$100 Silver By December? What Bonds, Bailouts, Jobs, And The Yen Are Saying!

Fantastic performance for silver in the last four months of the year in each year since the 2022 bottom with silver up in 12 of the 16 months between September and December from 2022 to 2025. Hello everyone. Welcome to bald guy money. And last Sunday, I warned you all that interventions in the Japanese yen could happen as soon as this week, which would be bullish for gold and silver. And as you can see in the charts here on the screen for a moment, it was with interventions on Wednesday and Thursday, sending both metals up from their pullback levels around $4,200 for gold and $64 for silver, which I also shared in that very same video. But on Friday, we saw a reversal with U.S. jobs data coming in well above market estimates, causing trading algorithms to sell metals as rate hike expectations went up, settling in at nearly 60%, expecting a hike in the September Federal Reserve meeting, leaving metals and mining stocks flat on the week. Even after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller hinted that he would be inclined to support holding rates in September, as long as there are no inflation surprises between now and the September 16th decision, adding that there are signs that inflation is finally starting to ease. So in this video, I want to cut through all the noise and talk about what really happened this week, why U.S. jobs data may not be as bearish for gold and silver as some may think, including comments made by President Trump as well as Vice President Vance that I think suggest what we should prepare for during the September 16th Federal Reserve rate decision. Once that's covered, I want to If we should still expect to see that this year, and if not, what scenario is most likely to play out by also touching on September to December performance for both gold and silver since the 2022 bottom, with two channel announcements at the end of this video that I think will be interesting, especially for anyone who has wanted to speak to me directly on a call. Now, before we get started, for those of you who are buying gold and silver right now, please remember that Summit Metals is an A plus rated dealer by the Better Business Bureau. Their prices are fantastic. Their products are authentic. No scams, no rip offs. And for those of you who just want to set it and forget it, check out their auto invest option that buys a set basket of gold and silver of your choosing at the end of every month and sends it directly to your home. It is the best option for people who are stacking for retirement. They have products both big and small. So this isn't just for big budget stackers. And I think this is the most responsible way to prepare your long term metals position, especially if you're still working. And I'll leave the link to this in the video description below. So to start, I want to first circle back to Wednesday, because that's when we got the intervention on the Japanese yen, sending it from that danger zone I talked about in last week's video of 160 yen to one U.S. dollar back down to about 156 yen to one U.S. dollar today. Now, we saw this in early August, which resulted in that big reversal for gold and silver when the Bank of Japan intervened in cooperation with the U.S. Treasury. And what I want to point out here before we move on is it did not work. So for anyone who doesn't know what to make of the market right now or is worried about rate hikes, crashing metals, let me say this. As long as the Japanese yen is above 150 yen to one U.S. dollar, more interventions are possible. And as long as it keeps making its way back to 160, interventions are almost a guarantee, which means surprise bullish moves for precious metals can happen at any time based on this dynamic alone. Also making it very hard for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September as it would strengthen the dollar and apply more pressure on the Japanese to dump U.S. debt. Now, of course, all of this is causing a major headache for the U.S. Treasury, led by, of course, Scott Besant, because every time the Bank of Japan sells U.S. bonds for U.S. dollars to buy Japanese yen to strengthen their currency, it causes U.S. interest rates to go up and bond values to go down, again leaving gold and silver as the only safe havens out there. But Japan isn't the only one contributing to this issue right now, because we know that China, which used to be the largest foreign owner of U.S. debt, has been selling U.S. treasuries in favor of gold. And now Norway is joining the party with their sovereign wealth fund poised to sell off a large part of their U.S. debt too. And for my Canadian and American viewers out there who may think this is no big deal because Norway is just some small European country that doesn't matter, let me remind you all that Norway is a very wealthy country with a two trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund built on the country's oil wealth, which is why, by the way, Norway never joined the European Union, because they don't want to share that wealth. And according to reports, Norway, which is the 13th largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, is set to sell off 80 billion dollars in U.S. treasuries, which makes Scott Besson's four billion dollar buyback operation look like small potatoes, as he'd have to execute that transaction 20 times just to absorb what the Norwegians want to sell, which, as I've warned in past videos, is going to trigger more U.S. bond selling as people try to get ahead of the Norwegian sale, forcing the treasury and at some point the Federal Reserve to step in and buy those bonds that nobody else wants in a major bailout that makes the 2008 bailouts look small. And this is all very bullish for gold and silver. So when I hear about a good jobs report being bad for gold and silver and people talking about Warsh being a tough guy and wanting to do the right thing, to be honest, I just want to laugh because revisions to monthly jobs reports have largely gone one way since 2023, and that direction is down. And even if the market, which is largely impacted today by computer algo trading, which is trading real world assets that humans hold and determining the price of them based on words people use in speeches or numbers that may or may not be true, if those algos actually think the jobs market is strong, I can assure you that people at the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and people running for office right now in the U.S. midterms understand perfectly well that it is not, which is presumably why Vice President J.D. Vance and President Donald Trump both said they want the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates just this past week. Now, as they say, the world is a stage, and with the executive branch of the U.S. government publicly applying pressure to the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September to maintain the illusion of independence, I expect Kevin Warsh to come out on September 16th and say, the Federal Reserve is independent. We do what we think is right. We don't listen to the president when he asks us to cut interest rates, so we're going to hold rates because that's the right thing to do. That's what I think we're being set up for, and that hold is, in my opinion, as good as a cut, especially in this environment where inflation is high and consumer prices are rising well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent goal. And, of course, I can't guarantee that's exactly what's going to happen or that's exactly what we're getting set up for, which is why I will do a video on September 16th to take you all through the fallout of whatever it is that actually happens is. But if we do see that September hold, that is a clear giveaway that the real bailout is coming, that the situation is much worse than they'll publicly admit to, and that will send precious metals to much higher price levels with almost immediate effect, with a rate hike largely priced in at this point. Still with the real possibility of returning to the support levels I shared in last week's video, which for gold is between $4,200 and $4,400 per ounce, and for silver is between $61 and $64 per ounce. And although we should be psychologically prepared for pullbacks and financially prepared to take advantage of them if they happen, the question remains, what would be the upper price levels for gold and silver that we could expect to see if the Fed ends up holding rates, which, as I've already explained, is equal to cutting rates? Well, that is what I want to cover in this video's viewer question, which comes from Chris Paul, hello Chris, who asked if I still expect to see $100 silver by Christmas, and although we're still before that crucial September Federal Reserve meeting, it's a topic I want to address nonetheless to show you all whether or not $100 silver by December is possible and whether or not it's probable, including what the data suggests about where gold will finish the year Now, jumping in, for those of you who may be new to precious metals, gold and silver made local bottoms in September 2022, pulling back from $2,070 an ounce, which gold achieved in early 2022 at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine war, and $30 an ounce, which silver achieved in 2021. And since I was already making YouTube videos back then, I can tell you all, from experience, people were upset back then too. Some said it was the end for precious metals, that it was all a pump and dump scheme, and that all metals YouTubers are scammers and morons, reacting emotionally to a correction that, when we look back at it today, represented an amazing opportunity to purchase gold and silver before they broke out to new all-time highs in an obvious bull market for precious metals. Driven, of course, by the return of real negative interest rates, a bear market in U.S. bonds that kicked off in 2022, the violation of U.S. dollar neutrality, which also happened in 2022 when Russian assets were frozen and seized at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the 2023 U.S. banking crisis, which triggered the first Federal Reserve bailouts of this cycle when they initiated their bank term funding program after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, amongst other banks, of course, leading to a stabilization in metals prices and eventually a breakout in the price of gold to new all-time highs that coincided exactly with the end of the bank term funding program and led the way for silver to do the same thing last year and has resulted in fantastic performance for silver in the last four months of the year in each year since the 2022 bottom with silver up in 12 of the 16 months between September and December from 2022 to 2025 at an average increase of 5.9 percent per month with gold being up in 10 of those 16 months at an average increase of 2.6 percent per month indicating that the final four months of the year are very bullish for precious metals based solely on its seasonal performance since that 2022 bottom as we also remember and recognize just how dovish or gentle the Federal Reserve has been in those months especially in election years which this year just so happens to be now to answer the question based on the performance of gold and silver in the last four months of 2025 it's perfectly reasonable to think that gold and silver could retest their all-time highs by the end of the year as price development for silver in line with September to December 2025 performance would bring it from $66.54 an ounce which was the all the way up to $117 an ounce with gold reaching $5,536 an ounce based on that same methodology so in short it is possible but is it probable or is it likely to happen now i have already said in recent videos that the $4,800 level for gold and $70 level for silver are going to be key barriers for the metals to get past before we can start thinking about much higher prices and that's why at least today being roughly two weeks before a crucial Federal Reserve meeting where the outcome is still a toss-up despite my suspicions that were being set up to accept a hold from the Federal Reserve i am more comfortable sticking to my traditionally conservative approach which some people don't like but i think it's the best way to communicate things here on the channel and i say that even though the macro setup for metals is extremely bullish right now in fact it's much more bullish than it was even at the end of last year but despite that i will apply the average price growth for precious metals over the last four months of the year between 2022 and 2025 as i think that's a reasonably bullish expectation to set leading into what is arguably going to be a huge 2027 for gold and silver and suggests we could be looking at $83 per ounce silver and $4,939 per ounce gold by the end of the year with gold likely experiencing a little more resistance at the $5,000 per ounce level that said whether the next move up happens this year still or early next year remember that when things seemed absolutely hopeless back in September 2022 and some viewers were questioning the obvious bull case for gold and silver saying in this comment that you can see on the screen they ain't going anywhere i just want to say that was the best time to buy and higher prices for gold and silver are coming and this market isn't going to top out until after the stock market correct and not until we see a larger bailout of the financial system which we've been getting in small pieces since 2023 without actually solving the problem and it is something i expect to see sooner rather than later and people preparing for retirement need to keep this long-term point of view in mind instead of lamenting about one week back in January 2026 especially if you are overexposed to the stock market now coming to the two channel announcements i want to make in this video the first one is for people who want to have a direct private call with me potentially to discuss your portfolio or whatever else it is you want to talk about i will be having private one-on-one calls with everyone who is a full year member to my patreon service the calls will happen in September and October but you have to join within the next two weeks in order to qualify for that and we can discuss your portfolio i can show you what my breakdown looks like what my portfolio looks like which by the way is something i already share with the patreon community this call may be helpful for those of you who are preparing for retirement we can discuss your goals or anything else it is you want to talk about so i will leave the link to join my patreon down in the video description and pinned comment below for people who are interested in joining and getting the full year with that extra benefit of course of having that call with me just remember you have to join within the next two weeks in order for that offer to be valid and for those of you who have been asking me about poland i have started a new youtube channel a separate youtube channel showing what life in poland looks like i will be posting there every two weeks which will include travels around poland stays in hotels and showing you all what the cost of visiting or even living in poland looks like so check out the channel bald guy in poland if you're interested in that if not feel free to ignore it but i will also link up the channel in the video description below for those of you who are interested and with that said that's it for this video i'm wishing you all a fantastic week ahead please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other i'll see you all in next week's video goodbye