China Military Shake Up Raises Uncertainty Over Taiwan

Taiwan's Minister of National Defense Wellington Ku said on Monday that the government is closely watching recent shake-ups within China's military leadership. Ku said Taiwan will continue to monitor unusual developments within the Chinese Communist Party, the government and the military. The country will also carry out a full assessment of the situation. He added that Taiwan's military planning is based on a long-standing reality. China has never ruled out the use of force against Taiwan. On Saturday, Chinese authorities announced investigations into two senior military officials. One is Zhang Youxia, the second-in-command to China's Central Military Commission. He's the most powerful military figure under the chairman Xi Jinping. The other is Liu Zhenli, chief of the Joint Staff Department, a position roughly equivalent to the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. The following day, China's official military newspaper, the PLA Daily, published an editorial accusing the two of severely undermining the military leadership system. The piece also said they were weakening the Communist Party's grip on power. Taiwanese political commentator Wang Hao said the wording of the editorial sends a clear message. Zhang Youxia is being portrayed as a threat to the current system. It gives Beijing a justification to remove him in the name of maintaining order. Wang said that for Xi Jinping, anything he cannot fully control is unacceptable. He believes Xi would rather remove the wrong person than allow potential threats to remain. Because of this, Wang warned that uncertainty over Taiwan's security is increasing, not decreasing. Civil defense expert Lin Pingyu said that if no one in the Chinese Communist Party can say no to Xi Jinping, it could be the moment the Chinese military acts against Taiwan. Lin said technical or operational challenges have never been Xi's main concern. If a military action strengthens his power, that alone may be enough. Lin added that while it would be very difficult for China to fully take over Taiwan, it would be much easier to cause serious damage. He warned against assuming a dictator will act according to normal cost-benefit logic, saying Taiwan's existence as a democracy is in itself the greatest challenge to authoritarian China.