Why July 24 Will Be A Massive Turning Point for Gold & Oil Prices – Bubba Horwitz

Hi, everyone. Welcome back to the Daniela Comboni show. Yes, we know it. We feel the pain. Gold under pressure were sliced from over 5500 to around 4000. Traders are loading up on bearish puts in GLD with big volume on downside strikes betting this pain last some deep out of the money puts targeting another 30 to 40 percent drop. Could this be? Is there real truth to these massive puts signaling a major breakdown? Or is this just summer volatility that we're seeing where we're going to ask the king, Bob Horwitz, about this? But there's also serious chatter about a July 4th reset. Judy Shelton, a good friend of our show, pushing hard for the Treasury to drop gold convertible 50 year bonds on America's two hundred and fiftieth anniversary, backed by our reserves, symbolic power move or actual monetary shift. Here he is to hit us with the no BS floor. Trader Reid, Todd, Bubba Horwitz, Bubba, always good to see you. Welcome back. Good morning, Danny. Great to be with you. Always a pleasure. I look forward to it. Me too. Me too, because I've been getting so many calls. Danny, what's going on with the heavy put buying in GLD? Let's put some numbers here for you. Over one hundred thirty million and put premium on big down days with traders loading up on deep OTM strikes like the two hundred and forty put for June twenty twenty eight put call skew is at extremes not seen since their market. Is this smart money getting positioned for a real breakdown or is it just a thin summer market that the floor will will chew up and basically reverse here? What are your thoughts? Well, Danny, you always have to look at what is the bigger picture, and there's always another side to the trade. So you may be seeing here and they're not that far skewed out. I mean, there's some open interest at a few strikes below going down, but you have to understand what is the other side of the trade that the person who's buying those puts. These people are not buying these number of puts just to buy put because they believe that the price is going down. They're buying puts to protect long positions that they're probably holding. And now they're starting to panic, which would suggest to me that we're probably seeing somewhere near a bottom shortly coming in. When you get this much open interest at these prices, that means that the the boat is loading up on one side and who's going to be left to sell the gold. We've seen some dramatic selling. I mean, gold is technically in a bear market right now. I mean, down 20 percent. So again, when you look at the bigger picture, this is telling us that you've got some people that are buying some downside protection against positions that they're holding. It's kind of like a hedge, but they're overpaying for it because the more people come in and buy, the higher the volatility goes, the higher the price they're paying and the bigger the down move they make. This will never work out for them. This will probably end fairly ugly and they'll be giving up a lot of their profits when gold does turn around and goes back to the upside. And just to add to that, Baba, because I don't know if I see that as necessarily bearish, right? If they really had given up on gold, right, wouldn't wouldn't they just sell their position completely instead of putting in put positions? They would have sold out. Of course they would do that. I mean, you know, you've got you've got you've got some issues with gold right now. You've got you've got over a 20 percent pullback in gold. You've got a hawkish Fed, which Walsh did. You know, you know, I never compliment the Fed, but I'll compliment Walsh did a good job. You have a hawkish Fed, so higher interest rates are not necessarily bullish for gold either. So you have a little bit of bad news for gold going into a market that was already coming down to begin with. So you have people that are panicking that want to hold on to their physical gold or their paper gold. There's both. Right. But physical, especially because you can protect your physical gold by buying puts in the market. I mean, I hedge my gold by by doing back ratios and using these positions. But I don't think you're seeing I think you're seeing some panic to sell, but you're not seeing much else going on. And that's what I think you're looking at. OK, hold on. You mentioned the hawkish Fed. I have a clip that I want to play for you now. Unfortunately, and so when you have possible rate hikes on the table, perhaps a hawkish, more hawkish Fed and yields moving higher, that's going to put the kibosh on gold a little bit. OK, I bring this up not to not to, you know, pick on Ninja Trader, the video that produced that. But basically, the bigger picture is that I feel the media is running with this hawkish Fed narrative, Baba. Now, why are we so clear or why are we convinced convinced they are they are hawkish? Well, they've been hawkish for a little while anyway. Number one. Number two, the only really way to contain this inflation is to hike rates. So we've seen some talk. And of course, the Fed funds rate are pricing in a rate hike anyways, at least one to maybe two this year. So the true matter is, is that they're finally realizing that their ridiculous amount of manipulation of interest rates is being overdominated by the true free market. You look at the 10-year notes, which rally quite a bit. You look at the other interest rate markets that are higher. So this is giving you a hawkish view. And of course, the only way to stem the tide of inflation is to raise rates. But before his nomination, right, Walsh was saying he wanted rate cuts because of the AI trade, right? Now, this was before his confirmation. Now, yeah, maybe he had a change of heart now with the CPI numbers. But I guess my point is, we don't know what the Fed's going to do yet. And I mean, are you completely discounting? Okay, at this point, are you saying we're not going to see rate cuts? I am saying unless there is a major catastrophe, you've got a lot of things in play here. You've got private credit in big trouble, okay? You've got no money down loans coming down again in houses. You've got no doc loans coming. And so you're seeing a lot of the replay of 2008. But barring a major collapse in the equity markets, they're going to hike rates. The only time they're going to cut rates again in any time in the near future is if there is a major catastrophe in the general economy here. And until then, they're going to hike rates. And I think Trump may or may not be happy with his choice now in Walsh, but Walsh has been a little bit of a hawk. And the whole Fed, the whole meeting was a little bit hawkish. And their pricing, the Fed funds are at 65% that they're going to hike rates. So that would be the way that I'd look at it. And I think they will be hiking rates. Okay. All right. Well, we'll keep following this, obviously. I mentioned the July 4th gold reset, call it whatever you want theory that's circulating, spearheaded by Judy Shelton. Thoughts on this? Could we see major fireworks come July 4th? I don't think so. I think, yeah, fireworks, you go out and look at outside. Yeah. You'll see a lot of those, but I don't think you're going to see, I think this is just noise. I mean, what are they really going to do? Unless you're going to actually create a bond for gold. Okay. If you're going to bring gold back as the dollar, backing the dollar, that would change things. But reset, how are they going to, what, are they going to reset price and hit a reset button? They can't do that. It has to be determined through the free market. So the only thing they could ever do with gold is decide, as some states have decided that you could use gold as actual currency. Yeah. But from a straight reset, again, it's all nonsense. It's a headline that's out there that people like to talk, to hear themselves talk. But overall, I put no stock in any reset on July 4th, other than the fireworks we're going to see from the park districts. Okay. Talk to me about a big date you are watching in July, though. Well, July 24th and July 26th, there are going to be 24-7 for gold and crude. There's going to be two new contracts brought out by the CME. One for gold, which will be based on one ounce, and one for crude oil, which will be based on $10. So I'm on 10 barrels. So they're going to be very micro, micro, micro contract, but they will be opening up the markets to 24-7 trading, which tells you that the rest of the markets are going 24-7. I already know that the equity and option market is going 24-5 starting in sometime in September. I would suggest by the end of this year, all markets will be 24-7 around the clock, no holidays, no nothing. Because again, at the end of the day, the exchanges want to make more money. They want to open the markets up to Australia, they want to open the markets up to South Korea. And again, the only way you can do that is to get on their clock. So they're going to continue to advance and use this trading. And because they're profit organizations, it makes them more money to be open longer. You think we're going 24-7 by the end of this year? Yes, I do. I know we're going 24-5 by September. So that I know and that includes options as well. Okay, so people are going to say, well, what is this good news or bad news? Well, it depends on what side you're on. If you're on the side of a trader like me, it's bad news, because again, it spreads out the volatility, it spreads out the trade. And of course, you're now having to pay more attention more often of the time to what's going on. If you're an investor, it has zero effect. But it does take out the volatility. Because the longer you leave markets open, the easier it is to smooth out those very sharp moves, especially we've seen, obviously, the biggest numbers and the biggest sell offs come on a Monday, because of all the festering and news over the weekend that people get nervous about. And by the time Monday comes, they can't wait to sell. Let's talk about the nervousness in the gold market. I want to circle back on gold here. Okay. I don't know if you caught my interview with Jim Rickards. I know you're a busy man. I won't take offense that you didn't watch it. But he mentioned that his hero, his mentor, Jim Rogers, has always said that no commodity in history has gone up, right, parabolically, like we saw gold do and not correct 50% that every commodity in history, if it goes up like that in a straight line, will correct 50% and then go back up. So he's not panicked. He wouldn't be surprised if we saw gold, obviously, let's take it from the 5500 level, right? Let's say it does correct 50%. But then we'll shoot back up. Do you agree with this with this logic, Baba? I think he's 100% right. Listen, I listened to the interview. But the point is, is he is right, when you get a market that moves to parabolically, especially commodity. Now, again, there's stocks and there's commodities. Commodities aren't going out of business, right? They're not a company. They're a hard asset. You get overdone to the upside, gold, silver and platinum, all three went to Pluto straight up. They have to come down at some point. And normally, the correction is overdone to the downside. Anybody who's watching this, I urge you to take a look. You want to see it happen in real time, in three days or five days, go take a look at the stock of SpaceX. Now, SpaceX exploded to 240, dropped back to 140. That's what I expect. I wouldn't be surprised if gold hits 6000 this year. I'm still not running away from my overall call. Yeah, it's pretty scary here. It's hard to watch. And it's painful when we see gold continue to go down almost every single day. But again, you have this problem with personalities and with psychology that people ran it up, but there was no fear. And now those who are selling can't sell it fast enough. And of course, normally, they are wrong. The masses are wrong. There's an old floor saying from the floor trading days, when you can see their tonsils, give them whatever they want, they're wrong. And I'm starting to see the tonsils of the gold sellers right now, because they're selling in a panic fashion right now. All right, what's happening on the Bitcoin front then? Bitcoin just stuck between 60 and 65,000. I don't think there's anything wrong with Bitcoin. I think it's going to go higher once again. I mean, I'm a believer in it. I don't have much of it, but I'm a believer in it. I think that it is, again, if you believe in AI, and you believe in technology, then you're going to believe in Bitcoin. And of course, a lot of the younger generation, certainly much younger than me, are going to believe in that as a currency. And I could see that. And again, I like the principle behind the Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency. I like the concept of blockchain. There's a lot of good benefits to it. And we're seeing a sell-off. It's no different than gold. I mean, you saw Bitcoin go to 120, and now it's 65. Well, you know what? If Jim Rogers, Jim Rickards, and you're right, then this is a perfect buying opportunity for gold. I think it's always a buying opportunity for gold, but that is provided that the investor has the capital that won't miss a house payment or a car payment to buy it. You buy it, you put it away, you store it, and 10 years from now, it'll be worth a lot more than it is today. 100 percent. And that's why I urge everyone to reach out to my colleagues, my wonderful colleagues at ITM Trading, that can help you build a strategy and give you sound strategy and a road ahead in regards to purchasing physical gold and silver. And Baba, did I tell you the big that we've gone international? So now we can also service clients outside of the USA who are looking to buy. All right. Let's go, baby. Let's sell them. Let's get them. We're global, baby. That's it. You are. You are global. Global and golden. We love you, Baba. Thank you always for your insights. And if I don't speak to you, happy 4th. Avery, it's great to be with you. Always a pleasure. I love it. I'll see you later. Have a great 4th. Enjoy Montreal. All right. Thank you. And thank you all for watching. And Canada Day is coming up too. So happy Canada Day to all my Canadian viewers. And we'll see you soon.