Why I'm Not Buying Until $3,500 & $50, Plus Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Oil

Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. Now, in today's video, we're going to deep dive into the precious metals. We'll even take a look at oil, copper, maybe a few others, but obviously focusing on gold and silver to give my latest forecast. I've been nailing the gold and silver trade to the downside. Gold hit that 4,100 level. It pierced it and then bounced like we discussed. The question is, is there more downside? We'll discuss in the chart. In addition, my silver came down, beautifully hitting that 64 to 66 level, even piercing. And then what happens? The support level triggers and we got a bounce. So we're going to dive into the charts here and see what it means. I'm going to start with the gold chart here. We're going to start with no trend lines and build it from scratch. As again, I always try to educate in these videos. Number one, I appreciate all of your time. And number two, you guys are amazing. The comments are amazing. Everything about you guys just drives me to be even better and continue to do my best. All right. So number one, we have our parallel channel, right? So we draw our parallel here. We stretch it out. This is the first line of the parallel. We stretch it down here and we get our bottom level. And basically this has been guiding me, right? So as we had our high pivot here, our all-time high, our then our short-term drop, that was a massive drop on gold, that gave us our first high point and low point. Then the second high and the second low gave us our second point. And so all we need to do is connect those two and it gives us a general, first of all, downtrend. So we knew that gold right away is in a downtrend. And number two, it gives us a major support. If we ever hit this low area, guys, this is going to be a massive bounce. The third thing I want to mention here, which is really exciting for me as a long-term bull in gold and silver, is that down-sloping parallels eventually break to the upside. Now you don't really know when. That's the trickier thing. We know that generally you hit a trend line three times minimum and pull back. And then the fourth time it opens the door a little bit. Sometimes it can break through. Sometimes it takes the fifth hit. But the point is, again, when we look at a parallel here, guys, down-sloping parallels, the odds, and I'm talking odds and probabilities here, but once you have this, right? So what we have on gold is this. Then we go up here. Then we come down here. Then we bounced a little bit and now we're kind of coming back in. We hit this and eventually we go up maybe there and then we break out, right? And again, generally down-sloping parallels, which is what this is, will down the line break out. Now, right now we only have one hit and two hits. So we need to, at some point, go up, test it again and then pull back. And then we can potentially open the door to that bigger breakout. But like I've said to you before is that I still remain with a slight negative bias on gold in the near term. As much as I love gold and I love silver and I love the concept of the alternate to fiat currencies, which our nutty governments just continue to print ad nauseum and run up ridiculous debts, it doesn't mean that in the near term there's not some downside to be had. And that's what we've seen recently until this bounce off the 4,100 level. Now, speaking of which, we can put a trend line in right there. Here's your 4,100 level. You can see we pierced it. Very common to pierce your low pivots and then the bounce kicks in. So 4,100, which was your low pivot right here, there's your bounce. Now, my guess is we could have a little upside to about 4,400, right? So see how you have this area and you even have a little bit of a trend line like right through these lows. But either way, right around 4,300, 4,400, I think that's where we could be headed. Then I would start to kind of be a little bit more conservative thinking we could be setting up for another retest of this level, small bounce and a break through it. Ultimately, you guys know that my downside target is still that 35 to 3,600 level. Remember, this is not a near-term target. I mean, let's be fair. Gold is not gonna go like overnight to 3,500 or 3,600. Just like when I've been talking about this since gold was north of 5,000 of it going back to 3,500, it hasn't happened overnight because things take time. Charts need to digest. They need to mature. Patterns need to mature. The bottom line for me is that as someone who's holding long-term positions in gold and silver, I still wanna buy more. I just wanna wait for the appropriate level. I mean, do I wanna buy at 4,200 here or do I wanna buy at 3,500, 3,600? Now, it's not to say that if you have no gold, it's not okay to just buy a little bit here. But for me, at least, since I already have gold holdings, I'm gonna wait for that lower level. And if I miss it, I miss it. It's not the end of the world. Again, as long as you have that already allocation, right? It's just a matter of, well, where do I think it's a really no-brainer buy to buy more? So as we continue in the charts, the idea here is that, again, whether we bounce up a little bit more, maybe to 43, 4,400, maybe even retest here, at some point, we're probably going down to this lower level. If we zoom out here and we drag our parallel out even further, right? Well, what do we have? Well, let's just say we bounce around, we get a little bit more of a bounce, and then we come down, we break down. You're looking at like late July, August, at earliest, that we'll probably hit this level. What's interesting about that is you have a confluence of technical supports. Right here, right? So that's number one. And then obviously this lower, this band right here. So it gives us a general zone of where we could go to on gold. And again, this is kind of where I'm getting my general price target. This is around 3,500. This would be a pierce of 3,500, just like we pierced here, tends to pierce because panic will hit. Now, one of the key factors here that I want to make sure we understand is that if you looked at last week in gold, right? The stock market fell early in the week, gold fell. The stock market bounced late in the week, gold rallied. That's a problem. And you might say, well, you know, if you're new to gold, you might say, well, why is that a problem? And the problem is, is that gold has always been, for literally hundreds of years, thousands of years, it's been a safe haven asset. So it generally doesn't trade with the stock market. Usually it trades inverse, except for a few select times in history, like when COVID panic hit and people thought the world was ending and then everything fell. But then gold really quickly recovered and rallied to the upside, making short-term high highs, right? So the idea is that the mere fact it's trading with risk assets, that continues to show me there's too much speculative money in gold and it needs to still come down and flush those weak hands out. I know that's not what we all want to hear. Listen, I would love gold to be at 10,000, my multi-year out target, but I'm a realist too, right? And kind of faking ourselves out does no good, right? Psychologically, we all, you know, if you're long gold, you want it to go up. If you're long silver, obviously we do, but it kind of fools us. And I'm someone who doesn't want my head in the sand, right? I think a lot of you guys are like that. If you follow me, it's like, you want to know the truth even if it's not in line with what we all want to happen in the precious metals or in any investment, frankly, but it is what it is, right? All right, so that's where we are on gold. Remember, the idea here is if we had to project out, you know, let's just say we kind of come down here, we get a little bounce, we come down in this range, we bottom out, then it's going to take a little bit of time. We'd have to obviously stretch this out, but the idea is eventually, I do think if we stretch this out, that gold eventually does, you know, again, and we can draw this. I mean, and I'm not saying it's going to play out just like this, but you know, we hit, we break, and then we get that bigger breakout to the upside. And again, my guess is we don't break out of this till at least 2027 out of this down-sloping parallel. And essentially what we need to think, you need to think at least there's a period of consolidation that probably is a year long, right? After this mega move up, it's got to consolidate. At this point, you haven't consolidated and had to draw down big enough to wash out the weak hands. But again, at some point a year out from now, and we haven't broken out, and gold's kind of gone to sleep, then I could see that flushing out those weak hands, the speculative hands, and then gold actually does break out at that point. All right, let's go to silver, guys. We look at silver real quick. Here we go, let's go a little bit of a zoom in here. So here we had our support from 66 to 64. Notice why that support is there. We had our low pivot here, our high to our short-term low, our smaller, our lower high and our lower low, right? And then we still, even though we whipped down or tailed down here, we had a lower low put in, we still recovered and stayed above. And here, notice how low, lower low, and here we had an equal low, but we had the lowest close. And so it's still showing weakness, even though we didn't technically make a lower low on this drop. You got the lowest close on a daily candle since the ball moved to the upside. And that is just something to pay attention to. It's not the end all be all, but just a little bit of a nuanced note. Now, if we rally, max rally would be up here. I doubt it gets there. My thought process is it more, you more get kind of a move up to this area. Notice this low in this area right here. It's also, if you extend it out, look at how it goes right into here and then even more so right through there, right? So this is gonna be now right around 71, 72 is gonna be near-term resistance. And that'll be what's telling, do we go up and kind of tag it? And then we finally break down and then we go to 54. And 54 is obvious here just because it's a high pivot and a high pivot. Now, do I think it stops there? No, at some point I think it has to go back to 50. And I think, you know, it's so interesting because I've been saying, you know, the reason why 50 is so intriguing is that it was the high in 1980, it was the high in 2011, basically, give or take, and a lot of comments. And I read the comments, guys, again. And that's why I say I appreciate all the kind words, even if I can't respond to each and every one of them, I do quickly glance through them and read them and it really motivates me, the kindness from all of you. But the key here is that people write and they're like, well, you know, the dollar isn't worth the same, silver's not the same based on inflation as it was in 1980, nor in 2011. Absolutely right. But what is the same, and the reason why you see these retraces on charts is because human emotion. So short-term, things get out of whack. It's one of the reasons why, if I thought fair value was $50, I probably wouldn't buy it. I don't like buying at fair value. I like buying at discounts. So I agree with that, that it's not the same, but when you have emotion in investors and they see it getting down to 50, they panic, they sell, which causes that wick down or that tail down piercing 50 bucks, and it's oversold at that point, because you're right, it's not the same. You know, we have higher inflation, et cetera. You know, inflation, I mean, really silver should be way higher, but that's where it becomes a deal. And that's what I'm always looking for in terms of buying, right? So those are some of the keys here on the charts of silver, all right? So again, 54 for support, if it gets through there. And listen, if we can get above 71, 72, then you actually have a shot of getting back to this trend line and maybe even retesting here. But let's first see what happens here. Like, which way breaks? Does 64 break or does 72 break? One or the other, that's what we're watching. Quickly looking at copper here, guys. Let me bring that chart, the right chart up here. We'll bring up this chart of copper. So copper has broken a key trend line right here. Look at this beautiful trend line. Low pivot, low pivot, low pivot, low pivot. And look, it's retraced into that. Actually hit it right here. So number one, I would still view this as a slight negative upper end of the long-term parallel. So we know there's a lot of resistance up here. Now remember, doesn't mean it can't break out. It could. We saw the S&P break out of a parallel. But again, you must respect these trend lines until proven otherwise. So I have to go with the fact that that's resistance, especially with this secondary trend line, zooming right up here until proven otherwise, okay? So right now, this would be slightly bearish bias for a turndown and a breakdown. Notice again, this low coexists with this high and this high. Very cool in terms of that. So that makes sense why it bounced where it did. So we'll continue to watch that. And then platinum and palladium real quick. We'll quickly touch on oil. My buy level on platinum is getting closer and closer, guys. I've been telling you guys, I've been waiting for basically below 1,600 to about 1,500. This is my buy zone down here. And then palladium actually did hit my buy zone down here, my first buy zone, my dip the toe in the water. And I did with Smart Money Commodity members. I did. Speaking of which, guys, I'll be dropping a members-only video here on YouTube. All right, so again, if you're on my YouTube homepage, you should see a Join button. I'll also put it in the description down below of this video. But again, it's a couple bucks a month basically. And at least once a week, I'm doing a members-only kind of exclusive video. You also get additional bonuses. And really what it comes down to is if you like what I'm doing, then it's a way to support the channel. Again, I always tell you guys, I have 15 plus employees and I'm trying to always elevate my game, their game, bringing technical analysis to you guys and education. I'm also gonna do it where when we do sales, like on courses, I'm gonna give you guys, if you're a member, you're gonna get probably an extra discount on top of what everyone else gets. Just little bonuses here and there. Honestly, it's gonna add up to a lot more than $10 or $12 or whatever a month, right? But the idea that that's the goal. You guys are showing me support, I wanna show you support back and give you bonuses. So anyways, just a cool little thing there. All right, lastly, quickly, I just wanna go to oil. And again, I always try to respect your time and not have these videos be too long. Oil here, look at this, guys. This is a huge zone on oil right here. We are right at this pivot point. Look at this, right here, this low, this low. This is your break point, basically $84, $83 a barrel. We get below this on a daily closing basis. We should start to maybe even see a flush down here to 67. At 67, I'm a buyer. If it flushes, like let's say the straight gets announced as being officially open and there's a deal signed, then I do think when oil opens, it flushes into that level. And then I actually think it bounces back into the mid-70s, the reason being is that you'll have a lot of these strategic reserves from all these countries that they're gonna start to buy. And it's gonna lift price back up. So I think for at least months going forward, whenever the straight is open and oil flushes down to 67, you'll get a bounce on oil back into the mid-70s for a multi-month period. So that would be an amazing trading opportunity if you are able to trade it. Again, if it's during market hours or pre-market, post-market, USO on oil, otherwise you have to be in the futures market. Like if it's on a Sunday and Sunday the futures open at 6 p.m., then you gotta trade the futures. But anyways, I digress. All right, go have a great rest of your weekend. Member-only video tomorrow. I'll do one on YouTube as well here for everyone. But again, I'm excited to announce that and I'll see you all tomorrow. Thanks so much for your kind words, your time and all your support. Take care.