Deep Infiltrations & Southern Strike Campaign | Realistic Analysis - Ukraine Map Update

G'day Legends. I hope you're having a fantastic day and so far you're having a brilliant week. Today's update will be on the war in Ukraine and we have a lot to cover from the battlefield tactical actions to strategic strikes and politics. As we always do we have to combine these all together due to the holistic nature of a professional army and states at war like this when there is so much on the line and this war is much bigger than just Ukraine and Russia and the recognition of this makes this war so much more difficult for these states to negotiate an ending as well. So what are we going to look at? We're going to talk about some claims around Russian aviation then we're going to have a look at the maps. Reputable mappers see where they are saying things are changing but then we'll need to look at a number of geolocations where flags are going up. Now a flag does not mean controlled it doesn't even mean consolidation but it does mean that troops have been able to get to that position and does that tell us the forward line of troops or the float is much further forward. We'll have a look at that we'll have a look at the footage we'll of course need to talk about the mid-range strikes Ukraine's southern campaign against logistics and when I say against logistics it's trucks it's cars it's bridges it's locomotives we'll look at that we'll talk about that in reality though because this is over hundreds of kilometers over tens of thousands of square kilometers and how many a day are being hit because the Ukrainian ministry of defense they are saying it's around 500 as far as visually confirmed that's a day we have between say 9 and 30. So we'll look at some averages there remember those official numbers much like the casualties most things this war filmed and then incentive to release that too so there's not some massive bank of footage being held somewhere for future use we'll talk about a terror style attack in Monaco that targeted a Ukrainian oligarch but who was sanctioned by Zelensky in 2023 and then out to the political sector we've seen Zelensky's made threats against Belarus regarding repeaters and of course Belarus's relationship with Russia Lukashenko the leader of Belarus has seen Putin and flew directly from Moscow to China to meet with Xi Jinping we'll talk about that and the Belt and Road Initiative so as you can see by the introduction there's a lot to go over now Mr. AMK mapping he released this yesterday of of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian tactical aviation at least two Su-30 or MiG-29K aircraft were hit by FPVs probably launched by a larger mother drone says a video of the strikes will be released soon at this point in time can't confirm this haven't seen this this claim actually made in many circles and haven't seen any footage of it but this would follow this was yesterday the two the at least two potentially three MiG-29s Ukraine lost this of course on the Russian side as far as attrition well this is attrition from the whole war is Russia operate a significant larger quantity of aircraft than Ukraine does and this particular type is the MiG-29K a very um not rare but a largely underestimated aircraft and the Su-30 are near used as much as things like Su-34, Su-25, Su-35. Right let's look at the maps and some geolocations here I think you'll find this part very interesting so of course here's Ukraine central Ukraine the capital of Kiev red areas occupies 22 purple since 2014 this is why when we say that this is why Kostyantynivka is so important because it's a fortress city that's been holding from not only this 22 war but previously as well but won't be talking about that there's no real updates in here we need to look in the north all our updates are really up in the north and if we zoom right in we have Sumy okay and we have a couple of updates in here but where I want to look is just the east just in here this sort of uh pocket that the border has and well suryak maps he's showing that this looks significantly different from how this is looking so if we zoom in on this sector in here well he's showing that mirapilia is under russian control so the situation south is becoming clearer ukrainian army continues to infiltrate and held positions to saint nicholas bishop's monastery complex but this is right down in here that he's showing on his map the russian forces are moving not only through mirapilia but in the direction of the liquor which of course sits right here so from where the deep state claims the troops are say seven kilometers away at least of what suryak is claiming now again it's difficult to know with maps but you can see why kilometer squares may be significantly different if suryak is showing this deep states showing this and well the difference is something to the effect of that okay so we'll keep an eye on operations up there but saying ukraine's making some areas bit some areas back to the south here near the church then we come to sumy actual head to the north of course in where russia is occupying in sumy so we need to look in this area right here and khotyn will be one of the areas of which we are using as a relevant point to see where the map is moving so we have khotyn down here you can see where this road heads between kalinitsia and murenai and that this area through the forests is becoming more occupied by the russian forces and fighting on the southern side of the volzhanskaya as well so according to suryak very roughly the frontline is somewhat maybe five and a half kilometers or more back from here meaning it's far closer to the outskirts of sumy maybe around 13 kilometers now multiple mappers have said the russians are within 14 kilometers of sumy and the infiltration drg units are closer again and you can see you don't need to be some military genius to see even by the bare minimum russian operations in here which of course the ukrainian deep state map is the baseline that you can see more resources have been put over the past months that have on basically two sides had a level of uh fear introduced into sumy now again this is not a priority at this point in time but it does mean a lot of forces are going to have to move into here in case it does then we need to move into really the far north here so we zoom out of course we have the capital kiev straight across up into this area now this can be a little bit difficult to actually see on this map right here but this is mr suryak's map now where we're going to line this up is along this highway and then the southern international border and he's showing that areas out from komarivka up to ulenova are coming under more control so ulenova just out to the south that along the border is coming under control and more in the direction of bachevsk with sopok coming further under control as well so keep an eye on the map movements happening up in the north here a lot of other mappers do neglect that region right let's head into now the geolocations and geolocations in the infiltration gray area that this war has become well it's not clear like it used to be that's where the front line has moved as the front line has become far more dispersed less saturated with men more saturated with drones it's become very difficult to actually say this is where a line in the sand is but i've got a couple of interesting ones and a flag going up isn't nothing it isn't everything it doesn't show that there's movement there to consolidation or movement or confirmation but it's not also nothing so we need to come down to south we have or a key okay to the east north we have novoselivskaya so deep in green zone in here of course you can see really in line with the uh Stepanakert region over here so let's have a look at this because we have seen four three that were from the same source and a fourth one from another source i don't use much russian flags go up in here now this does not mean the forces have consolidated it doesn't mean that it's held by the russian forces but it does show that there's been infiltration of some at least 8.56 kilometers at least by where the deep state is saying the forward line of control is now that's where deep state saying the control is we'll talk about that maybe if you're having these infiltrations of 8 10 15 20 kilometers that four line of control might be much further forward i'll talk about my experience as an infantryman with this level of infantry operation so it's not nothing but there was footage that showed allegedly the targeting of those russians after they put up the flags being targeted by drones but i want to show you another interesting part in this so these are the geolocations of this area but if i come to 220 is what i'm looking for is you'll see where you get the geolocation of then the russians flying the flags but when it's actually the next one i'm looking for just give me one second it is at 220 so we say unit banner here hammer and sickle and then once we see the zoom out this is what i found interesting with this footage is zoom out zoom out and you'll see there you'll see that to get into this village the level of fortifications that have had to be crossed you see this then tooth star fortification all around there so this tells us about the limited amount of manpower in this area yes they may have come in and got hit going back out but there's large fortified areas here of which at one point they have been able to infiltrate basically straight into okay this will make more sense in a while that needs to be taken to account okay from the north of here we need to look at another geolocation a long long way away so this is what we often call the gulya pole or the velika western front we have pokrovskaya right this is a long long way away we take from here back to where the claimed line of control is we're talking almost bang on 18 kilometers well this is a geolocation here then we have these today up in pokrovskaya we see where there's been russian targeting of ukrainian forces here and then we see russian flags going up in these areas of pokrovskaya these are typically actually on the western side down around here again you understand geolocation distance 17 eight and a half kilometers is negligent talking that much distance but it shows infill into these areas and this can tell us a lot about the front line now playfra has then used this video here back on that orokiv novoselivskaya area after this showing them getting hit and here so this is example of where you never believe flags most often they're simple info traders that carry and show to a friendly drawing their flags and just like other infiltrators they're then eliminated wounded or forced to fall back as you see in this video or take a prisoner flags indicative of anything whatsoever not a gray zone not a red zone but it's not indicative of nothing it does mean that troops were able to get there which is what delwin has said remember we saw that flags aren't nothing too we did see a ukrainian drone try and drop did it drop a flag on the kinburn spit trying to pull out russian troops to that area as well so it's not for nothing now is the cost worth it in a lot of cases no but we'll talk more about this in response to delwin has said we have ukrainians killed yesterday in hulia pesky trying to show they retook the village by raising flags the goal of flags is to create a reaction reveal ukrainian positions because they're forced to react also the recent ones in pokrovsky are 15 kilometers from the deep state line russian forward line of troops either those russians are ninjas or the forward line is more north than we think and i understand this thinking of hey it's up in here 17 18 kilometers away where actually is this front line he's going 15ks off this but this is where the confirmed line is not just the gray area it's a long way away and by flags popping up in here any forces that are to the south or around here will have to try and then eliminate this and you may be able to draw those forces out let's continue play for says it's a dumb action but not as everybody follows saying it's more for information psychological propaganda operation the answer is that infiltration is simply very very lucky no ninjas and no wrong front line so there's absolutely a degree of psychological operation it's a lot of propaganda and play for is not incorrect on that but it's also not just for nothing it doesn't just show us nothing and delwin says this you cannot be lucky trekking 15 kilometers at a minimum through enemy lines ask anyone in the military and then raise a flag on top of that and as i've said again and again and again on this channel is if you draw a line of the map and it's 5k 10k 15k if you want to get the how realistically far that is go out and walk that far in one direction and not on the road still very long way on the road do it through a field you'll understand how far that actually is they by the russians raised flags and pokrovsky in three different places over a week so at multiple points over multiple days have raised in different places they sure have been very lucky being sarcastic most likely russia maintains control positions in depth which they operate with secured corridors and drone resupply which the unforeseen ukraine could not reduce in their clearing operations last winter by the way flags are not pr they do have a military usage and he says he'll talk about that in a thread later on so there is there is absolutely a degree of pr as per kin burn spit dropping that one there but also they do have military usage such as pulling forces out but also depth forces creating a chaos if there is a push making retreating forces feel like they're up against a much larger force and using that as a lever to squeeze against now i have a little bit of experience on this because i was doing a major australian exercise in one of the largest military training zones on earth so tens of thousands of people out there and i was attached to a marine forward operating company so we were and it was just at basically a platoon size and let me just draw on this map up here so you've got basically the whole area of operations imagine this is massive of course and you've got maybe the the blue four you know heading in this direction and we've got the op four like this of who is being attacked what we did over a number of days at a platoon size element was move only at night and in trees sitting through the day actually be able to move up and around into the back of a feature being a hilltop basically in behind this op for being behind the enemy now once we reach that feature and we had basically enough supply on us or supply through then uh other very small teams or recon elements moving through then we're in behind we just sat in there and as this pushed up further and further this would eventually move back move back and once we engaged from the rear with mass amounts of firepower there would be an assumption that this is up against a much larger force and had been then fully enveloped or that a larger force was in behind this fractured basically in two we couldn't have held that if there was an operation but it to them was much much larger were there with javelins with everything and from here this was actually able to leave or i believe at the time was east to west against and basically was able to mop us up with the logistics as they came through so we infiltrated up and through over a number of days and held there basically as a team of maybe 30 i was attached to the marines at the time as our friendly forces moved directly in us and we were basically used as a lever against forces and i'm not saying that's exactly what is happening here but this up here be aware that's not just nothing this is exactly what we saw in an area like sooja remember the actual russian forces that were able to tunnel under into the back of sooja was very little the forces really could have actually just eliminated that but as the front line pushed in this direction chaos ensued i believe it was sooja in that direction correct me if i'm wrong but you get the same idea so keep an eye on that it's not nothing now this continues um as i said 15k is very far away continues uh the ukrainian positions they can't detect an assault team and these are not fsb alpha or special forces used to clear these are just line units if they can't then detect an assault team across 15 or more kilometers of open terrain with multiple villages being bypassed in between well why did they stop here the most likely explanation is there are some positions at least close to here try trekking through enemy lines for 15ks and it brings up the dispersion of forces on the front line too if you're able to push up that far at least 15ks into here through multiple villages and areas it's unlikely it was out and back there are likely depth positions overlapping of both ukraine russia and drawing out forces so i think that gives us a good overall there now let's talk about this of course that southern strike campaign need to zoom out a bit in the south and in crimea down here from ukrainian mid-range drones which is all the talk at the moment let me sort these by name so let's show you a bit of footage as well so this is a train and fuel trucks being hit by ukrainian drones so you can see these fuel trucks here being struck as well as this train which appears to have then carriages on the front fuel on the back and striking you can see where these are then on fire you can see multiple people fleeing from this train on both sides whether this is military personnel or civilians is unknown but you can see the fuel being struck as well as other strikes on fuel trucks now where is this happening and what does this tell us about a bridge right let's have a look at this it was struck just down in here uh where my pin has been dropped what this tells us though is if this train has been struck here in the last 72 hours the footage is claimed from today it means that the tracks have likely so this is what we saw in rozdolna about three days ago was this uh road bridge had been bombed by ukraine and collapsed on these tracks so if i don't know i'll be able to bring it up on this map can i bring up the rail uh it's going to be hard on this one but you can see here we have these roads is what i'm looking for the rail runs straight through here this is where it's collapsed likely that has been cleared again yeah crews could clear this pretty quickly given the repairability of train lines but these locomotives and trucks continue to be hit let's look at another bridge as part of this southern campaign so we have a couple of videos here this uh cameraman needs to maybe lose his job this isn't very good but we're on this bridge here you can see damage down here i'll show you that from a better image and you can see where a hole has been punched punctured into this bridge as well but this has more damage than his video showed you can see sections of this bridge have collapsed underneath and this is the nova zolts bridge to the east of mariupol to the west of rosa bond on near to where the international border is and there has been then systematic targeting of bridges roads etc between then the border or even other side down into the south and crimea as per that bridge and we need to keep on top of these because it can create absolute choke points so uh sorry uh oh yeah we'll go over this now the southern strike campaign to put again on this channel we are focused on the reality of things happening and it may mean that we're not flashy and everything's collapsing and everything's falling apart and those three days ago who said there's a coup confirmed in russia have gone silent on their confirmation of this uh okay so again we are just more realistic on this and that does mean that we may need to slow things down let's talk about this mr clement moland now clement he was at a military show recently and he was suit mogging everyone there but he does a fantastic job compiling all of this and geolocating the most down in the south in total i've counted 784 trucks and vehicles so not just trucks vehicles trucks everything in this hit by ukrainian drones since early may we're now at the end of june the average per day since may is 13 the average in may was 7 the june average is 19 the last 10 days has been 29 so you can see the average since has been 13 but by these averages then taking down gaps it appears to be increasing now let's talk about these numbers because this is assuming too that these people are assuming he says hit but many are assuming that this has been destroyed that there's nothing whether a new uh a truck can come and pick up the trailer or the prime mover has been destroyed trials again you get some of these may be repairable but the ukrainian mod well they're on the 29th it was 477 and much like this figure up here this one tends to just get plus or minus five or ten percent every day with no relevance to any actual operation or geolocations that we are seeing and assuming that everything hit is destroyed what's happening is not clement's numbers but these numbers these are getting picked up and echoed by media by social media and then they're taking as taken as then absolute truth they're seeing being used in analysis leading to predictions being made on shaky data at best similar to what we're seeing by the new york post and everyone showing around today that article of the russian life expectancy is 20 minutes that would actually mean that the life expectancy of a russian soldier in ukraine now believe 72 times shorter than that in stalingrad it's based off bullshit data it's based off claimed figures claimed just sources of someone who's a thousand followers has said this but it's taken these figures as truth and then put it back in this one need guys like clement do a great job on actually breaking down the real numbers that we are seeing so this gives a baseline of the minimum hits on vehicles okay not just truck not just one on vehicles now what i'll say people go well then it's 10 times this okay well i think that's unlikely there is a massive incentive and clearly systematized to push this campaign as efficiently as possible to release as much of this strike footage as possible absolutely so i don't believe the figure this is the minimum of what it is but the figure is not going to be 10 to 20 times that okay it's not going to be it might be 10 15 but i couldn't see it being 20 times that amount there's absolute incentive to release this footage for psychological purposes for purpose of getting more weapons in external support everything if it can be released it will be and of course the demoralization of the enemy force as well now this will need to be realistic about these numbers at the quantity we're seeing this is not a blockade with the amount of vehicles that cross these roads it can create choke points as i'll show you and ukraine is definitely increasing the efficiency of these strikes they're being simultaneous and successive and increasing we'll see how long and if that can be held that's very important simultaneous successive and increasing what we'll see is logistic strikes like this it will take weeks or months to really start seeing the true impact on operations and the offensive window leading of course through the heat at the moment but into the end of the year we will be closing for ukraine and russia to see if this can be exploited or more in this case i believe just to stop any russian offensive in the south but we need to remember that thousands of kilometers and if you're saying the last day's average of 29 say again it's definitely a choke point it's definitely limiting operations but we can't say that it's completely blockade and there's nothing going through but this is where you get a good idea of these choke points now this is down in the south this video here of course this road leading into that eastern connector between ukraine mainland and crimea is we have trucks like this crossing pontoon bridges being struck and this is what can create choke points at which then they are further destroyed last slide on this climate says in total since the year i've gathered 345 geolocation of trucks of course not all are geolocated but this geolocation of hundreds gives us clusters of strikes so you can see where ukraine is focusing their strike campaign and you can see around then areas like melitopol mariupol berdyansk donesk where the clusters of strikes are down these roads of course he said it's nearly 800 it's just merely that 345 have actually been geolocated what this map doesn't include but you can extrapolate is where bridges are being targeted so of course this shows where the trucks are being hit but you can see that it would create choke points of something like this footage here sorry for that to load and then you can see where their targets not just against logistics but then against infrastructure being now this is an effective campaign on its trajectory it should be a major concern of the russian forces absolutely if it can be successive it can be simultaneous and it can be increased but many many are overstating the strikes they're going off figures like this and then extrapolating and saying everything's falling apart we need to work i believe of what we have actually seen on the figures around this was probably at best 10 or 15 percent wrong or understated but many are overstating it thousands up to 3 000 vehicles a day by what i've seen past these roads we have of course the kirch bridge as well which could be changed to take more traffic and you have around 30 trucks a day or 30 vehicles being struck for now that could increase and it could increase exponentially but we still need to be realistic about our analysis here and not count chickens by the hatching of all because it's going up 20 per month or 50 per month whatever is then in 15 months time it'll be a bazillion times this amount again strikes are not going to be linear neither is the front line so we need to be realistic about it but russia's not doing nothing and we'll talk about their operations here too with more of their mid-range now one thing i've noticed up in kharkiv around novo kazakhia which is just to the south just sort of down from the border is a lot more use of lmur which are helicopter guided munitions so it means likely kar-52s operating here it's actually the area i've seen kar-52s operate most since the beginning of the war was actually around kharkiv sumy kursk sort of up in the north but as far as the mid-range what russia's offensive response offensive response defensive response the offensive response has been strikes in the south sorry ukrainian strikes in the south has been an increase in fpv geran so larger drone and fab usage in zaporizhia and in kharkiv and what these from the footage what i'm observing are primarily targeting fuel distribution so striking fuel stations not really striking uh the supplier trucks they are definitely supplying trucks but more the distribution of these areas as well as massive amounts of electricity transformers of course what we know is russia is developing fpv fiber optics well into that 40 kilometer range which are being highly effective at the moment on the defensive side of this rubicon like that specialist russian drone unit they've been moved into the south to counter ukrainian drones so anti-drone teams using drones and what this will do is alleviate some of the pressure that rubicon has put on other sectors of the front line in say kostiantynivka or leman and this is just some of the footage came out over the last 24 hours of some of these russian strikes here against then fuel sorry against electricity transformers you see if there's any against fuel there's more electricity uh more electricity vehicles some of the logistics such as a train trucks like this other supply trucks fuel so you get the idea with these it's not tit for tat and does ukraine have superiority in mid-range strikes yes i believe that to be true is it superiority overwhelming i don't believe so i think it is much closer than people think with different striking but mainly actually better effective use of the information which is what ukraine has had throughout this entire war is incredibly effective use of information operations from then military operations now sometimes skewed operations like kursk or bakhmut sold as this great thing and ends up they've caused paying the piper and it's a double-edged sword pay the price for it but the ability to take this and change it to just the strike campaign of 800 over a two month period and change it into there's about to be a coup in moscow we do see increased lines of fuel shortages people waiting for fuel but no one thing in this will be decisive it's more halting operations in here and small movements back rather than ukraine actually having the ability in the short term to gain down to say melatopol what would be needed for some level of herson or crimea now this wasn't shown during the 23 offensive far away from that and these have been more fortified lines uh since that point in time it's only been minor operations and also the time it's going to take for these logistics strikes to really start sinking to that amount well we're halfway through the year time will be running out to stage to supply to make plan for offensive operation of that size with ukraine really wanting to end the war by winter i'm going to skip and i'll put it tomorrow around belarus and in monaco i'll have some more information on that tomorrow try and keep this to half an hour legends you have a fantastic day look after yourselves and i'll speak to you tomorrow thank you bye