Did Kevin Warsh Just End The Gold & Silver Bull Market? Fed Meeting Summary!

Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money and today the Federal Reserve decided to hold rates steady, no cut, no hike, but they had a clear preference towards raising rates according to the dot plot data, which I'm sharing here on the screen now with Kevin Warsh, who is Jerome Powell's replacement at the Federal Reserve, giving his first speech as the chairman promising to deliver big changes specifically as they relate to five things. The first being communication, then the balance sheet, how the Fed uses data and what type of data it uses, a focus on productivity and jobs, with the final point being what he called the inflationary framework. Now the market's initial reaction to this has been less than favorable, with gold and silver giving up almost all of this week's gains coinciding with the release of the Federal Reserve statement, with all of the major U.S. stock indexes doing exactly the same as fears surrounding higher rates loom large. Due to the fact that, apart from a dot plot showing higher interest rates being favored by roughly half of the voting Federal Reserve members, the Federal Reserve removed language from its official statement, which is on the screen here, about them having a bias towards rate cuts and the market is in full panic mode because if it's anything we know about the market, it's that they hang on every word of the Federal Reserve and try to front run it based on what they say in this statement. And without a clear statement on what they plan on doing next, again, the market is in full panic mode. With the CME FedWatch tool now giving an 85 percent chance to seeing one to two rate increases in 2026, as opposed to just a 56 percent chance of seeing one rate increase back on Monday when I took this screenshot that you see on the left, forcing us to ask the question, did the Federal Reserve just kill the bull market for metals and really for everything else? And that's exactly what I want to discuss in this video, starting with analysis of Kevin Warsh's statements, what I believe they mean in reality at the Fed to deliver my assessment of whether the Fed just ended the metals bull market. And we'll finish this video with some price levels for gold and silver that I think will be interesting for you all to keep in mind as potential dip buying opportunities, especially for those of you not on an auto invest schedule yet at summit. So watch to the end for that, because it will be worth your time. Now, just before we dive in, I want to remind you all that this is going to be a very dynamic time in the markets, and if you want to participate by getting accurate pricing analysis at the click of a button with entry points and exit points and even projections on where your favorite mining stocks can go when gold and silver achieve certain price targets, as you can see on the screen here with this Pan American silver analysis, please consider signing up for my favorite analysis tool and sponsor of this video, Investing Pro from Investing.com. Investing Pro turns amateurs who may have bought some of the poor performing stocks recommended by YouTubers into informed investors. 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So jumping in, as I've been saying, these last two weeks, which are finishing up on Friday, have been absolutely crucial for gold and silver and even the mining stocks, which have moved up massively on falling oil prices. And today we got the final piece of the puzzle that we've been waiting for, which was Kevin Warsh's first statements as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Now, as I mentioned, markets have reacted negatively to the Fed's statement, as well as Warsh's speech, as they have stated a firm commitment to taming inflation, which would be great if they could do it. But at the same time, the market is in panic mode. Warsh himself said people shouldn't be too interested in how the market reacts in the first few hours or days after this decision, as the Fed's commitment to inflation needs a new approach, claiming that interest rates were restrictive or high in the context of the housing market, while being fairly accommodative or low when it comes to the financial markets. Even going on to say that the Fed's new approach to policy will try to take these things into account while admitting the Fed has no influence over the price of milk at the supermarket. And my initial reaction to Kevin Warsh's first speech is to agree with him, in that I wouldn't worry too much about how the market interprets this over the short term. Not only because it would have looked absolutely awful if he had come out favoring rate cuts in his first meeting after getting the job from Donald Trump, who had been accused of interfering in the Federal Reserve. And I said so much after Jerome Powell's last meeting, but also because he is continuing Fed policies like the ample reserves policy, which is just maintaining a huge balance sheet of funny money that the Federal Reserve printed out of thin air, despite the fact that people said he wouldn't. So my take is, it's way too early to draw conclusions and he's just given metal stackers a gift on the eve of what looked to be the start of a new move up that has only been delayed, not cancelled. Now why am I saying this? What proof do I have that people are blowing Kevin Warsh's speech and the Fed's latest statements out of proportion, which has triggered this massive market selloff? Well, the first bit of proof I have is Kevin Warsh's speech itself. Because I listened to the entire thing and the only remotely hawkish thing he said, so when I say hawkish, meaning that could be interpreted as wanting higher interest rates, is that the Fed was going to get serious about getting inflation down to 2%. Now you might say, with US headline CPI currently at 4.2%, surely that indicates there must be rate hikes coming and it's okay if that's the version of events you want to believe. But for those of you who watched the speech and listened to it, and please correct me if I'm wrong in the comments section below, did he not also say that the data the Fed worked with was flawed? Did he not say that it was backward looking and that the private sector has much better ways to look at data in real time that will help the Fed make better policy decisions while understanding they don't have an impact on the price of a jug of milk at the grocery store? Because as far as I'm concerned, he absolutely said those things. And it was deliberate because he is preparing people, including his colleagues at the Fed by the way, to consider other sources of data like trueflation just as an example, which is a real-time CPI alternative that is updated daily and claims inflation in the United States is not 4.2% as the Bureau of Labor Statistics claims, but that it's really 1.8% which is even below the Fed's target inflation rate. And I know some of you think this can't be true. But the truth is, we've all been warned in advance about this because multiple stories saying exactly that, ones that I've shared in multiple videos over the past two months on my YouTube channel, including interviews using Warsh's own words as recently as April, confirm that much is true. And once his vision of what data the Fed should be looking at is executed, it will be hard to go against the rate cuts that he will eventually be arguing for, which is why he strategically didn't share his dot or interest rate expectation on the dot plot today because it would have revealed his approach. And with the Fed's independence in question, that simply would have been a bad move. And it tells us that he plans on building his case with the task force he is putting together to tackle the five topics that I mentioned at the start of the video before he takes the mask off and confirms that he still supports a rate cutting path, which is why I think he was chosen in the first place. And by the way, he made that abundantly clear when talking about artificial intelligence in today's speech, saying it is the most important innovation of his lifetime and that the United States needs to be a winner in it, which is a strange thing, I suppose, for the chairman of the Federal Reserve to say that said he went on and said it would take timing, speed and scale to win in a eye, all of which require investment, which I interpret as him saying the Fed has to be more accommodative to help make that happen. Because as we all know, well, I compute computing capacity and data centers are not free, which is why I don't think there are going to be any real changes at the Fed or their eventual path of lower rates while maintaining a large balance sheet, even if they are successfully creating an illusion that this time is going to be different, which, by the way, Jerome Powell also did at the start of his tenure as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. And we all know how that finished with Powell presiding over the largest increase in gold and silver prices since the 1970s, which is why I am looking forward with the understanding that nothing has changed with respect to government debt. As a result of today's decision, central banks are still moving away from U.S. Treasuries in favor of gold as a reserve asset. Nothing has changed at all with respect to real interest rates in the market. And the man who was supposed to destroy the Fed's balance sheet and destroy all the funny money that the Federal Reserve has created over the past 10 years has just committed to keeping it ample. So considering the next Federal Reserve meeting is at the end of July, which Kevin Warsh stated multiple times in today's speech, was going to be a great opportunity to revisit their decisions to hold rates while having better data in hand, I think we need to push our expectations for a Fed related tailwind or push up for metals out to September or October, which is something President Trump himself alluded to in an interview he gave back in May. And it doesn't mean I am changing my base case scenario for gold or silver. Not yet, as we still have time till the next meeting. But I will say that if pressure on metals prices persists into October and we don't get that pivot on rates from the Fed by then, I suspect we're not going to be making new highs on gold or silver till 2027. But this is something we will have to keep a close eye on as the private equity and private credit market is under major pressure right now, which could force the Fed's hand to act earlier. But again, this is something that we have to keep our eyes on. Now, moving on to some actionable information in the wake of what's happened today in order to help some of you long term stackers and people looking to scale into mining stocks, help you basically make better decisions when it comes to entry points. On Sunday, I said that even the best charts couldn't predict what Kevin Warsh was going to say. But now that he said it, the charts are telling us some very important things, starting with the fact that gold, which was getting close to its 200 day moving average, is once again roughly $200 below it. Now, what happened today wasn't the end for precious metals by a long shot, but it does delay the recovery of that important level, suggesting that at least over the short term, we could retest $4,100 an ounce for gold with Investing.com's Investing Pro Technical Analysis tool that, by the way, gives you all the key buy and sell levels at the click of a mouse, suggesting additional support around $3,900 an ounce and then $3,750 an ounce as a deeper pullback area. And although that level doesn't exactly match my base case scenario, it is something to keep in mind while looking to those other levels, specifically $4,100 an ounce as a great buy level for gold should we come into it. Now, in the case of silver, the situation is as equally ugly as it is for gold, at least looking at it through short term binoculars. First off, we gave up the 200 day moving average that we just got back. So that does a little damage over the short term. And like with gold, we need to see it regain that in the not too distant future to see some follow through on price recovery moving into the second half of the year. That said, I have been working on a silver roadmap, much like the one I presented to you all for gold in my Sunday video. And if you want to see that, let me know in the comments section below, because despite this minor setback, I remain extremely bullish on silver. And when it comes to buy levels, I think investing pros technical levels of $64 an ounce and $61.60 per ounce, which lines up perfectly with the low that I presented to you all a couple of weeks ago. These are two great levels for stackers to watch and scale in at. And remember, if you want technical analysis like this, giving you buy and sell levels at the click of a button on any asset or commodity in line with the instructions that you see on the screen right now, remember that you can get it from investing.com with a subscription to investing pro. And I want to thank them once again for making this video possible. And remember that for the next 20 hours, it is 55% off plus another 15% off when you use my link right now. But that offer won't be available for long. So if you can afford it, go for it now. It is absolutely worth it. In fact, I'd say it pays for itself. So with that said, I want to thank you all for joining me in this midweek video. Yes, we have experienced a bit of a short-term setback with respect to precious metals, really as we were closing in on a major breakout moment. That said, it's nothing to worry about. The long term still looks very good for us. I will be presenting some of those points on Sunday as well as my silver roadmap. If you want to see it again, please let me know in the comments section below. But as I've said in this video, not everything is as it appears at the Federal Reserve. In fact, Kevin Warsh, which I didn't mention in the body of my presentation, said multiple times during his speech today that the Federal Reserve is always looking at old data. And what they're deciding today is always in reaction to things that happened in the past. And from my point of view, that's a bit of a tip of the hat to what Donald Trump was saying about Jerome Powell being too late Powell, if you remember that nickname that he gave him. And although I do think there is an issue with inflation, not only in the United States but worldwide, I do think that reveals a little bit about what Kevin Warsh is thinking and how he's really playing a game of chess right now to not reveal his position on how he wants to play things at the Federal Reserve. But again, we're going to keep our eye on it. I'm going to continue reporting on it right here on YouTube for all of you who are watching me every week and all of these videos. So again, if you have any additional questions with respect to what happened in today's Federal Reserve meeting or in the markets, please leave them in the comments section below and I'll be sure to address them as soon as I can. But with that said, I'm wishing you all a fantastic day ahead. Please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other in these times. Wishing you all a fantastic day ahead once again and see you in the next video. Goodbye.