Ukraine presented Russia unpleasant "surprise" on the front lines; Kyiv paralyzed Russia's advance
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Russia's war against Ukraine has been going badly for Putin in recent weeks , both on the ground and in the air, The Wall Street Journal reports . In recent months, Ukrainian forces have effectively stalled and paralyzed the numerically superior Russian army, gaining a tactical and technological advantage. Now the summer should show whether Ukraine can turn this into a strategic turning point, the analytical paper notes, but Russia is losing momentum. "Ukraine is certainly in a stronger position than many expected," said military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi. Experts note that this result came as a surprise to many military experts, as well as to Putin and the Chief of the General Staff, Gerasimov, who had expected to capture Donbass first by December and then by early summer. However, the situation on the front looks different. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Russian offensive has slowed , and the Kremlin's claims of imminent victory are increasingly out of sync with the situation on the front. Ukraine has intensified drone strikes, refined its tactics, and is increasingly disrupting the advance of Russian units.
Experts warn, however, that it's too early to talk about a full-blown turnaround. War proceeds in cycles of adaptation, and Russia will seek a response to Ukrainian technological and tactical improvements. "At this stage of the war, we can only look ahead with certainty for a few weeks," Gadi said. The WSJ's main conclusion: Russia isn't winning the way the Kremlin is trying to portray it, but it's not in a state of collapse either. For Putin, this is an awkward middle ground: the army is suffering high casualties, there are no immediate gains, and superior numbers aren't yielding decisive results. Yet, the Kremlin continues to adhere to its previous goals, making the coming months critical. If Ukraine maintains its advantage in drones, reconnaissance, and precision strikes, summer could be the moment when the Russian campaign finally loses momentum.
Earlier, a channel close to Ukrainian military intelligence reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had begun to carry out more active operations than the Russian Federation. The Telegram channel Ukraine Context, which is close to Ukrainian military intelligence and Kirill Budanov personally, reports that the situation on the front has begun to noticeably and significantly shift in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to the channel, Ukrainian units are currently conducting more active operations than the Russian army. At the same time, Russia has recorded a decline in the influx of new contract soldiers of approximately 30%. "The situation at the front has recently begun to change significantly. ... The Russian Ministry of Defense failed to meet its recruitment plan for the first quarter of 2026: instead of the planned 33,000-35,000 monthly, it recruited only 70,500 over the entire three months. And this is only the beginning of the mounting problems the Kremlin will face in the near future," the statement noted. This means Moscow is already tens of thousands of troops short at the start of the year. For the Kremlin, this is not just a paper problem: the Russian army continues to suffer high losses, and reinforcements are becoming less stable. Against this background, the dynamics of the front are also changing. While Russia previously attempted to maintain the initiative through constant assaults and numerical pressure, now, according to Ukraine Context, Ukrainian forces are acting more actively. The source believes this is only the beginning of mounting problems for Russia. The decline in numbers, high losses, and the lack of major breakthroughs could undermine Moscow's ability to maintain the current tempo of the war.
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