Martin Armstrong: "That’s Not Democracy, That’s Dictatorship"

They bullshit us all the time and say we live in a democracy, but we do not. It's almost like the U.S. is the, it's kind of the last island that's going to be floating as all the other, the last ship that still hasn't sunk yet and everyone's trying to clamor and climb on board. Now, you know, I know in previous interviews we've done, you'd mentioned that your model shows that getting into 2030, 2032, it was basically predicting collapse of most governments, right? We're talking about a pretty systemic collapse of governance across the world as you've outlined. And so you mentioned the dominoes. So do you see that these events that we're watching now are the smaller dominoes that will be getting us into that kind of a situation? Do you still foresee some sort of significant collapse like that coming at the turn of the next, you know, turn of the decade? Or how are you seeing this play out? Yeah, it's not that, you know, you're going to be dying, starving on the street corner, you know. These are major political revolutions that take place roughly about every 300 years or so. All right. We went through one before where we overthrew monarchy. Then we went into a republic. That was a mistake. And they bullshit us all the time and say we live in a democracy, but we do not. All right. Nobody asked us, shall we go to war with Iran? Nobody asked that question. Shall we, you know, here's a gun. Do you have any vote on that? None. All right. Germany basically just passed a law that any man that is of military age cannot leave the country without government permission. You know, we're looking, this is what a republic is. It's not democracy. Democracy is where we get to vote. Shall we go to war? Go to Vietnam, 18 years old. I think we drafted, here's a gun, go kill somebody. You couldn't even have a drink. No less vote. All right. That's democracy. That's dictatorship. All right. So that's what I think these events are doing. You understand that. But we're talking about the masses out here. And when they get to say, you know, we're screwed. This doesn't work. I was never asked for this. I didn't agree to this. That's when you get the political change. All right. And that's what's coming by 2032. It is a process, all right, of convincing basically the public at large that this system doesn't work. And it's also creating an extremely polarized political system, not just in the U.S. Europe is also very polarized. Canada, same thing. You know, I just went up to Canada to do two conferences there in Calgary and in Vancouver. I can tell you the West has had enough of these. I mean, they're going to separate. They just passed for a referendum that's going to be in October. You know, I've advised some people, you know, as you know, I think it was largely because my father had taken me and the family to Europe when I was just a young teenager. But that taught me currency. We had to change currency every time we crossed the border. Going to school in the United States, they never even mentioned currency. So I think that family trip for the summer I spent there and taught me about currency that I didn't get from school. And so I happened to have had a friend, a client, who was an executive VP at Franklin National Bank. And that was the first bank that went down after the fall of Bretton Woods, 1974. And he knew I understood currency. And he said to me, would you come take a look at this? I think it's got something to do with currency. The bank went down. It was the first, it was I think the 10th largest bank in the country. They're the bank that started MasterCard. And they went down around 10 percent move in the Italian lira. So after that, pretty much any currency crisis, get the guy who did that one. Because they didn't teach this stuff in school. So, I mean, I've explained in Canada how we set up a currency. I got called in for the euro, creating that. The Asian currency crisis, I was called in by China itself. So I've had a front row seat pretty much anywhere around the world. And I can tell you that you're looking at a lot of separation movements. Europe, they're starting to get pissed off realizing the EU is not the panacea that they thought. And you had Ursula I know for a fact that basically they attacked, they rigged the Italian elections. Then they went after Romania, overthrew that. They threatened to overthrow the German election if the AfD won. All right. And they interfered in Hungary. And as soon as Ursula got rid of Orban, what did she do? She came out and basically said, no single country should be able to stop us. That was the promise made at the beginning. People were afraid that one country is going to become a dictator. And they said, no, it will require a unanimous vote. Because Orban didn't want to go to war with Russia. They removed him. Okay. And now she wants to change the rules. Europe is screwed. As far as anything that they originally were promising people, it's all fiction. Oh, you all be paying the interest rate. Didn't happen. This is pretty much it. So you're looking at Italy just came out, was told Ursula advocating to issue Euro bonds because they can't sell. So you get these individual countries having difficulty trying to sell their debt. And as a trader, all right, I warned them back then, unless you consolidate the debt, the euro will never compete with the dollar. Why? Because it's the same thing as if, all right, fine, we have a single currency, but we have 50 states. Doesn't mean they all pay the same interest rate. All right. And you're going to be, you're going to buy bonds from one state, but not another because you don't trust them or whatever. If California got into trouble, the traders are going to say, oh, who's next? Illinois. All right. Short that one. All right. This is what we saw with the Greece problem in 2010. All right. Soon as Greece got into trouble, who's next? Oh, Spain. So as a fund manager, the euro can't compete with the dollar. I still have to make the same decision. Do I want France? Do I want Germany? Do I want Italy? As if the currencies are still independent. Nothing changed. You're just calling it euro. Fine. But I'm still buying the debt or selling the debt. You can look in the screen at all the peripheral interest rates. They're not all the same. You know, people get questioned about Italy. Sell Italy, buy Germany. So much spread through like that, you know, on. And that's what we're facing. And that is creating the tension for separation. So I don't see the EU lasting. That may even fail by 90, you know, but I would say it could definitely go down, you know, even by 31 or 19 or 2030. And then you go into war because they need war to get the, you know, people to rally around the flag and support the EU. So they need war to do this. Otherwise, I can tell you people are going to be picking up their pitchforks and storming the parliament and say, because their pensions are geared to this stuff. And when they default, there goes everybody's retirement. It's not good for the people that see the writing on the wall that see the supply chain disruptions, the civil unrest, all this. What do you what advice do you give people? Right. Because it's a fact that we're living in a time when if we're looking if I'm looking ahead the next five or 10 years, I it's hard to imagine a scenario of just peace and prosperity. It seems like it's going to be the inverse. And so what's your advice to the average person that is seeing all this and reading the tea leaves and is concerned? What would you recommend for them? The core issue is you do not want public assets go private. So wait, public assets, meaning corporate bonds. Oh, OK. OK. OK. I'm talking about government bonds. OK. All right. Even by corporate bonds, triple A, et cetera. I will say we have one of the biggest pension funds in North America, and they shifted their portfolio this way. And S&P went in initially and said, oh, you're taking on more risk. You're going corporate. And they said, no, we they said that, you know, we use Armstrong Economics, but we did our own due diligence. And he's right. Government's default. Triple A corporate don't. And even if they did, they go to bankruptcy sale and you get money back because all the assets are sold. A government default. You get nothing. It's unsecured. You know, you can't go down to the National Gallery and lift the Picasso, you know. But, you know, this is basically what you're looking at. I would stay away from, you know, government debt. Probably the federal is OK for right now, for maybe another couple of years. You're having a lot of foreign capital coming in. And I mean, the stock market will, you know, pull back to retest the port. But I know you have all these people. Oh, the great crash. Nineteen twenty nine. All right. First of all, when the United States back then had a balanced budget, so they sold the corporate debt and bought the government. All right. So the dollar went up so high because of all the foreign capital was coming in. That's what created the protection movement. OK. Smooth hallway and all that. So it's not the same thing here. The U.S. government is not the safe haven to run to. Eventually, the computer does show that the stock market's final high is probably off in 2032. I mean, it will pull back back and forth like this. But you really want to sell all your private assets and buy government bonds? It's that question. And then you go into war. No, it's you know, that is the government that is the worst thing to own during periods of war. If you could go back in time and buy oil before the world relied on it, would you? Of course you would. Anyone would. 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