US-Iran Latest: Attacks Continue Over Control of the Strait of Hormuz

All right time right now officially here on the East Coast 6 a.m. In the morning over on the West Coast 3 a.m Let's continue on with more of the developments from over the weekend and we're turning our attention to these international headlines Including what's going on between the US and Iran? Taking a look here at your screen. It is a radar system courtesy of marine traffic It showcases the Strait of Hormuz The green dots you see on the screen are cargo vessels the red dots are tanker vessels and the US and Iran Asserting on Monday that they controlled the Strait of Hormuz after a weekend of attacks stretching across the wider Middle East Further threatening any diplomacy to end the war The AP's reporting that the attacks sparked by Iran striking a container ship Sunday in the Strait off the coast of Oman Again underlined that the waterway that once saw a fifth of the world's traded crude oil and natural gas passed through it remained the key issue in Negotiations the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf has seen shipping disrupted since the start of the war as Iran maintained a chokehold on it by attacking commercial vessels around it intimidating shippers Iran and the US are nearly at the midway point of a 60-day period of interim deal that was supposed to set up talks for a permanent end to the war Instead it has devolved into a series of attacks of its straight and its future Worrying world leaders that Iran war could fully resume once again All right a lot to get to a lot to dissect on this topic So joining us next to talk all about it is Rocky Weitz He is a professor of maritime studies at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, Rocky There's a lot happening there. Let's just start with this who is controlling the Strait of Hormuz at this time. We're getting conflicting information Yeah, so it it depends who you talk to right so so I would say the the sort of Analytical assessment is that the northern part of the Strait of Hormuz is Under essentially effective control by by Iran under what they have stood up as the the Persian Gulf Strait Authority More importantly for international shipping would be the southern route on on Omani Amman's coast and in those Amani waters, we've seen a resumption of trade passing through since the Memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17th So most of that has passed there that has been cleared of any mines by the US military The US military provides coverage there And so they I think both sides can actually both say Iran says it's closed and the US and Oman say it's open And in in in in in kind of a weird way, that's those are both true Because the southern route is open now Yeah, I think in the last 24 hours, there's probably not a lot of vessels passing through there They may have switched off their transponders So we couldn't see them and so they could be passing and then the transponder I Gets turned back on when they get back out in the Gulf of Oman and head to the Indian Ocean So so we'll know a little bit more in the coming days But basically we're kind of back to to where we were pre MOU where you know Some ships are going through kind of quietly with u.s. In coordination with the US military in the southern route Some have gone through the Iranian route going, you know kind of Iran's trading partners. So that has been open During this post MOU period but yeah, we're kind of back to where we were So so we'll see a lot of strikes by the United States Over 300 so those have been concentrated a lot on that coat that Iranian coastline you see on your map and they're degrading the radar systems and the military capabilities hitting hitting a lot of the you trying to kind of Put the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps back on its heels After you know an extended period of positive strikes You know that brings me to my next question rocky because it does seem kind of Confusing here when we have both sides kind of asserting this dominance over the straight So who do these? Shipping companies who do these ships and the crews listen to when it comes to finding a viable route throughout that straight yeah, it puts the it puts the commercial shipping industry in a tough place because you know They just want to get through the straight and and and serve their customers So so it is the the answer to your question is it really depends kind of who the trading partners are So if they're picking up Iranian crude and sending it to their customers Most of whom are in Asia including China Then they'll coordinate with that Persian Gulf Strait Authority The others will coordinate with Oman in the United States and do the southern route So essentially you have sort of a bifurcated straight between that northern route and that southern route But it's tough because this is not you know, this is not how international straits normally operate and The International Maritime Organization, which is based in London. It's a UN body that represents shipping they've they've Articulated many times that it's time for this to for freedom of navigation to be reestablished Oman Supported that effort just last week. So you're seeing that most of the world's trading Countries are saying it's time to reopen this Let's go through the the IMO process allow freedom of navigation and with Oman supporting that You know, I think that in the long run We'll see we'll see a resumption of more normal trade kind of in that Omani route, but in the short term I think there's gonna be some uncertainty and I would have Expected the commercial shipping industry is gonna take a wait-and-see approach for the next couple days until you know Hopefully tensions die down a bit. It's interesting because for the last several months It's almost been this wait-and-see approach. So it's it's kind of like Groundhog Day all the time here Rocky You mentioned Oman a couple of times and I want to focus on them specifically because Oman and Iran are the ones that kind of Surround this straight. So where does Omani leadership come into play here when talking about how operations are gonna work now and going forward Yeah, they're playing an important mediator role they are I think getting frustrated with the process and are being more assertive that That you know, we've negotiated this and it's time to move forward and that they're supporting You know a open passage Along the lines of what would be international maritime law and supported by the IMO. So, you know, but they play an important role They're a small country. They have good relations with the u.s. They have working relationship with Iran And so, you know, but they are of course a very important player given their geography And so but they're they're they're really doing their best to try to find a diplomatic road through this Situation and so, you know, I think nobody in the region wants a major Conflict to return because it's I mean, it's it's bad for all their other economic sectors I would say one last point the the good news on the on the on the Oil trade is that because of the pipeline networks being reactivated and expanded that there is oil going out through Saudi Arabia and through the UAE and then of course some sneaking through with Transponders off through the Strait of Hormuz in the Omani route. So we have seen I just checked oil prices this morning They're they're hovering between 72 and 73 dollars. So it's it's not We haven't seen a spike in oil prices and oil prices have gone down quite a bit during the MOU period So I think that that that helps to to not pressure all the global economy You know while we're while we're dealing with this current situation There's so much to talk about with this specific topic. I want to stay though We just talked about Amman and kind of their role in this situation I mean, they're really poised there to be at the forefront because you know, they share this waterway with Iran so they're really part of it, but Rocky are there any Gulf states or maybe any other countries that are also trying to have a Heavy role or be heavily involved. I should say in how this is gonna operate. Is anybody else trying to take the lead here? Yes, so that so that the Gulf countries there they're together and something called the Gulf Cooperation Council But they all have kind of a different approach to to this current situation I would say Oman and Qatar have been leading and trying to mediate a solution the UAE has been trying to assert its its independence and has as is eager for You know that the situation should return and if not that, you know There there could be you know resumption of military strikes to dig further degrade Iranian capabilities So, you know obviously all of them are very eager to get their oil out What we saw over the weekend where there were strikes on American bases in In Bahrain as well as in in Kuwait, so kind of all the all the countries are affected in a way but I think that by attacking the by kind of Returning us to Groundhog Day as you mentioned I think the patience with Iranians is is pretty thin right now with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries They're pretty eager to move forward And so I think there's a lot of pressure on the Iranians and the Iranians are essentially are essentially using their geography to their advantage to take some opportunistic strikes on commercial shipping and so, you know, we're gonna sadly, this might kind of be the situation for the rest of the summer as negotiations continue and and and both sides try to to use military strikes as a or Attacks on commercial shipping in the Iranian case to to kind of influence that negotiation Rocky over the weekend We had an analyst join us to talk about the developments between the US and Iran and sometimes we have viewers send in questions now there was one question that was sent in that I didn't have a chance to ask but it was kind of interesting because they said something to the effect of You know, I had never really heard about the straightforward moves before this war and now it's all I'm hearing about like why? Had I not heard about this before and it brings me to this next point how efficient was the travel in the Strait of Hormuz before this war first broke out and Is there a reason why really it wasn't in focus? Yeah, that's a really great question. So I think we all just took it for granted So even since the Iranian Revolution happened 47 years ago Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has mostly been on an unencumbered unhindered There were some attacks in the 80s that that that disrupted trade a bit But nothing like what we're seeing now And I think what it fundamentally comes down to is the the the rise of drone warfare which we saw starting really in 2022 with the Russia Ukraine war and and in these congested waterways like the Strait of Hormuz those drones which are relatively inexpensive and And you know, they're there. This is kind of the perfect environment for them to to operate so they'll and and commercial shipping is is an area where they can be disrupted with a With a drone hit on the bridge or in the engine room Won't won't sink them necessarily, but will really disrupt them and they move relatively slowly So in in this congested waterway, they're there They're a relatively easy target and to suppress those Given Iran's geography all the mountains and all the caves that they had built on that northern coastline that It's very difficult to have sort of a perfect defense But you know, the US is doing what it can as well as those Gulf countries. We mentioned to increase their their counter drone measures and be able to provide at least some area where the commercial shipping industry Should feel it's safe enough that they can they can risk going through and and and hopefully not be hit Especially if they turn their transpounds transponders off Throughout these last several months we have seen a different kind of options being had here to Navigate through the closures and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz rocky Is there a possibility in the future that the Strait won't be so important given the fact that countries are Trying to work their way around really this issue that we've seen for months I think this is this is probably the you know, the biggest long-term story So the the the oil markets and the countries in the Gulf are responding to this Extended disruption to the Strait of Hormuz by creating alternatives. So the already there were existing pipelines. Those are being Their capacities being increased the UAE is adding an entire new one They're trying to finish that by by next year and then the the land-based transportation for for non oil and natural gas products so things like food and and other goods that you would transport by container a lot of those have been delivered into the Red Sea ports of Saudi Arabia and then trucked across the peninsula to the Gulf States or also in the UAE in Oman and then the land-based Transportation system carries them. I think we're gonna see a lot more land-based transportation systems invested in whether those are railways or additional pipelines and I think that the Essentially the investment case for those for the Gulf countries is now so strong That they're already gonna do that. And so as though those investments actually build that infrastructure That'll be really good news for all the markets and for those Gulf States in the sense that the Strait of Hormuz just there Will be alternatives and therefore Disrupting it will have less of an impact and so we're so then There's not really an incentive for Iran to disrupt it and so, you know, the oil markets so far have been relatively resilient I mean some of the predictions early on in the war were 150 $200 Barrels of oil we haven't seen anything close to that and and the fact that oil has been settling between You know 65 and 75 for for much of the last couple months shows that the markets have been able to respond but you know The storage like the for us in the u.s. The strategic petroleum reserve and so you can't do that forever But there has been enough that for even this extended period we've been able to keep crude oil prices relatively low Rocky you are a professor of maritime studies. You are an expert within this field I keep asking a lot of questions but I'm wondering what are some of the questions that you're getting possibly from students or some of the concerns that you're hearing from Experts within this field something that stands out as you've seen all of this kind of progress since February 28th So yeah, I love that question. So so I think what we've really seen or what are the consequences of this rise of drone? Warfare, so so that's probably the big story since 2022 and we're really seeing that with clarity now. So what does it mean that? Relatively smaller military powers like Iran can use this new drone technology and use geography to their advantage to make Opportunistic strikes so things like commercial shipping and so we're gonna see we're worried about that in the Red Sea again Obviously straight over moves, but there are other areas in the in the world So whether it's the the Baltic Sea or the Black Sea, we've seen the Ukrainians have been very active attacking Russian Commercial shipping. What does this also mean for Asia? So the Strait of Malacca is very famous between Malaysia and Indonesia, so that's what a lot of Actually, my summer research teams working on this summer's. What are the sort of? Consequences the second and third order consequences of a rise of drone warfare that is essentially democratized across the world so that most powers if they wanted to can get access to that drone technology and disrupt Disrupt things that we took for granted for a long time like commercial shipping Rocky White's a professor of maritime studies at the Fletcher School at Tufts University Rocky. It's always good to see you here I've been talking to you for months since this war first broke out and Still a lot happening over there at the streets. So we'll be checking in with you soon. My pleasure