😱 WE'RE SCREWED

I want to show you what just happened here in the U.S. because we're continuing to hear from consumers all around the world that spending has abruptly stopped. But based on what we just saw right here at home, what it means is we're screwed. And Kroger has noted they've lowered prices on more than 2,000 products so far this year and is emphasizing it's private brands that tend to cost less. Many customers want more value and as a result they're buying more promotional products and more of our brand's products. They're also eating more meals at home. And so when we listen to what the political elites are telling us, they're telling us the economy is stabilized and there's a balance between inflation and the labor market. But consumers are clearly looking for value. They're looking for deals because what the political elites don't get, it's all about wages and right now wages aren't keeping pace with inflation. And this is why consumers are eating at home more. The problem is for the global economy is as consumers cut back on their spending and have less money to spend, well, it tells us where the economy is going and it's in the wrong direction. He said the company has seen a jump in shoppers buying larger pack sizes, using coupons more and buying fewer discretionary items such as snacks and adult beverages on top of the fact that again, people are biasing to eating at home versus eating out. And so one of the things that we've noted happens going into every recession is that we see that incomes relative to inflation shrink and people cut back on the discretionary side of the economy. Now, we don't see an impact from it immediately, but what starts to happen is hours start getting cut and the next thing you know, the layoffs hit. And what we're seeing here, very clear signs from consumers, not only just in the U.S., but all over the world, is we're screwed. And for the seventh consecutive quarter, Kroger's own brands grew faster than national brands. Again, consumers looking to save money in any possible way. You know, we've talked about how Walmart said they want to raise prices, but they can't. Here we see Kroger lowering prices because they know consumers cannot afford the everyday items they need. But let's turn to Canada because again, we've seen consumers from the UK, the U.S. and now from our neighbors up north, things for them are having an impact as they see that receipts for retailers have plunged 1.1% in May. That's the biggest decline in a year. And that more than reversed April's 0.3% gain. Despite outperforming expectations in the first quarter, the Canadian economy is expected to stall or contract in the second quarter as tariff front-line activity in trade and inventory faded. And this is something we expected to happen. We said that consumers, when they saw prices were going to go up and they've seen that the economy's slowing down, they're going to do everything they could to buy everything they needed now. Now, the problem is, all that spending really didn't lead to a surge in economic growth. And now what we're seeing from the UK, from the U.S., from Canada, is these economies are stalling out, they're about to roll over and head down. And again, this is a major problem that's going to not just afflict those economies, but we're seeing other parts of Europe and Asia. And all this is telling us is the trade war now looks to be the catalyst that's plunging the entire world into a recession. Domestic consumption was already weak in the first three months of the year and consumers who are concerned about their job prospects will likely to continue to curb their spending. That's exactly what we're seeing in the retail sales reports, is that, yes, consumers are afraid of losing their job. They know their hours are going to get cut because they're seeing the demand for new orders is shrinking. They know the backlogs of work are going down and those in the retail space are seeing fewer customers. And so all this is doing is back feeding across the economy. We're seeing it in the sentiment surveys. We're seeing it in the spending habits. And if it persists much longer, watch out. We're going to see everything go plunging down. If you're enjoying this video, be sure to hit that like button and join us on our community polls. There's a link down there in the description and the pinned comment. Could you imagine if you would have gotten in on the energy trade before the Mideast War? Well, our Momentum Timer Pro subscribers did. We told them back on June 10 to buy XLE on the open. That trade now at 5.35%. And you can get in on trades like this. All you have to do is grab the links in the description below. Use the coupon code for your free 30-day trial. Stay tuned to the end of the show because we have a big announcement coming for all our subscribers. But here's the real issue the political elites can't see. They worry about inflation. They talk about the labor market, but they don't understand it's all about wages. Let's take a look at real retail sales. That's inflation adjusted in blue against average weekly hours of production and non-supervisor employees in red. We can see there's a direct link. As weekly hours shrink, what happens? Demand at the retail side goes right down with it. You can see this wonderful relationship. Everyone got excited about this jump in retail sales recently, but we know it had everything to do with front-running the tariffs. Those who did have a job, they saw more hours. They were able to spend more, but the risk we're seeing now, again, in the sentiment surveys is that employees are telling us, look, demand's not there. We know we're going to see our hours get cut, and that's why Kroger said they're seeing more of their customers look at promotional items, buying in bulk, and even buying house brands as a cut out spending on the discretionary side of the economy. Again, all we're seeing is the early signs here. We're headed right into a recession. And despite all of that, again, the political elites are doing nothing. We see the Bank of Canada has paused its easing campaign, but get this. Some economists believe policy makers already arrived at the end of their easing campaign, but others still expect further reduction this year. Now, I don't know about you, but I think that these central bankers have only just begun to cut rates. And in the Fed's case, who they remain on neutral status here for about six months, I think they're going to be cutting next month, and at some point, you're going to see the entire world back at zero interest rates. Now, I want to know from you, do you think that we've ended the easing cycle, or is this only the beginning? Weigh in the comments, love to hear from you. And again, jumping on our polls, we want to get your pulse on what's going on. Owning gold is often talked about during times of economic uncertainty. While some choose to hold gold to diversify their assets, there are other options to make your gold potentially more productive. Monetary imbalance presents an opportunity to turn your idle gold into a productive, yield-bearing asset with the potential to pay you more ounces of physical gold every month. The income is earned in gold, not dollars, not IOUs, but actual physical gold deposited into the account every month. The approach allows gold owners to potentially generate yield while retaining ownership. Go to monetary-metals.com forward slash Steven to learn how you may be able to start earning a yield in physical gold and silver today. Again, that's monetary-metals.com forward slash Steven. There are risks to any investment. Risks of leasing gold include, but are not limited to, loss of gold principal from leasing to monetary metals and other counterparties, shipping, or any other time gold is in transit. If you purchase gold through monetary metals, you may pay up to 0.75% over spot price. Additionally, the price of gold may experience a substantial loss without assurance of rebounding. This is not a recommendation. Before making any investment decision, it's crucial you conduct the research, understand the terms of participation, and assess potential risks. Go to monetary-metals.com forward slash Steven to learn how you may be able to start earning a yield in physical gold and silver today. Again, that's monetary-metals.com forward slash Steven. Because let's talk about the real issue that's going to impact all of these central bankers and why they're behind the curve has everything to do with the labor market. Let's look at the unemployment rate in red against the federal funds rate in blue. And you can see the central banks start cutting rates as the unemployment rate tends to rise. But the problem is it has no impact on the labor market. And next thing you know, as we see more people hit the unemployment line, next thing you know, the central bankers are slashing their way to zero. Now, we just heard from Powell and Company. They think the unemployment rate is going to peak around 4.5%. And if they're lucky, that's going to be true. But we can't say the Fed got this cycle wrong. They said that inflation was going to head higher due to the tariff. So far, that hasn't happened. Now, they're saying the labor market isn't going to unwind, but it's going to happen. Because again, as consumers spend less on discretionary side of the economy, you see hours get cut. And if hours get cut enough, jobs are next. And recent confidence indicators are suggesting an improvement in both business and consumer sentiment. While it does not signal a strong rebound in activity, in fact, it suggests we may have seen the worst. And that's highly unlikely based on what we're seeing from consumer habits. Yes, consumers are saying sentiment went up. And likely, it has more to do with the stock market than anything, or the fact that consumer side things are going to be much worse than they are. And they're somewhat surprised by it. Let's take a look at the relationship between the sentiment survey and the equity markets. As we overlay, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey in blue gets a Nasdaq 100 in red. And you can see it is about net worth and income. As we look at the relationship here, you see when the market goes down, you will note that sentiment is dropping with it. We saw a huge plunge in sentiment that has rebounded in the last preliminary reading, partially because many people did think the market was going to come down. But there could be another factor. It could have everything to do with hours. And we talk about the relationship between surveys and finances. Now let's overlay average weekly hours of production and non-supervisory employees in red. And you can see a very strong relationship between that and the University of Michigan survey. So what happened again is we saw the sentiment survey drop, that perhaps the issue was workers may have thought that they were going to see a big cut in hours, and they didn't see it. Well, at least not yet. We know it's coming. And it said my annual report to Congress, the Fed noted that the labor demand has gradually eased over the past few years. A variety of measures suggest that the labor market has moved into balance is now less tight than before the pandemic. Well, that's very obvious that it's less tight before the pandemic. But the problem here is they think there's a balance. They're trying to bring inflation down while at the same time, they're trying to put people on the unemployment line. But what they can't see is really going on in the economy. And why we talked about Kroger at the beginning of the show is because we're seeing this impact everyone at all income levels. We're seeing everybody looking to trade down, to look for deals, to buy house brands, to spend less, to cut back on eating out. And so you start to understand what's going on here. The economy isn't in balance. It may appear to be for the moment. But I think the Fed's got this completely wrong. I think the unemployment rate isn't going to peak at four and a half percent. I think it's going to spiral up a whole lot higher. The report reiterated the message from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials that monetary policy is well-positioned for policymakers to wait for more clarity on the economic outlook. But that's what they've said in every cycle, that they're waiting to see things happen. And yet they get it wrong every single time. I think this time they're going to be completely off base because they're waiting for inflation to happen that's not happening. And the reason it isn't is because demand's going down. Demand's going down because wage growth is slowing. And that means we're going to hit an inflection point very soon. And the evidence is clear as we look at the unemployment rate in blue. Now we're late against average weekly hours of production of non-supervisor employees. We can go back to every cycle. We can see there is a point where hours get cut enough that employers start laying people off. And I believe when we see the number of hours worked roll over and head lower, it's going to send the unemployment rate surging higher. And yet Fed Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said, for me, I look more to the fall saying, look, unlike Waller said he wants to cut in July. I don't think so. She says by then we'll have quite a bit more information. Well, Mary, I think you're going to have so much information. You're going to be slashing rates way ahead of this. And businesses are telling me that's what they're going to look for, for some resolution. But businesses aren't looking out that far right now because there's so much uncertainty in the global economy. The trade war isn't over. There was so much front running of demand and inventory build up that what we're finding out is even with discounts, consumers aren't spending. She recalled the recent inflation data, which came in unexpectedly tame for three straight months. Really good news, but cautioned against moving too quickly. I wouldn't be preemptive. I look to balance the two goals we have, referring to the Fed's employment and inflation mandate. The problem is the Fed thinks there's a relationship here. Well, but there isn't, at least not a very good one. They can't even see what's going on. Because if you look back at every last major cycle, what you find out is inflation goes up. The Fed gets worried about inflation. And then next thing you know, the unemployment rate goes higher. So the Fed trying not to make the same mistakes as past cycles where inflation surges higher, doesn't seem to realize it's about paychecks and paychecks are shrinking. And we're hearing again from retailers. And now we're seeing it from consumers as they cut spending that the issue here is people don't have that much money to spend anymore. And they're cutting back. And as they cut back, demand for labor is going with it. And one of the big issues facing the U.S. economy right now is that U.S. companies remain largely in the dark on when they'll receive crucial magnets from China. While there's been a trickle of required permits, many American firms that need Chinese minerals are still waiting on Beijing's approval for shipments. The ladies are holding an array of American industries hostage. And what that could mean is we've already heard from Ford. We're seeing this from other companies that if Tempura had to shut down production, we could face even more widespread shutdowns when that happens. Again, hours are going to get cut, jobs are going to get lost. And that means less spending in the U.S. economy. The risk here is for the London deal to fall apart because rare earths is a very granular issue and mistakes can be made. And if we don't get them, what we're facing is the U.S. economy could be facing mass unemployment. Here's the evidence is now we overlay the unemployment rate with industrial production in red. And you can see if there's any reason production slows down, could be due to a lack of demand, could be due to a lack of supply of that case of rare earths. What you see industrial production going down, the unemployment rate going up. And right now, the U.S. economy is facing two major problems, a slowdown in demand and a slowdown in supply of rare earths. Of course, we already know that last month, China only shipped us one tenth of what we normally get. As supply runs out, it means production is going to get shut down. At the same time, workers are already struggling with inflation as their paychecks shrink. It means more paychecks are shrinking, less money for the real economy. And now you can see very clearly why we're screwed. But just because the economy is heading down doesn't mean your trading account has to go with it. We got a major update. This is coming soon to all of our subscriptions. We've been harnessing the power of advanced AI technology and we're going to be launching a super swing trading report that's going to have every major swing trading strategy implemented in it. We're even using AI to optimize our existing reports. Now, if you're a subscriber, you're going to get some of these trades at absolutely no additional cost. So you got to jump in on this now. But how did we nail that trade on the energy sector? Well, we watched the markets and the technical indicators because what we do every day with our Momentum Timer Pro report is we look at the technical indicators, we aggregate them together. And when they come out of oversold territory, it starts to flag on our report. But when we see a rising trend with that, it shows up right on our hot list each and every day. Now you get all the momentum signals across abroad, equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets. You get them on a one day, one month, three month, and six month window. But even if you don't need that, you still get the daily report. You get all the signals. I review the trades and give you my notes and my opinions on the best trades. You get risk control levels, a full tracking of all of our open trades in return, a weekly update. And in addition to getting trades from our new report, you also are going to get a free. That's right. Grab the links in the description below. Use those coupon codes for your free 30 day trial. And with that, I'm Steve Van Meter. Thanks for watching. Thanks for being fans. Bye now.