San Diego Real Estate Update - Carmel Valley - January 2026

Carmel Valley is starting 2026 with about half the inventory they had in November. Stick around for a couple of minutes and I'll talk about what's going on. That's right, today we are bringing you a 9-2-1-3-0 Carmel Valley real estate market update. If you've never seen this channel before, please give us a like and consider subscribing. We are circling San Diego County each and every month, bringing you the major metrics in the zip codes that you have asked to see. So if you don't see your zip code being covered, drop it in the comments and we'll get right to it. Let's jump right into what's happening in Carmel Valley right now. Looking at the big map here, we have 28 active listings. When I last spoke to you about Carmel Valley toward the end of November, it was about 55 active. So we are roughly half the active listings, which is somewhat typical for this time of year for listings' inventory to be lower, although this is quite a bit lower. Now, the number of pending sales is way lower than that. There were 27 last time we talked, and again, roughly half that number, a little less than half that number right now, and 20 sold in the last 30 days. So what does this mean? It means Carmel Valley is coming out of the gate a little slow right now in terms of demand, pending sales, but also there is not a really huge oversupply of inventory either. So there is an opportunity for the market to sort of catch up here and things to even out. If you're a seller in Carmel Valley right now, of course you wanna be mindful of all of this and get your home out there at a good price that's going to cause it to sell. And as I always mention, this zip code and many others that we cover could be sliced up into multiple updates. So if you're interested in seeing what's going on just in Pacific Highlands Ranch, Camino Del Mar, here in the city center, up here in Lansdale Estates or up at the crossings, just let us know and we'll be happy to drill down on this for you. Now let's go ahead and flip over to the longer term trends and see what's going on. When you look at median price in 92130, it has been pretty steady for the last three years, more than three years now. Looking all the way back here to January of 2022, when the median detached price was 2.46 and now it's 2014, 2,014,500. Although it's been up and down and up and down, the trend line is basically flat, if not a little on the downside. So that's pretty typical of what's been going on in San Diego County since 2022. Prices have gone up, they've gone down, they've gone up and they've gone down. However, the overall curve is flat. So looking now at the percent of original list price to final closed sale price, which is kind of a much better indicator of how hot the market is right now. If you're a seller in Carmel Valley right now, what is the market doing? Well, just for comparison, if you go back to the early spring or even late winter of 2022, you see that when interest rates were low and inventory was low and buyers were excited, they were overbidding. In fact, 13.3% overbidding in February of 2022. And then all the way down to 87.6% by November of 2022. This was a huge swing right here. And of course we all know what happened in 2022, right about the middle of the year, interest rates popped up by about three points or even more. And that just caused sales to stall out. And basically sellers that were left holding the bag had to wind up taking less. So the market was very cool here and places were selling for 87.6% of original list price. Now things rebounded. They've been up above 100% a couple of times or at least one time since 2022, although mainly hovering in the, yeah, above 100%, mainly hovering in the average range around 94, 95%, currently 93.8%. So if you're a seller in Carmel Valley right now, on average, you can expect 93.8% of your original list price when you finally close escrow. So knowing that, wouldn't it be better to get the house out there at a phenomenal price and sell for 100 plus percent of original list price rather than listing it four or five or 6% over and then chasing it down that hill, hanging onto it for two or three months, putting up with all those showings for all that time. I'm not saying give the house away, but I'm saying talk to a professional and price it right so you sell for the most money, the fastest in other words. So how fast is fast? Well, looking at market times right now, again, back here at the beginning of 22, nine days was the average market time. Looking right now, 51 days was the last reading that we got from December of 2025. So last month, 51 days was the average market time for detached houses. Now we can flip over here and check out condominiums, condos, even longer market time there, 71 days. And then looking at, well here, let's switch San Diego County as well. So we're looking at apples to apples here. So yeah, looking at market time, San Diego County average for condos, 51 days, Carmel Valley, 71 days. Looking at percent of original list price to final closed sale price, 95.7 in Carmel Valley, 96.8 in San Diego County. So performing pretty well with regard to the rest of the county. And then median sale price has been down over the past two or three months, currently sitting at 829.5 for a condo in Carmel Valley and 680 for a condo in San Diego. So that's what's going on for our first Carmel Valley market update for 2026. Again, if you like this content, give us a like, share, subscribe, comment, let us know what you think. Let us know if you want us to drill down into a smaller area, or if you're watching from somewhere else entirely, drop your zip code in the comments and we are ready to go in 2026. So if you want to talk about your real estate plans, goals, buying, selling anywhere in San Diego County in 2026, give us a call, send us a message, we'd love to talk to you. Thank you for tuning in, have a great day, and we'll see you right back here.