap not much else at wide receiver right now you realize you traded through two third round picks for in my opinion a pretty damn solid player at Malachi Fields wow you it's it's tough to process an organization that I dreamed of working for and ended up doing some certifications did some of their grading and stuff and you know graded some games and stuff I cannot imagine seeing them fall like this like read the room bro it's not week one of the summer scouting holy ---- crazy 27 we got the Jaguars going Tate Johnson defensive back out of Notre Dame it's a hit I think that you're just going BPA high floor player good value nothing wrong with that number 28 we got the Bills going KJ Bolden defensive back out of Georgia huge hit very similar to Tate Johnson both top 10 players on my board great value for teams that in my opinion can use the upgrade at defensive back and both these guys are kind of Swiss Army knives, KJ Bolden a little bit more so for the positions he can play but the Bills getting a skilled defensive back never an issue in my books 29 the Ravens go wide tight end trade as Green out of LSU, this is a mess I think that trade is Green's a glorified wide receiver but I like this value for him as a day two player and granted it's almost day two in this but I just don't think that he provides enough value to be worth a five-year first round pick type of contract but we'll see what happens I think the Ravens definitely can use a bigger bodied receiver and Mark Andrews with his drop issues not really a huge fan of his long-term potential on this team 30 Vikings, Kingston Villiamu also linebacker out of Notre Dame, this is a mess I like going linebacker for the Vikings especially with Golday having some reps at edge like there's definitely going to be some value here I just would I'd be very cautious about Kingston with the two ACL tears on the same knee now could end up being perfectly fine but it's still you know red flag territory which I think Kingston will probably end up falling to round three round four because that's usually where those players with the question marks are but um you know I don't mind the fit for the Vikings it does just feel a little early number 31 you got the Chiefs going Caden Green offensive lineman out of Missouri this is a mess Caden Green is a very good player this is a very good spot for him to go in terms of the overall point of the draft however I don't really think the Chiefs need to spend a first based on Khalil Benson's performance Josh Simmons has been up and down but I still see a little like obviously he's a true tackle one when he gets the screws bolted a little tighter this is essentially kissing goodbye any opportunity for that now i don't think again i gave it a mad didn't give it a miss for the fact that i think he'd be an upgrade but i don't think that the value the return on investment of Caden Green has does necessarily like it doesn't add up for the Chiefs specifically in my opinion number 32 we have the Niners going Trevor Lough tackle out of Iowa this is a man i don't see Trevor Lough at six foot seven working as a guard with Brock Purdy but I do see the vision for him to be a long-term tackle it just depends on when you think Trent Williams is going to retire and it's kind of like a lot of other players when is that going to be we don't have we haven't hit it just yet but that's the video thank you so much for watching showing the love that you always do shout out to my boys who have been butchered by the PFF the three-letter bum organization but love y'all thank you again for watching see you later peace