Fast Money Traders Talk Markets Closing In On New Highs

So, will these be the trades that take the markets to new highs, Guy? Yes, Mel. Well, it better be because that's the biggest weighting, right? And it feels like, to me, now we're in June, it's going to be, before you know it, second half of the year. People are starting to chase now. People that are behind the eight ball are saying, hmm, year's going to get late really quick. We better start playing a little catch up. But I think that's what you're seeing. In terms of the SMH, it's make or break time. And I know it sounds crazy, but it's had a huge run off those lows in April. 283, I think, was the all-time high. This time last year, we're within striking distance of that. I mean, you could potentially have one of these epic double tops, but it has to get there first. Was it make or break earning season, and didn't we get through that just fine? Yes. Right. Well, they ran into it a lot, right? So the bar was high, and they actually did a pretty decent job of meeting the bar. I think sort of what's going on now, you know, we always talk about the market absolutely hates uncertainty. It rather would have bad news that it can digest. I feel like this is the flip side of that. The market is just on hope. Hope that we get a deal. If we get a deal with China, maybe that's very good for chips. And the hope might be better than whatever the actual reality is. That sort of seems – and you have the VIX now, sub-17. I mean, it's really not that long ago that we were in a very, very different kind of tape. So this seems a little too hopeful for me. You know, Q1 earnings, I think the bar was really low, right? So think about this. We had the banks come in about, you know, I think it was April 11th, 12th, or something like that. And they got off to a great start. But if you think about, like, where we just were with the market and the volatility, I think a lot of folks didn't think that was going to be it, right? From April 7th, April 9th, that period where we kind of bottomed. So, you know, as we got further into earnings season, I think the big debate was, what is mega cap tech going to do? What are some of these semis going to do? And so when you go and look at what the SOX did off the lows in April 7th, it doubled the performance of the S&P 500, right? But it's still down about 12 percent or so. And we are a – whisker or whisper? Either. We just had this debate, people. So that's why. For like five minutes. I know we did. But I'm going to say whisker. I'm in the whisker camp. OK? All right. And, you know, so let's just see. Taiwan semi out this morning with base sales up better than expected. You know, some of the analysts I was reading, they're like, oh, we can't figure out why. Well, they're double ordering in front of this stuff, like, given all the uncertainty or whatever. But the other fact is, and this did come out of earnings season, is that CapEx was intact, right? Like, a lot of folks who thought, given the uncertainty, maybe you'd see a pullback, that sort of thing. We didn't. And so, you know, like, I get it. And as a silver lining guy on the desk, I get what Guy is saying, because look at today. GM, Ford, Toll, Lennar, FedEx, UPS, Schlumberger and Exxon, take your pick or whatever. So I was taking two from these groups that have really been laggards, if you will, and they had a day. They're still not anywhere near their prior highs, but I think it's worth noting that that could suggest a little bit of a broadening out as we get within a whisker of those prior highs. Yeah, and you're clearly seeing, like, to your point, the CapEx has continued to be strong and the A.I. demand is not going anywhere. We've seen that with NVIDIA earnings. You saw that with Taiwan Semi. And I think, too, the biggest optimism right now is what's going on with these talks with the U.S. and China. And if you do start to see any sort of easing of those export controls, that's what people are hopeful on right now. So, you know, have they had a big run up? Yes. But as if you're starting to see some of those things starting to ease, investors are going to continue to get in here. So I do think you're going to see some of that catch up trade that Guy is pointing. Yeah. I mean, obviously, the way Tim talks, Tim talks about semis as a leading indicator very often. And so does this indicate that the economy is actually on better footing than we all think? I don't know. And the point about it spreading in terms of the market participation, that's also a good sign. Yeah, I think it's a good sign for the market. I don't know if it's a tell on the economy. Maybe it is. Maybe I just look at the world a little bit differently. I think the economy is a little bit of a different story right now. But the semi trade clearly is back in play. And if you want to play the game, what game would you like to play? The would you rather? So many. So many good ones. Can I play it? Would you rather? Here's one for you. This is not what we've done before. Qualcomm or NVIDIA guy at these levels. You know what, Mel? I'm glad you asked that. I mean, NVIDIA is sort of mired here at this 143 level. You know what I feel about in terms of price to sales. Qualcomm, I think, is about to break out through a one year downtrend that we've been in since this time last year. Valuation is obviously pretty compelling. It always is. And I think if you want to play the game, Qualcomm is the place to be. So then.