Will End Of Iran War & New Rate Cut Hopes Be Enough For Silver in 2026?

Hello everyone welcome to bald guy money and we are currently entering the 17th week of gold and silver price consolidation since the big pullback that we got at the end of January with it becoming clear that many people are becoming both bored and frustrated with the precious metals market but looking back at the summer of 2025 right after gold hit $3,500 an ounce and consolidated for 18 weeks before price finally broke out again with gold leading the way up paving the way for silver to go above $50 an ounce for the first time ever in October of last year. History suggests that with no changes to the fundamentals for gold and silver sometimes all we need is a little time and healthy consolidation before we get the next big move up and considering the fact that we are entering the 17th week of consolidation with news that a breakthrough has been made with Iran that may lead to an end to the war and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz which we should of course take with a huge dose of skepticism it is possible that we are getting the catalysts needed to trigger the next move up as the market slowly runs out of sellers because if you haven't sold your silver positions 17 weeks after the January pullback I doubt you're going to do it now and potential buyers now have a reason to step back in on the hopes of falling oil prices renewing chances of a rate cut in 2026 which may be why we've seen both Bitcoin and Pax Gold react positively since the story about the deal with Iran broke which again we need to take with a grain of salt so considering these factors I want to address comments that I've been getting recently from viewers specifically these ones here from Daniel and Jonathan and take a look at them through the lens of silver to answer their questions starting with how bad is the trend for silver are people really being naive about a recovery or are there positive signs and how price is developing and once that's covered we will talk about $300 silver and if it's really possible to see it by summer of this year now just before we get started I want to remind all of you looking to buy gold and silver this weekend that Summit Metals is an A-plus rated company by the Better Business Bureau everything they sell is authentic and for those of you who may be slow playing the market a bit not wanting to miss out on the next move up but also not wanting to spend all of your cash at one price point in case of a slightly deeper pullback remember that they have a great assortment of fairly priced fractional gold pieces with tenth of an ounce Krugerrands currently below $500 a piece and if you're new to Summit Metals be sure to get your three ounces of silver at spot with this silver starter pack limit one per household link to this is in the video description below so jumping in I keep hearing people say that silver is making lower lows and lower highs suggesting that the price action for silver is only going in the downward direction but as you can see in this image here showing silver price development on a monthly basis it's simply not true first of all because despite some of the big swings we've seen since the January pullback silver's price has been moving sideways on a monthly closing basis consistently finishing in the 70s telling us that all of the damage done to silver's price happened immediately following the big January pullback and as silver consolidates something else we can see here in the data that directly contradicts the naysayers is that in the months of April and May silver made higher lows versus the previous month so in April the low was higher than the March low and so far in May the low is higher than the April low with a higher high relative to the April high being achieved in May suggesting not only are we running out of sellers on the market with most people who wanted to exit silver having already done so but it also suggests that buyers are starting to gain interest again following extremely weak March and April performance now although short-term weakness isn't necessarily dead and buried the upward trend that silver is in becomes extremely clear when you look at data showing the average annual price since 2000 a trend that entered a major upswing in 2006 and 2007 with the launch of the first smart devices like the iPhone which has put a major strain on silver supply and demand along with solar panels under the green energy movement and military demand fueled by silver hungry smart weapons leading to a major breakout in price just last year due to structural supply deficits for silver where more is being consumed than being mined out of the ground now what most people don't realize about this is that it takes a while for a deficit to assert itself on price which is why i said back in 2021 and the video is still there if you want to see it to expect 60 silver by 2026 as the crunch on supply likely starts to show up in price by 2026 but with no real solution to this problem and price now exceeding my target from 2021 which was more of a conservative estimate rather than a price ceiling there is little chance of seeing a serious cooling in this trend in fact it's only gaining momentum since the october breakout above 50 an ounce from a 40-year base which is why i still expect to see a resumption of upward movement in the price of silver much like we saw following the april 2006 pullback which i've mapped here versus the 2026 monthly closing high from february and the 1980 monthly closing high also from the month of february of that year to show you that silver price is behaving much more like it did during the 2006 pullback retaining 80 percent of its price versus the monthly closing high than it is the 1980 monthly closing high from february where silver only retained 38 of its price three months on now since i think all of that data makes a strong case supporting a sideways consolidation for silver that will be followed by at least one more strong move up the question remains can we still see 300 silver this summer and for those of you like daniel who asked where all of this chatter about 300 silver by this summer is coming from it is coming from mr michael oliver from momentum structural analysis a friend of the show who did a video with me back in april who in all fairness has said to expect 300 silver by the end of the year with a strong likelihood that we see a blow off top this summer bringing silver again to 300 an ounce now as we start what's most important here is not that i agree with mr oliver on the target of 300 silver but that we completely agree on new highs being made this year and for those of you who like to argue and put people down let this be a lesson in focusing on what we agree on as opposed to the small details you disagree on so since we're nearing the end of may and summer officially ends on september 23rd that gives us about four months for silver to hit that 300 target and giving mr oliver the benefit of the doubt i took the most explosive five month period for silver price that we've ever seen that being the 340 percent increase between september 1979 and the top of january 1980 to see what would happen if we got a repeat of that now at 75.48 cents per ounce and as you can see here such a rise heading into the summer which is contingent or dependent on a major crash in the bond market and in support of mr oliver's message here i will say the bond market isn't looking too great right now silver could reach as high as $332 an ounce if we see a repeat of this move meaning yes it is possible but from my point of view is rather unlikely even though we both agree that silver price will make a new high in 2026 as i favor the copper recovery model which for those of you who follow copper price will know had an intermediate blow off top in july of last year followed by a news-driven pullback associated with tariffs so something like what we saw with the pullback for gold and silver coinciding with the announcement of kevin warshaw's jerome powell's replacement at the federal reserve after which fundamentals for copper which is also in a supply deficit right now i think that's an important note to make during this video those fundamentals reasserted themselves with copper price showing strong signs of recovery between weeks 17 to 21 following the 25 price dump and achieving a new high in the 23rd week following the big pullback which for silver and gold would mean we start seeing signs of recovery in the coming few weeks with a new high in play as soon as mid-july in line with michael oliver's timeline but earlier than my september or october expectation in the case of silver and why i say that is because that's when i expect us to start seeing just how serious the federal reserve is about increasing interest rates in 2026 which according to the cme fed watch tool is the expectation that has been priced into the market but if we see the fed just hold rates where they are or even cut them which is still my expectation along with wells fargo bank which i talked about in my last video all of the negativity that has been priced into gold and silver will have to be priced out easily paving the way to new highs for both metals before the end of the year so as we run out of sellers of gold and silver on the market and slowly see the buyers re-entering the market which is of course indicated in that data i showed you with respect to silver making higher lows in the months of april and may versus the previous month as well as a new higher high in the month of may versus the high of april i think this tells us that moving forward we're going to see more positive development of precious metals prices as opposed to negative development now of course that doesn't mean that we're going to hit 300 silver by this summer and of course my expectation by the end of the year potentially early next year is to see silver in that next wave up reach between 150 and 200 an ounce so make note of that if you're not clear exactly where i stand on that but with that said i hope that clarifies for you all how i see the situation moving forward why i think it's not naive to expect higher metals prices moving forward but also why i think we need to be a bit more conservative with respect to our price expectations while still being able to celebrate those numbers that michael oliver has shared should we see them hit so with that said that's all i have for you in this video i'm wishing you all a fantastic week ahead please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other see you all next sunday goodbye