Crimean Bridge is damaged and significantly weakened; Ukraine will sink it to the bottom of the sea
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Russia is unable to prove that it can change the course of the war in Ukraine in its favor, former US commander in Europe Ben Hodges said in an interview with Espreso.
Hodges noted that he was unimpressed by Russia's actions, despite having made some progress in developing unmanned technology. However, he emphasized that despite the aggressor country possessing significantly greater human and material resources, it had failed to break Ukraine's resistance.
"Therefore, I see no reason to believe that Russia is demonstrating any special ability to adapt or change the course of the war in its favor," he said. This is precisely why, in his opinion, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure are so important.
"Without energy export revenues, Russia will find it significantly more difficult to finance the war. To do so, it needs to continue supplying oil and gas to China, India, and other countries. If Ukraine continues these attacks, Russia will find it increasingly difficult to obtain the resources it needs to wage the war," explained the former commander of US forces in Europe.
The article notes that Ukraine attacks Russian convoys almost daily as they move from Rostov or Mariupol toward Crimea. This makes it increasingly difficult for the enemy to secure logistics in this direction.
"So I'm not saying the war will end soon or that Russia will soon find itself on the brink of collapse. At the same time, I don't see it being able to turn the tide of the war in its favor and achieve its strategic goals," Hodges noted.
He recalled that the Crimean Bridge is already damaged and significantly weakened, so the Russians are not using it for heavy convoys or transporting fuel, water, and ammunition by rail. Hodges notes that Ukraine's actions have already significantly reduced its logistical value.
The former commander of US forces in Europe noted that he is also impressed by the fact that Ukraine is striking two other bridges providing communication from the north to the Crimean Peninsula.
"I expect Ukrainian forces will follow through when the time is right. This requires careful preparation and coordination of many components of the operation. But, in my view, the plan already exists, and the necessary resources are in place to carry it out," Hodges said.
In his opinion, the key is to choose the right moment so that the destruction of the bridge, combined with other operations, will have the maximum effect. He doesn't know when this will happen, but he expects it will happen "sooner rather than later."
Hodges suggested that the Russian navy was forced to transfer ships, personnel, and some systems to Novorossiysk because it could no longer safely base itself in Sevastopol and other Crimean ports.
"This is certainly a positive outcome for Ukraine. At the same time, it has significantly complicated the work of the Black Sea Fleet command. Managing operations in southern Ukraine from Novorossiysk is much more difficult than from Crimea. Therefore, these changes have already had a noticeable destabilizing effect," he explained.
According to Hodges, Novorossiysk was never intended to accommodate virtually the entire Black Sea Fleet along with other port facilities and functions.
"Therefore, one can assume that it's already quite crowded there. Furthermore, the city is also within range of Ukrainian drones. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if we see new strikes on ships and infrastructure in Novorossiysk in the coming months," he stated.
The former commander of US forces in Europe said he had seen reports that some senior officers who previously served in Crimea had already moved their families to Novorossiysk.
"This shows that, despite Moscow's official statements, they themselves understand how difficult the situation in Crimea has become," he added.
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