Battle in the Sea of Azov: strikes on Russian tankers are changing the rules of war
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Ukrainian drones have dealt a record blow to Russian maritime logistics – dozens of "shadow fleet" vessels have been hit in 96 hours, fuel shortages are mounting, and Crimea is on the brink of collapse. However, experts warn: this is not the end. High oil prices, Indian gasoline, and an information vacuum in the Kremlin make the situation much more complex than it seems. What awaits Russia this winter and why attacks on tankers don't solve the main problem – read this Focus article. The Ukrainian Armed Forces' Unmanned Systems Force conducted a large-scale four-day operation , dealing a devastating blow to the enemy's military and logistical infrastructure in Crimea and the Sea of Azov. This was reported by USF Commander Robert "Magyar" Brovdi . The operation's main achievement was the destruction of Russia's "shadow fleet ," the SBS commander reported. Over the past 96 hours, Ukrainian drones struck 35 tankers, bulk carriers, and special-purpose vessels transporting fuel and raw materials in defiance of international restrictions. All attacked vessels have been officially identified and are subject to international sanctions. The large-scale strikes were precisely coordinated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Center for Deep-War Engagement of Unmanned Systems. Ukrainian attacks on Russian maritime logistics are a logical and painful blow given the decline in oil refining and the acute fuel shortage, especially in annexed Crimea. Unmanned aerial vehicle forces and other Ukrainian Armed Forces units have already effectively taken control of the peninsula's land supply corridors and have the technical capability to cut off sea routes as well. At the end of June, Putin estimated Crimea's monthly fuel needs at 70,000 tons and promised to supply the peninsula by increasing supplies both by land and sea. The Russian tankers attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Sea of Azov could have been carrying approximately twice that amount of fuel. If Robert Brovdi's information is accurate, the scale of the Russian fleet's one-time losses appears colossal, the author emphasizes. The Russian Navy has seen more tragic incidents and greater damage in its history, but 25 large-capacity vessels lost in four days is unprecedented. The damage inflicted on the Russian fleet and economy has not been disclosed. However, some interesting data has surfaced in Russian media: Kommersant, citing the Ministry of Finance, reported that in June, the Russian budget was executed with a surplus for the first time since the beginning of 2026. Revenues amounted to 3.84 trillion rubles, expenditures to 3.56 trillion, and the surplus to 280 billion. The accumulated deficit since the beginning of the year has decreased from 6 to 5.7 trillion rubles—from 2.6% to 2.5% of GDP, which is still above the annual target of 1.6% of GDP. The stabilization was driven by rising oil and gas revenues amid high oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. The average price of Urals crude in the first half of the year was approximately $67.90, compared to the budgeted $59. Prices declined after the Strait of Hormuz was unblocked, but rose again amid the escalation between Iran and the United States. The use of unmanned systems is a standard military task, as is shelling of oil refineries. This strategy is linked to attacks on the Russian economy, regardless of its oil revenues, economic expert Oleg Pendzin emphasizes in a commentary . Now, for the first time since the 1990s, Russia has announced a ban on diesel fuel exports. China has officially refused to sell petroleum products to Russia, as its refining capacity is 30% underutilized due to a shortage of raw materials on the global market. Thus, Russia truly has serious problems. "There are two important points. First, Putin is in an information vacuum and doesn't care about these problems. Second, Russian elites, especially regional ones, have begun actively discussing this situation. Serious problems are arising locally, and if remote regions aren't provided with the minimum amount of essential goods, this could lead to serious social consequences this winter. The Russian uprising is spontaneous and uncontrollable. And even the additional cash flow from oil sales isn't saving the situation," the economist emphasizes.
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