ULA is in BIG TROUBLE: Atlas V Almost Retires while Vulcan Can’t Launch! SpaceX Taking Over...

A reign is coming to an end. One of the most iconic rockets in history is preparing to leave the stage. I'm talking about ULA's Atlas V. After more than two decades of reliable service, the legendary rocket is nearing retirement, while its intended successor, Vulcan Centaur, continues to face delays. Meanwhile, SpaceX is racing toward one historic milestone after another. So why are these two companies heading in completely different directions, and just how difficult could the next few years be for ULA? Let's find out on today's episode of Great SpaceX. Over the past several years, ULA and SpaceX have followed two very different paths, representing two completely different approaches to spaceflight. Their rivalry is far from over, and we'll continue covering every major development, so if you're interested in the future of the launch industry, be sure to subscribe and join our community. And before we begin, I also want to sincerely thank all of you for continuing to support Great SpaceX, especially during the recent period when our channel was heavily affected by YouTube's algorithm. Things are gradually improving thanks to your support, but we still have a long way to go. We'll keep working hard to make the channel even better, so if you enjoy our content, please continue supporting us with a like, a share, and a subscription. Thank you, everybody. Now, let's get back to today's story. ULA's current situation didn't happen overnight. In many ways, it has been building for years. The company was created as a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin to provide reliable launch services for U.S. national security missions. For years, that model worked extremely well. But as the commercial space industry evolved at an unprecedented pace, ULA's traditional approach became increasingly difficult to sustain. The company has been trying to modernize, but that's exactly where its biggest challenge lies. Its legacy rockets are being retired, while Vulcan Centaur has yet to fully replace them. For decades, ULA relied on two legendary rocket families, Atlas and Delta. In 2024, the final Delta IV Heavy completed its farewell mission, leaving Atlas V as the company's only remaining legacy launcher. But Atlas V also faces an unavoidable end. Because it relies on the Russian-built RD-180 engine, production can no longer continue, limiting the rocket to the remaining engines already in storage. That means every Atlas V launch now brings the program one step closer to retirement. Most recently, on July 2nd, Atlas V lifted off from Cape Canaveral, carrying 29 Amazon Project Kuiper, aka Amazon Leo, satellites into orbit. The mission itself was another flawless success. But there was one important detail. This was Atlas V's final Kuiper mission. From this point forward, Atlas V will no longer be launching Amazon's broadband satellites. Only four Atlas V missions remain, all currently assigned to Boeing's Starliner spacecraft. Why is that such a significant milestone? Because ULA's original transition plan depended on Vulcan Centaur gradually taking over Atlas V's workload. Instead, the opposite happened. As Vulcan's development slipped behind schedule, Atlas V became the rocket that repeatedly rescued ULA's launch manifest. National security space launch missions originally expected to fly on Vulcan had to remain on Atlas V. The same thing happened with Amazon's Project Kuiper constellation. Vulcan, Blue Origin's New Glenn, and Europe's Ariane 6 all experienced delays, forcing Atlas V to shoulder much of the workload. Across eight dedicated missions, Atlas V successfully delivered 224 Kuiper satellites into orbit. But even that wasn't enough. Amazon ultimately had to purchase Falcon 9 launches from SpaceX, a company it had initially not selected as one of its primary launch providers. That alone illustrates how much pressure the delays placed on everyone involved. So while Atlas V technically still has four flights remaining, its role in supporting ULA's broader commercial and national security business has effectively ended. And for ULA, that's a painful transition. Until Vulcan proves it can launch frequently and reliably, Atlas V can no longer step in as the dependable backup that carried the company through years of delays. Unfortunately, Vulcan still has significant hurdles ahead. Since early 2024, the rocket has flown four missions. However, two of those flights experienced anomalies involving the solid rocket boosters, raising concerns within the U.S. Space Force about the vehicle's readiness for future national security missions. As a result, Vulcan's launch campaign has slowed while ULA and Northrop Grumman continue investigating the issue. Both companies are working on improvements to the solid rocket boosters. Another option reportedly being evaluated is flying certain lower-energy missions without the boosters altogether. ULA and the Space Force remain confident the vehicle can return to flight later this year, but even after returning, another challenge remains. Launch cadence. To fully replace Atlas V, Vulcan needs to fly far more frequently. ULA ultimately wants to perform more than 18 launches per year, yet after roughly 3 years of development and certification efforts, Vulcan has completed only 4 launches. That's an enormous gap between current performance and long-term ambitions. And unfortunately, the backlog isn't getting any smaller. Under Phase 2 of the National Security Space Launch Program, ULA still has numerous missions waiting to fly. Looking ahead, the company has also secured 19 highly demanding Lane 2 missions under NSSL Phase 3, along with additional Lane 1 opportunities. Commercial customers present an equally difficult challenge. Amazon alone still expects Vulcan to launch 38 Project Kuiper missions. So far, none of those operational Vulcan Kuiper launches have been completed. Meanwhile, delays affecting New Glenn and Ariane 6 have already forced Amazon to extend portions of its deployment schedule to remain compliant with FCC requirements for its planned constellation of approximately 3,200 satellites. Naturally, Amazon won't want those delays to continue indefinitely. The longer Vulcan takes to reach full operational capability, the greater the pressure becomes. The consequences for ULA aren't limited to engineering. They've also become financial. Reports over the past year have even fueled speculation that the company could eventually be sold or restructured under new ownership. Whether that happens remains uncertain. But there's no question that ULA is navigating one of the most challenging periods in its history. In many ways, ULA represents an earlier generation of aerospace. The company recognized the need to evolve and invested heavily in its transition. But that transition simply hasn't happened quickly enough. As older rockets disappear before their successor reaches full operational capability, ULA finds itself caught between two eras. The retirement of Atlas V therefore represents more than the end of an iconic rocket. It symbolizes the closing chapter of one generation of launch vehicles while exposing the enormous challenges facing one of America's most respected launch providers. So while we celebrate the incredible legacy of the Atlas rocket family, here's today's question. Do you think this marks the beginning of the end for ULA? Let me know with a yes or a no in the comment section down below and tell me why. While ULA struggles through this difficult transition, SpaceX finds itself in an increasingly favorable position. Let's start with Falcon 9. As we've discussed already, delays affecting Vulcan, New Glenn, and Ariane 6 forced Amazon to rely heavily on Atlas V and Falcon 9. Now that Atlas V has completed its final Kuiper mission, Falcon 9 becomes even more important. New Glenn is still recovering from launch pad setbacks. Even once it returns, Blue Origin will still need time to establish a regular Kuiper launch cadence. Ariane 6 continues making progress, but its long-term launch rate remains uncertain. That leaves Falcon 9 as the only launcher currently flying at the high cadence needed to keep Kuiper deployment moving. The same trend could continue within national security launches. If Vulcan's return slips further, or its launch rate remains low, the Space Force may increasingly rely on Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy instead of redistributing missions between providers. That would represent another major shift in the competitive balance. Despite entering the national security market years after ULA, SpaceX has already surpassed ULA's Phase 2 performance and received more assigned missions under NSSL Phase 3. Falcon has become the dominant force in one of the world's most important launch markets. Even if Falcon 9's launch rate eventually begins slowing as Starship enters service, SpaceX's overall lead remains enormous. As we discussed in a previous episode, Falcon dominated the industry's launch activity during the first quarter of this year. If you missed that analysis, be sure to check it out after finishing this video. And that advantage may soon become even larger, because Starship is waiting in the wings. Unlike Falcon 9, Starship is designed to carry well over 100 tons to orbit while being fully reusable. No rocket in history has combined that level of payload capacity with complete reusability. Those capabilities could transform nearly every aspect of spaceflight. Starship could launch massive satellite constellations, support deep space exploration, transport cargo between continents, serve as an orbital space station, or eventually become humanity's transportation system to the Moon and Mars. Several historic milestones are now within reach. If Flight 13 succeeds, Starship could complete another major step toward operational orbital missions. Future flights are expected to demonstrate full booster and ship recovery, paving the way toward complete reusability for the entire launch system. Within just a few years, Starship is also expected to play a central role in returning humans to the Moon for the first time in more than half a century. At the same time, SpaceX leadership continues expressing confidence that Starship can eventually achieve monthly launches. Considering the company's recent testing pace, that goal appears increasingly realistic. Starship won't simply replace Falcon 9, it has the potential to extend SpaceX's lead even further. Of course, enormous challenges still lie ahead. Starship remains an ambitious vehicle with many milestones left to achieve, but unlike ULA, SpaceX enters this transition from a position of strength. Falcon 9 already provides a mature, highly reliable foundation that allows the company to develop Starship without sacrificing its launch business. Perhaps more importantly, SpaceX's development philosophy emphasizes rapid iteration, continuous testing, and constant improvement. Problems are expected, they are identified quickly, corrected quickly, and tested again. If that approach continues producing results, SpaceX may not simply dominate today's launch industry, it could remain one of the defining aerospace companies for decades to come. What about you? Do you agree? In any case folks, that brings us to the end of today's episode. Thank you so much for tuning in. As always, this has been Kevin from GreatSpaceX and until next time, keep looking up!