Why Force Can’t Fix Market Risk in Iran | Bijan Kian

People are wondering when the Iran war is going to end. But there is a major component that nobody's talking about right now that could have a really big impact on this war. Today we sit down with Bijan Kian who's the first Iranian American that has served two U.S. presidents directly. He's involved with Iran on the ground. He will tell us what's going on. Rest assured this Islamic Republic will be gone. Will be gone. There's going to be a very difficult period. See I'm like I don't think they will let go easily. I think as we saw in Iraq the people were trying to keep a status quo. They will hide weapons where they know where they are. Right after a new government comes in maybe a transitional government comes in they will start assassinations. There is a need for a force to stay there to make sure it's all normalized. And this force is available in Iran. You know we see ethnic groups in Iran coming out. I'm Siamak. Welcome to Market Insider. Bijan it's great to have you on. Welcome. Good to be back with you Siamak. Thank you. Thank you for all you do. Epoch Times the most courageous media outlet I know. Thank you. A lot of people are concerned about what's going on in Iran especially that the markets are reacting to them. There's a lot of uncertainty. Can you tell us what's happening right now with the war with Iran? The country is in chaos. Top leadership has been eliminated. If you ask the question who's running the country it's not the president. The elected so-called we don't know if he's alive or dead. If he's alive he's in pretty bad shape. The leader right. This is the third supreme leader as they call it over there. The son of the Ayatollah. The most criminal character in recent history. He's dead and people are celebrating that. They're electing a new supreme leader in a building that was bombed and through people who could not get together to do anything let alone elect a new the conclave take place and elect a new leader. Nobody is really in charge of anything. IRGC is kept active and they are importing foreign murderers killers hired guns to kill Iranian people as many as possible. And if you ask me who's the beneficiary of all of this brutality who's the beneficiary of this government staying in power one more day I would invite you to take a look at who has been the beneficiary of a corrupt inept system for 47 years amassing enormous wealth and they just have to keep it. They went to Pakistan and they brought in groups. It's called Zainab youn. These are Shia Muslims in Pakistan. They brought them in to kill Iranian people to stay in power. They went to Iraq and brought in Hashtishavi or Kata'ib Hezbollah also hired guns killers criminals to come and kill Iranian people. The people who want to keep their status and their money are bringing foreign fighters to kill Iranians and the armed forces are right now in two camps. One camp is seeing the writing on the wall and this is the majority. This is the majority of armed forces. They see that. They've heard the messages of stay home. People are rising. Stay home. Don't confront the people. They got the message. This is the large group. But there is another group who's paid to keep this group in check and not give up. They're getting paid by again same people who want to keep their wealth in any way they can. And of course the Russians are very active. Physically inside Iran and intellectually assisting the Islamic Republic in coming up with plans of deception. Disinformatia is what the name of the game is and they're helping them. There's different groups within the army. Like there is the Basijis, there's the IRGC and then there's the army. Who are these groups? Well the armed forces. The armed forces of Islamic Republic are basically irregular armed forces like the ground forces, the air force and the navy. Well nothing's left of it right now. More than 60 vessels of the Islamic Republic navy have been destroyed. They don't have an air force. They don't have a navy left. But these are the regular forces. Air, ground and sea forces. Plus they have a fourth branch because they don't trust their regular air force. They have a fourth branch which is air defense. And now they're kind of consolidated but still they're kept separate because they don't trust the air force. They have to create a force against their own air force. To watch their... Exactly. And then there's another force. There's another force and that force is the people's Basij. Which means the paramilitary, a regulated militia made out of regular people. You know a Basiji could be a shop owner downtown. A Basiji could be somebody who works in construction but gets paid to be ready to be deployed. Kind of like reservists. To give you an example of who they are, what they do, there are movies of someone who is carrying his sidearm, is riding in the back of a motorcycle and just riding through the streets and just shooting people. That's... The guy is a businessman. He's known. Everybody knows his name. They know who he is. And this is the Basij. Basij operate out of mosques. Mosques act as forward operating bases. And these individuals are active. They're managed by mostly the alumni of IRGC. Retired IRGC officers who get to command these units. And their numbers are large. Maybe altogether... Who knows? No one has the exact number but a couple million people could be employed within the Basij. And of course, regular army, which is much stronger than the IRGC, is also part of that structure. But the Basijis are regular individuals. So they're regular people, business owners and people that have jobs. They just kill for Islamic Republic. They come out when it's needed and they just do whatever it... In order to understand how Islamic Republic economy works, you need to dissect it. You need to conduct some surgery because what appears to be the face of it is not the reality. The reality is like this. You have a system that creates certain values. And then whoever adheres to those values becomes closer to the center of power. Imagine you say, look, we have this belief that during a certain month in the year, we're mourning the martyred imam, second imam of Shia sect of Islam. Whoever comes in and contributes more to this mourning ceremony is going to get some advantages. License to import something. So if you follow the regime, like if you get close to the regime, then you will get the benefits, financial benefits. Exactly. Whoever is following the regime's ideology gets advantages. And where does that legitimacy come from? Well, it comes from the clerics. The clerics create the rent, create what is given as an advantage to those who follow the rules set for them. They produce this illegitimate, no value economy there. Because Siyamak should get the contract for building bridges. Because Siyamak follows these... It doesn't matter the skills. It doesn't matter. Because I come to your events. I come to what you... Exactly. And you will sit in the back of a motorcycle and shoot people when you have to. Even though you could be a very prominent business person. You could be a very wealthy... I mean, prominent, I don't know. But you have a business, regular business, but you commit to those values. The closer you are to that circle, the higher the benefits that you're going to get. And then you have to do more when it comes to shooting people. You have to do more. So illegitimate rent is produced by the clerics. The clerics deliver that to IRGC. IRGC has many economic arms. One in particular is responsible for 60-70% of major projects. It's called the Khatam al-Anbiya, the last of the great prophets base. That's where they have two of those. One is their equivalent of CENTCOM. And the other one is where all the big economic action takes place. All the contractors are there. Not all of them, but most of them. So the clerics produce the rent. The IRGC distributes it in this way. First, IRGC gives part of what it's giving to them back to the clerics by promoting the centers. So it gives them a commission. They get their kickback of that. And then IRGC keeps part of it for themselves. And then, of course, they have other benefits we could talk about. It's not just the money that's distributed. They're also getting portions of the narcotics business, which is major. It's significant. So they're in the business themselves. They're in the business of narcotics. And IRGC keeps some of the money for themselves, pays back the clerics. And now IRGC distributes this rent in the form of those contracts to the oligarchs. And the oligarchs employ a lot of people. One family controls a big portion of the Iranian economy. So you see how it works. Rent generated by the clerics distributed by IRGC back to the oligarchs. The oligarchs, over the past 47 years, according to some estimates, the Islamic Republic has been able to ship about 65 billion barrels of oil. Now, the price has been fluctuating. They estimate about $2 to $3 trillion, depending on what price you take as the average, has been earned by the Islamic Republic. Now, how is it that $2 to $3 trillion in oil revenue has gone? What do they have to show for all that money? What have they done? As you look at it, it's all going up in smoke. All this military, all these installations, they did not get that money and put it back into bettering the life of Iranian people. That's how this corrupt economy was built. Bijan, a lot of people are watching this, and people that may not know much about Iran, from the U.S., from here and across the globe, and they're confused. Why is this war happening? Why isn't it ending? It looks like a lot of the media reporting make it look like the U.S. is losing this war. To say America is losing this war, you just ask them, how are you measuring that? 60 ships have been destroyed. Air force have been destroyed. The Iranian, the Islamic Republic in Iran, there's a difference. 47-year-old criminal entity compared to thousands of world of civilization. So Iran is Iran. Islamic Republic is in Iran, not the same. And they've been decimated. They've been decimated. They cannot, I mean, look at it. Would you say Islamic Republic is winning the war, but cannot control all these aircraft flying in the air and doing all this bombing, you know, on a post? How could we say U.S. is losing? So there's something wrong with the reporting. You mentioned Russia. Russia has interest in Iran. What about China? What's their interest? And how does that look for China right now? Chinese people have always said this, are great, hardworking people who are doing their best to have a normal life. Communist Party of China doesn't want that. It doesn't want that. So you have to separate the account of the Communist Party from the Chinese people. The Communist Party has been milking for 25 years. I'm not just saying that emotionally. Look at what China has been doing in the Persian Gulf. They've been vacuuming the ocean's floor with whatever moves, whatever moves. You know, the fishermen in that area call me, complain and talk to me. And they say, you know, this is our livelihood. And Islamic Republic comes in and gives the Chinese this right. They're not doing regular fishing. Their fishing boats are vacuuming the ocean. They have no regard for any rules. And so China, and then China comes in and signs a 25-year strategic agreement. Nobody knows what's in it. To purchase oil, right? Is it the oil or is it other things? You know, everything. Everything. Do you know exactly what kind of discounts China received for the oil they buy from Islamic Republic, which is, I don't know, 80 percent, 70 percent, maybe more of oil that's being exported goes to China? Does China pay for this? Or they ship some plastic rice or whatever magical commodities they can barter with the Islamic Republic. China is taking minerals. China is taking the whatever assets the Islamic Republic has been counting on producing. China has never helped the Islamic Republic government in terms of real economic gains. China uses free energy, almost free electricity, to run digital currency farms in Iran. You wonder why Iranians can't have air conditioning in hot summer months? Because the Chinese are running electricity in those massive, massive digital data centers, digital coin production. In terms of the neighbors, Iran has been attacking Qatar and other countries. Why are they hitting countries like Qatar and Dubai and other places that some of these countries were trying to stop? They're starting a regional war. They want to expand the war because are they suicidal? Yes. Islamic Republic is suicidal. And I say that because of this. Look, imagine if you're an IRGC operator still trying to go to work, your life is not very long because the drones from up above will kill you. And if you survive, people will kill you. And if you get to remain alive, you're going to have to face a court that's going to be very unforgiving to you. So what's your future like? Why are they so dedicated? Is it... Money. That great motivator, money. Why is it taking so long? Because they're financing a resistance that goes beyond regular forces. Again, they import killers. We have some evidence, by the way. This is not just accusations of anything. We have pictures of money, cash, delivered to Iraqi fighters to come and kill. We know who is doing this. And people know it. We're not shy about it. When we get information that people need to know, media like you help us get it out there. People in Iran know who went to Iraq to be able to recruit guns for hire. We know that. People of Iran know that. So that's what I'm saying. Today, the force that unifies Iranians is so powerful. They killed their children. The mothers, Siyamak, who are dancing on the graves of their children. That rage is so scary for these individuals. And they're not thinking, just chaotically shooting everywhere. But you know what? As far as their missile operation goes, they're down 90 percent. 90 percent. Yes, they're still shooting missiles, but only 10 percent of what they were doing before. I don't think the media is completely honest in reflecting these real facts. I don't know why. You mentioned the people. They don't get a lot of voice in the media. There's not a lot of talk about the Iranian people and what they want. What's the next phase for all of this? There is a complaint that the military forces of the United States and Israel are hitting the infrastructure uselessly, with no purpose. No, that's not accurate. That's not accurate. There is a concept of disruption. When you go into an area of operation, you need to disrupt some things to take away capacity and power from your opponent. Temporarily, you disrupt. This is different from destroying. Destruction means permanently removing. So take the bombing that happened last night, the night before last night, the energy resources. They were not damaged permanently. They were damaged in a way to disrupt it. It'll be fixed, but it will take time to fix it. And the Islamic Republic is not going to be able to do that in any short period of time. You're cutting their money supply. That's what you're doing. And it's necessary. I heard some people are complaining. I don't think they're reflecting accurate information. They are just playing to the sentiment and propaganda of Islamic Republic. They want to turn this public image against this war. And this is a war of liberation of the Iranian people. America and Israel would do what serves their interest. What serves their interest is removing persistent threat. I think if you listen to President Trump, you will pick up one key word in what he says. That is permanent. He says, we want to solve this problem permanently. So that when my term ends, another president comes to the Oval Office, that this government is not there to pull wool over their eyes and continue their ways. He wants a permanent solution to this. And of course, we understand that Israel cannot live with any remnant, anything left of the Islamic Republic. Because they will come after them, right? They'll come after them. Rest assured, this Islamic Republic will be gone. Will be gone. There's going to be a very difficult period. See, I'm like, I don't think they will let go easily. I think, as we saw in Iraq, the people who are trying to keep a status quo, they will hide weapons where they know where they are. Right after a new government comes in, maybe a transitional government comes in, they will start assassinations. So there is a need for a force to stay there to make sure it's all normalized. And this force is available in Iran. You know, we see ethnic groups in Iran coming out. I don't know this for sure, but I can tell you that there's a 40 to 50% chance that the Qashqais will be the first to enter the arena within the next three, four days. So that force is there. Iranians will take their country back because I very much doubt it if Washington would take on the responsibility of removing one government and replacing it with another. The model that could be taking place for all the purposes of the benefits of those who are doing the fighting, the outsiders would follow their own objective. They want to create an environment where the Islamic Republic cannot be a threat to the United States or Israel ever again. And the conditions would be prepared for that so that these Iranian forces can take the country back. Do you see that happening with guns and people fighting in the streets and people coming using guns to go after the Basij? Or do you see Basij and the IRGC? Or do you see like some element of the military joining the people? The military would join the people the moment this group that's getting paid to stand and fight. It's a small number. It's a small percentage that are getting paid to just kill. And they have the backing of the foreign fighters. So the moment that balance is created, the military would join the people. I mean, when you talk about the military, they're cousins and brothers and relatives of regular people. They're not from another planet. Their moms and sisters and daughters are going to tell them that they need to think about them, their future. That pressure is there. No, I am very confident that the forces are going to get together. They're going to be connected. They're going to receive support. And it's not just, I believe, an inaccurate impression is that the Kurdish armed parties have the sole capability. Not true. Reports have now been submitted to the National Security Council of the United States that, hey, if you want to help Iranians take back the country, it's a great idea. Support all of the ethnicities who are willing to fight. Bijan, you mentioned that there are these tribes that can come from different parts of Iran that can fight. Some people have been arguing that Iran could get separated to different pieces. And this is something that the regime also likes to promote. Is there a chance? Never. Iran will never be. Never be partitioned. Ever. Why? You're so confident. I'm so confident because every day, every day, I talk to Azeris, Kurds, Bakhtiaris, Ashgharis, every day, every day, without exception, every day, I talk to them that they say, who are these people? They say, I'm an Azeri. If I find an Azeri who's a separatist, I don't think he'll have a good time. I'm a Kurd. I would never let that happen. We are the majority. You mentioned potential for these tribes to get involved. Tough time. How long do you think this period will last? And would it drag for a long time? Or do you think it will be quick? And what would be the outcome afterwards? First of all, it's fair to say that we cannot be aware of exactly what is happening on the ground because the situation is very critical. Some things will be happening right now without you and me hearing about it. And that's happening right now. So I'm always reminding myself, when you're trying to forecast something happening, remember the option that it may be already happening. We just don't know. There's a lot of activity. Let me share with you and your audience this real report, not a story. Two days ago, somebody in Iran, in IRGC or wherever they are, said there are no units. Prince Reza Pahlavi ordered the creation of what he refers to as the Immortal Guard. The Immortal Guard. We call them the IGs in Iran. They're very active. So the Prince is the major opposition that... Major opposition, the point of reference, people listen to him. Two days ago, somebody said there are no units operating in Iran. So the opposition is not really organized. There's nothing happening. They say these things, they don't exist. There's no fallout in the military and so forth. So here's what the response is to that. First of all, there is fallout. If there wasn't fallout, your leader, your supreme leader would not be eliminated within a few hours of the start of the operation. Somebody inside is betraying you. IRGC. Now, come on, you may want to deny it, but the world is seeing that. How could that happen if there wasn't a fallout inside? And many other examples. Now regarding the IGs, the Immortal Guard units. A few hours ago, last night, there was a parking lot in the city of Ahwaz. In the southern Iraq. Oil-rich province of Khuzestan, Ahwaz. This parking lot, multi-level parking lot structure, but only the first floor was being utilized. The upper units, upper levels of the parking structure was used as a data center. They had computers there. And they had people there to use that facility. So they're using it as an operation. Operation of the computers and safekeeping of the computers, because, you know, if they lose that communication, they lose the data, the computing, which is part of the command control, you know, coordination through computing and systems, they were afraid it's going to get hit. So they moved it to the parking structure. That parking structure is no longer there. They cannot deny the existence of the units. Because they gave the information, are these units... They report back, they report back on what they do. This war has had some level of shock to the Strait of Hormuz getting closed. Do you think it's easy to open up the Strait of Hormuz now? Absolutely, yes. Yes. Ask me if it's possible for the Islamic Republic to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. They don't have that ability to do that. Ask me if we have the ability to, one, prevent it from being closed or opening it. We do, we do. Absolutely. So you think this is going to be a short-term issue, like in a few weeks? The Strait of Hormuz? Yes. Definitely a short-term issue. Right now, you see, you know, there is an effort to create a coalition of the willing to be able to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. And it always looks good, Sayamak, when you do things together with a group that just one country going there conducting operation. So we have the capability. Our United States Navy is so powerful, so powerful. It shows its power every day. Bijan, if the regime changes in Iran, and obviously the Iranian people hopefully will benefit, but what about other countries? Which countries are going to benefit from that? I think all countries in the region are going to benefit. Immediately, the cost of national security will go down because there'll be a normal government, a government that wants to have good relationships with all countries. Iran is mired with problems caused by the presence of Islamic Republic in it. If you remove the Islamic Republic, Iran becomes a normal country, can be very beneficial for all the countries. Do you think the Chinese Communist Party is a big loser from this losing? The biggest loser, the biggest loser. And you know what? It's not just what they lose in economic terms. They lose the trust and confidence of real Iranians. They look at them. What did you do? You vacuumed our waters, took all of our fish away. You took all of our minerals away. You sold technology to Islamic Republic to kill our children is what you did. It's the future. How can a good relationship be maintained without reconciling some issues? So China, biggest loser. What about the U.S.? How would people work with the U.S.? Is there any opportunities with Iran and U.S. in the future if this regime changes? I believe the greatest opportunity in the Middle East comes from the Abraham Accords. The Abraham Accords would change the complexity of countries in the Middle East. The hatred for Israel would go away. The Israelis are amazing people. Look at what they've done. This is a startup nation that does amazing things. Small country, fantastic minds. You have the greatest minds from universities in Iran. Just imagine if these young people get together and create partnerships to grow this economy from every... I mean, there was at a time I was told there are 98,000 villages in Iran, but later I was told that they've consolidated many of these, although the old identity is still there. But in practice, they're together and they're about 40,000 or so. I could see that grassroots economic development, just taking a look at an area and see what is the God-given asset to this geography? Because geography is fantastic. God has been generous with you and put you somewhere that's prosperous and green and lots of water, or unfortunately, Iran, which only has 10% arable land. Just 10%, 90% of the country is not arable. So creativity, projects, you know, dream projects. My dream project, which is the LNG plant for Iran. This is my most favorite because it gives the Iranian generations after generation a wallet. Because they're the number two LNG, like they have a lot of natural resources when it comes to natural gas. Natural gas is the asset that can be capitalized with an LNG plant. You know, we had the experience. We did two of them, one for Qatar, one for Peru. $3.2 billion project at the Export-Import Bank of the United States. We were able to do that. There were five individuals who had the ability to sign on the full faith and credit of the United States without exception, without limit. And I was very humbled to be one of them. So there's potential to make these deals like that between the US and Iran. Absolutely. I had a conversation with someone at a very large firm. I can't name them, but people can guess. They asked me the question, he said, what do you think the potential is for investments in Iran? And I said, great. Potential is fantastic. They said, no, give us a number. I said, I don't know. I think probably if we start with $30 billion of immediate, you know, shovel-ready projects, that would not be exaggerated of a figure. He said, that's close. We figured $50 billion that we have allocated to developments in Iran. $50 billion. I said, seriously, are you just throwing that number? Or you're serious about it? Says, look, I give you a reason to have comfort in that. We are spending $15 billion in Ukraine. So go figure. If we're putting $15 billion in Ukraine, why would you doubt us when we say we have $50 billion allocated to development in Iran? That's the potential. That's the future. You know, the most capable, capable graduates are from two or three universities in Iran. Some fantastic capabilities. The greatest asset in Iran is not oil, is its educated population. Amazing people. Amazing. I saw graduates of one university making mathematics concourse at Stanford. I don't remember the year. I think it was probably 1994, 1995. The first to fifth place, all from Iran, all from one university. The first place, the second place, the third place, the fourth, the fifth, all from one university. That's the Industrial University of Ariana, which was named after the late monarch in Iran. Amazing institution. And you know, the students, a couple of weeks ago, were chanting. They changed the name of this university to a terrorist. It was honored by them. And they said, that name is gone. We need to go back to the original name. That's what the students were shouting inside the university. Things are changing. Islamic Republic is dead. Iran is being reborn. The revival of Iran. And it's interesting that you and I are sitting here on the eve of Persian New Year. It's hard to say congratulations or to be happy because we're mourning the death of our children. We can't be that happy. But we can certainly celebrate the victory of Iranian people. The most brutal dictator is dead. And the Islamic Republic is dead. And that we celebrate. Bijan Kian, it was great to have you on. We are going to monitor what's happening in Iran closely. Good to be with you. Let us know what you think about this interview with Bijan Kian on the war with Iran. Do you think the regime will fall soon? You can always leave us a comment. I'm Siamak. This is Market Insider. We'll see you next time.