Expansion of Abraham Accords a 'Blocking Maneuver to China': Middle East Analyst

And joining us now to discuss is David Warser. He's a Middle East affairs analyst at the Center for Security Policy. David, thank you so much for joining us as always. Now, this is seen as a mostly symbolic move given that Kazakhstan has had diplomatic relations with Israel since 1992, but what do you make of this announcement? >> Well, first of all, it does build a little bit of momentum. I wouldn't say it's a massive amount of moment momentum, but it's good. It's good. It's the right direction in the Middle East. when anything goes the right direction, it's a good day. Uh, but I I put a little more importance to it than simply validating something that was done already in 1992. I believe that there is a block emerging. The last day that JD Vance was was in Israel uh about two weeks ago, he said something about uh hopefully Israel can expand the Abraham Accords. And with the expansion of the Abraham Accords, we form a strategic block that then begins to anchor American and Western interests that allow us to disengage from the area to some extent. And I think now when you're seeing uh Kazakhstan is an important country in terms of energy, in terms of all sorts of things and it's a big country. Uh I think that you see the block that JD Vance is talking about is expanding and it's beginning to gain real anchor. >> And digging into that, officials said Kazakhstan's participation in the Abraham Accords would enhance their bilateral trade and cooperation with Israel. That is similar to what the Wilson Center said happened to the other countries that signed on to the Abraham Accords before. Talk to us about how the Abraham Accords have boosted people-to-people relationships in private and civil sectors. >> Yeah, there's no doubt Israel is one of the hotbeds of innovation and uh industrial capability in terms of the new economies uh in terms of what makes a new economy, namely high-tech and so on and so forth. And yet in a lot of these countries, you have either pockets of of interest in that or you have money coming from other sources like oil and so forth. And they're looking to hook up with Israel so that they can get synergy to leverage the money they make with raw materials and other assets uh to essentially kick their economies up to a higher level. And on the private sector, private basis, people want to make more money with the money they have. So Israel is becoming a real sort of incubator for the whole region and Kazakhstan's a different region. It's central Asia but it's really bordering the Middle East and it it it also is the same. It's also a lot of old trade patterns. Uh Kazakhstan's a very strategic relation. It's on the Silk Road. These are sorts of largecale uh corridors that really are to our advantage if they fall to peace and and begin to establish a basis. And finally, it's a blocking maneuver to China. >> On that note, looking ahead, in your view, what other countries could we see sign on to the Abraham Accords during President Trump's second term? >> Well, Indonesia. Indonesia is the big one right now. If Indonesia joins, it's the most populous air uh Muslim country in the world. Uh it's a country Israel trusts to some extent, which means they could form a real good basis for peacekeeping forces that the Israelis trust uh to put into Gaza or elsewhere. So Indonesia, I think, is the big one, but I think Indonesia also could provide cover for the other big one, and the other big one is Saudi Arabia. Uh Saudi Arabia doesn't want to lurch into peace without the Palestinian issue moving a bit further. It doesn't want to feel alone and holding the bag. But if Indonesia joins as the largest Muslim country in the world, this kind of gives Saudi Arabia cover and could help nudge them across the finish line. And David, in terms of the Gaza Strip, we are seeing multiple reports that a number of Hamas terrorists are stuck in a tunnel network behind Israeli lines and that the Trump officials are proposing that Israel use this crisis to develop a model to have Hamas disarm. Now, Israeli has Israelis have yet to accept an entity cannot independently verify these reports, but what are your thoughts on this issue? It it's a tricky issue because uh clearly the Israelis under an Egyptian uh proposal would would allow the 200 or so terrorists to depart from the tunnels and out to where Hamas is or out of the out of the area, but they would have to give up their weapons along the way. But for Israel, this is tough because these are these are deadly killers, many of whom tortured, raped uh the hostages, killed many of them, uh held these hostages. is the Israelis want to bring them to justice. There's a lot of pressure on that. There's also the other issue, pressure in the other direction on Israel. There may be dead hostages uh in those tunnels still and uh Israel is afraid that if they just say fill the tunnels with concrete and kill the terrorists, they may lose those those dead hostages forever. So there's a lot of cross pressures, but there is a model here. True. where I think the administration's pushing it, which is um let them go to outside the area, but they give up their weapons. And that's a good model for the rest of Hamas to to give up and go into exile without their weapons and give the weapons up to an international force. >> Well, David Warser, as always, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you.