Stalk the Stock: Expert Market Advice & Investing Insights

Well, like every day, we will discuss about the markets in the next half a month, especially the broader markets. In the broader markets, we can see that there is a very sharp sell-off, whether it is indices or any sectoral indices. There is no positivity anywhere. So, we will look at the charts and discuss how the setups are being made, which sectors are having weakness, and whether this correction is a resumption of the downtrend that we are seeing. After that, we will look at the sectoral charts and finally, we will look at the stock specific queries. If you have your own queries that you want to check on the charts, then you can post them in our comment section. So, let's start with the markets. In the markets, we can see that there is a lot of selling pressure today. Mainly, we are seeing that there is a lot of talk of a new virus from China. There is a lot of news based on the first case in India. Secondly, we have seen FIIs selling consistently in the last few months. And there is a reason for FIIs selling, where we have seen selling pressure in the markets consistently. If we look at the international queues, we have discussed a lot about the rising dollar index in this webinar. When the dollar index goes up, it is not good for the emerging markets. Because when the dollar has such a trend, the rest of our local currency has weakness. And it is not good for the economy. So, ultimately, it impacts the markets. There are a lot of correlations because of which we are seeing selling pressure in the market. So, we will see whether FIIs mainly cover the shorts, until the figures of FIIs covering the shorts do not come. Now, their ratio is around 17%. Historically, we have seen that whenever it comes in the range of 10-15%, the market makes a short run bottom. Now, we have come to 13-17, 13-19. On Friday, the figures of the shorts have come again when it is around 17%. So, again, the data of short covering is not coming. So, there are not many positive setups on data. Secondly, if you look at the markets technically, 200 EMA has been a very important support. Because when there was a correction in the markets last time, 200 EMA was a support for Nifty. Now, we are again around 23,700 EMA. So, it will be very important to see whether it holds or not. Although today, Bank Nifty has broken its 200 EMA support. So, we are seeing that the selling pressure is continuously in the broader markets. So, I will just share my screen with you so that I can show you the sector and broader market indices charts as well. So, this is the Nifty 50 chart. You can see that we have made this range. Nifty is in the range where there was a pullback move last week. There is no follow-up buying right now. So, in this range, any directional move will come in the index. After that, we will see any major directional. This is the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 Index. Now, we see Mid-Cap 100 Index for Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Index. Because this tells us how trading setups are happening in the stock-specific approach in the broader markets. And today, we will see that there is a clear underperformance in the Mid-Cap Index. There is a lot of selling pressure. The base was made around 50% retracement last week. From there, there was a pullback move from 3-4 trading sessions. But the gains in the last 3 days were wiped out in just one session. So, this level is 56500. This is the support of the consolidation low. If that breaks, then we can see the next level of down-move in the broader markets. So, you must keep an eye on the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 Index at the level of 56500. Because the selling pressure has increased by 4 days. In just one day, the selling pressure has increased. So, it is definitely not a good sign. Daily RSI is neutral here. Recently, there was a positive cross-over in the up-move. But if there is a negative cross-over again, then the momentum will be negative again. So, for now, there is no negative cross-over. And 56500 is an important support. So, this level will definitely keep an eye on the broader markets. 56500. And similarly, if we look at the small-cap index, the Nifty small-cap index has more or less the same structure. So, daily RSI is neutral here. The up-move that came in 3-4 days, it gave up in just one day. And the small-cap index also tracks a little broadly. So, there is a support level of 18400-18500 to watch out for. Market breadth. The main indication we get from the market breadth is what happens there. The market breadth is clearly negative in today's trading session. Even if you look at Friday's session, there was a slight negative change in the market in Friday's session. And today, we see that follow-up selling. So, if we look at a little biasness, I would say it is more of a neutral biasness, where we feel that these are important lows. If these important lows break, then we will see a deeper correction in the next leg of the downtrend. But if these lows do not break, then you will see a consolidation phase. Now, a lot of events are lined up in the month. In January, as you know, the quarterly results will start coming. Then Trump, who has won the election recently, I think he will take over in January. And then on the first day of the next month, we will also see the Union Budget coming. So, there are a lot of events. And when there are events, then definitely the volatility based on events is also high. So, be prepared. This month won't be a very easy month. You won't see markets in a unidirectional move or a single directional move. But the volatility will continue. So, now coming on to the sectors specifically. If we look at the sectors, Bank Nifty Index has shown some negative signs today. The red moving average you are seeing is the 200-day EMH. 200-day exponential moving average. Last week, it gave a low support and bounced back. Then it couldn't cross the black moving average and the blue moving average. And it gave a red watch breakdown. So, Bank Nifty Index, clearly, if we look at the closing below 200 EMH, which is currently around 50,500, then definitely these are bad signs for the Bank Nifty Index. Daily RSI is also negative for the Bank Nifty Index. Private sector banks have more or less similar chart success. But so far, private banks have not broken that low. But the turnover success is not becoming very positive. Last week, there was a good up move in the Auto Index. But this move was a pullback move because there was a divergence here. We are seeing that the Nifty Auto Index, the price made a new low. But the RSI made a higher low below. So, when the price made a new low, the RSI made a higher low, there was a positive divergence and there was a pullback move on the oversold. Now, what exactly happened in this pullback move? Swing high, this black moving average resistance for the Nifty Auto Index, for all the players, from 24,200 to 24,300 range. And that level has not surpassed yet. So, there was a reaction, a positive reaction. We have seen a positive reaction on the number of auto sales on 1st. There is no follow-up buying. There will be a follow-up move if it surpasses the level of 24,200. Otherwise, after this pullback move, we will see some correction in the auto space. So, more consolidation or range signs. After price-wise correction, now it is time-wise corrective phase for the auto space. Consumer Durables, in the last week, there was a good chart success. The breakout of the falling trend line has come in the Consumer Durables Index. The daily RSI is positive here. So, in the Consumer Durables stocks, you will see a relatively low fall in the market. And then we have the Nifty FMCG Index. We had a discussion on the FMCG Index earlier in this show. After a correction, it is due for a pullback move. Because the RSI is positive here, there is a higher bottom. But until these resistances do not surpass, it is not in the uptrend. So, FMCG Index, there was a pullback move. Currently, the resistance has been added. It is in the range of 58,000-58,500. Until it does not come out, FMCG is not looking so fast. This will also remain in the FMCG Index for more consolidation or sideways trend. Nifty Infrastructure Index, there is a structure of lower top and lower bottom. If Friday's high falls, then there will be a pullback move in some infrastructure stocks. Otherwise, the chart success here is not so constructive. IT Index, now in IT, we will see that some big companies will start with results. IT stocks like DCS. So, we know that when the result season remains, IT stocks, especially heavyweight, give a lot of reaction to the results. So, it will be important to see this week. Currently, the setup in IT Index is such that Nifty IT Index is a resistance. A corrective phase has been given by Nifty IT Index. After the corrective phase, the momentum that you are seeing from the RSI setup below, that positive process has not come yet. The index has no doubt taken support around the black moving average. This is the EMA of 89 days. The index has definitely taken support around this. But the momentum, you will see in the RSI, there is still a positive change below. So, if a positive process comes from here and it holds the black index, then we will expect an uptrend again in IT. So, relatively, there are better players from other indexes. But here, there is no sign of a positive process coming. If a positive process comes, then we will see an outperformance again in IT. Metal stocks, we have been giving a negative view on metals for the last 2-3 weeks. And my main reason in this was the rising dollar index. I also share charts of the dollar index with you. Because whenever the dollar index goes up, there is an inverse correlation between the dollar index and metals. In the dollar index, there is a correction in the momentum, i.e. metals. And that is why metal stocks also underperform. Now, the consolidation of the last 2 years is around 108. I will just zoom this stock, this index. So, look at this chart. This resistance was around 108 in the last 2 years whenever this index used to come there. In November 2022, there was a correction from the same level. In October 2023, there was a correction of around 108-107.50. In April 2024, there was a correction of around 107. Recently, in November, there was a correction of 108. And now, this has surpassed. You can see that the higher top, higher bottom structure is sustained around 108. So, increasing the dollar index means weakness for metals. And not only for metals, in fact, there is no good sign for emerging markets. Because when the dollar spends, as I said in the beginning, the currency is weak. And we are clearly seeing that impact on USD, INR. So, as long as the momentum in the dollar index remains, you will see underperformance in metals. Lower top, lower bottom, lower top, lower bottom, the structure is still in the metal space. RSI is also negative. So, look at the short side opportunity in metals because there are no signs of momentum here. Oil and gas had a good move last week, a fullback move. Let me just draw a trend line here so that we can see. Yes, I drew a trend line by joining low to low. Similarly, if I draw a recent trend line by joining high to high, you can see a triangle-like pattern in oil and gas. So, this is the triangle where it formed. Now, if this support breaks, then the downtrend resumes. If the resistance breaks, then there is a reversal. So, we will wait for the breakout. So, pharma. Yes, pharma had such a space off late in the month of December where we saw a good speed when there was a correction in the markets. So, recently, in the last two trading sessions, there is a correction here too. But more or less, the trend index is positive. Because in the correction, no moving average support has broken yet. RSI has also not shown a negative growth so far. So, maybe a buy-and-dip strategy selective pharma. In fact, if you look at the weekly charts, the weekly RSI has recently turned positive. So, pharma, I think, and the monthly RSI are also positive. So, pharma, I think, is a space where you can see buying opportunities. If you want to see an outperformance in the falling market, then it can be from a pharmaceutical space. For the past two days, this is also negative. The index was falling on Friday, but this is just a pullback move. There is a top, there is a reversal. There are no such signs in pharma. So, you can look for pharma names. Nifty PSE index. A small pullback move has come from the previous low in the PSE index recently. But it could not cross the moving average resistance. And the low of that day will be important here too. PSU banks are already an underperformer. PSU banks have not been running for a long time. And the recent pullback move that came last week, we saw that some selective private banks were running. But there is no participation in PSU banks. RSI momentum is still negative. So, negativity will continue in PSU banks too. Realty is also looking bad. Because the realty index did not participate in the pullback move last week. It stayed sideways for three days and broke support again today. It is perhaps approaching its red moving average 200 EMA again. So, I think we have covered all the sectoral indices here. And in all the sectoral indices, only two indexes are standing out. One is Nifty Pharma Index, where you can find buying opportunities in this pullback move. Relatively well, consumer durables or IT. IT, I think, more or less, as we said, will move on the basis of results. Otherwise, relatively well, consumer durables can do relatively well. But Pharma should be in focus, I would say, in such markets where there is more uncertainty and more volatility. Let's also look at the chart of India Weeks. If we keep looking, India Weeks is rising. India Weeks is above 10% today. But don't be surprised. Because when we talked about so many events, Trump's office, you know, coming to the office, then later the results season starts, the budget is coming ahead. So, before the events, of course, volatility will be there. And in January, you know seasonally, January is usually considered a very volatile month. So, volatility will definitely be expected in this month. Right, so I have covered all my view on the markets. Broader markets indices, I hope, are clear. Whatever I have shown you, the charts are all clear. And according to the view, I would say, you should still be a little cautious in the markets. The dip in Pharma in the last two days, look for buying opportunities in Pharma. If you want to give contract risk on the buy side, wait for the signs of reversal in the other broader markets. After that, look for trading opportunities there again. Now, coming on to stock specific queries, a lot of queries are posted. I will take some YouTube queries, 4 or 5, then I will take some queries from our Stockholm channel as well. The more profit you book in Agis Logistics, the more it goes up. The result is extraordinary. With respect to results, we see the price momentum. The price momentum is very positive. On that day, the price up move was good, the volumes were good. Even today, the price up move is good, so the volumes are good. We saw in the stock, I think we talked about it last time, that there is no volume based selling in the dips. And the stock is not breaking its moving average support. Currently, the trend is positive. If you have booked a partial profit, then don't regret it. After all, you have booked with a profit. In such a market, that is also a good thing. And you can ride the trend on the remaining positions. Devyani, your international level has reached. Book a profit or hold it. I remember 61.8% retracement. Yes, we talked about the retracement level, it has been held here. But here we can see that the whole price volume action is still bullish. So I would say that it should be held for now. Because there is no bearish price volume action. Looking at the market condition, if you want to book a partial profit, then book a partial profit. And ride the trend on the remaining positions. TADA consumer 940 call option, Muthuk Finance 2200 put option. TADA consumer if we see. Yes, TADA consumer 940 call option. So in call options, daily RSI is positive in TADA consumer. And the momentum is not negative in hourly as well. So you can hold 915-920. This support range is coming for TADA consumer. For your existing long positions. So as of now, it is positive. Muthuk Finance put options. So recently, Muthuk Finance has shown a good uptrend. But there is a possibility of a pullback move. Again, moving averages are around 2108-2110. So if it comes around that, then you can book a profit for your positions. Persistent pre-fall for a long time. Both are in profit of 8% and 94% respectively. Persistent, again, trend is positive, but momentum is losing. You can see this. This could be just a correction within an uptrend. I would say that if I look at the weekly charts, in the last 4 weeks, the level of support has come down to 6200. So below 6200, if that breaks, then you will exit the profit booker from your position. Then again, after the results, or after the results, it will be analyzed again. Pre-call, the trend is positive right now. RSI has been corrected, but the support has not broken price-wise. So pre-call, I would suggest, because there is a good hold performance in such a market. So it can hold. Level-wise, 530-525. This is a support range of 520. So keep a stop-loss of 520. There is a level of 520, so book a profit in your position and then exit there. VDL 110 shares at 480. Look at Vedanta's daily chart structures. It is not so positive on metals. I have already told you, Vinay, that the metal structure will not be so positive in the near term. If you have a long-term view, then you can see that keep a stop-loss below 430-429. If that breaks, then exit from there in VDL. SJS is not on positive metals in the short term. SJS daily structures, weekly structures, momentum is negative, so there can be a pullback move in the stock. But it could be just a correction within an uptrend. So if you have a long-term view, then good. Don't do average. In both the stocks, I would say don't suggest average. But if you have a long-term view, then you can hold the existing positions at current levels. Nestle reversal. Nestle FEC, Nestle. Nestle India's chart structures, no signs of reversals yet. There is a pullback move. There is no pullback with large volumes. Weekly RSI has not turned yet. There is support around 2115-2120, Vimalji. But there are no signs of reversal yet. We have covered Sandeepji at the start. I will take some Stockholm queries. I will take that in the chat section. I will take that. Kalyan, Raj, FSL. So if you see, Kalyan Jewelers. Kalyan Jewelers tried to break out last week. But there is no follow-up move yet. And generally, if there is selling pressure from the same level, then the stock can be corrected. So I would suggest that if you are looking to make new positions, then the high of last week is 795.40. If it crosses, then make it. If you have made the existing positions, then there is a stop-loss for you below 749. There are two options. Either keep a stop-loss below 749. Otherwise, for now, trim some positions here. And whenever there is a break-out above 796, then re-enter there again. If the positions are light, then there are chances of re-entering again. But if the positions get stuck at higher levels and the trend of the stock changes, with such resistance, then it can take a lot of time. So I would suggest that it should be lightened up a bit. As soon as it crosses 796, then you try to re-enter again. That should be a better strategy. Praj Industries. Overall, there has been a good outperformance recently. But for now, there are signs of a corrective phase. So there can be a pullback move within the uptrend. Support 779, 765. These are the two supports in Praj Industries where there can be a pullback move. FSL is relatively better in the IT space. FSL's trend is still positive. Last week, the stock gave a break-out of consolidation. It is still holding it. RSI is positive on daily charges and weekly as well. And as you can see, the recent correction in IT stocks has not been corrected by FSL. So when there are such things where a sector is getting corrected but there is no correction in a particular stock, then it is a sign of strength. So FSL's trend is still positive. So I would suggest that it can hold. Saregama MRPL. So four sectors of Saregama. Let us see Saregama. In the last two trading sessions, there were good volumes in the stock. And when the price upmoved with good volumes, it means there is fresh buying interest in the stock. Whenever there is strength in the upmove in the market, then you can expect good performance in the stock. A move of up to 640 can be seen in Saregama. Support is in the range of 495-500 right now. Support is a little far because there has already been a move in two days. But that is the support where it was intact. So the trend is positive. MRPL. You can see consistently that from the month of July. No, not from the month of July. I think this stock is consistently from the month of February. The corrective phase started from the month of February, Lower top, lower bottom structures are still continued. Then later in the month of September, we saw 200 EMA, this red moving average break in the stock. And there is still no sign of such a reversal uptrend. There is a pullback move coming in between because there is a high beta name in the oversold layer. If it comes in the market, then there is a sign of a pullback move again. But weekly RSI is still not positive. So MRPL is still looking negative. So do not average. There are some pullback moves. Swapnil ji, try to lighten up there. But at these levels, I would suggest that wait for in between pullback moves where you can lighten up at higher levels. But don't average over here. Larsen and Toubro, good support around 3550. RSI is still positive. So hold on your mid to long term positions. Nothing much to worry. Aishwarya Motors, I think, should hold long positions here. In the recent market, in the auto stocks, there has been a correction in the last 3 months. In October, November, December. You can see Mahindra and Mahindra and Aishwarya Motors. These are the only 2 such stocks in the auto space where we have not seen a price-wise correction but a time-wise correction. And when the auto sales numbers came, we saw that Mahindra and Mahindra and Aishwarya Motors, both have good numbers. So whenever there are dips in this stock, you will see buying interest again. So I would suggest Aishwarya Motors and M&M. Both are stocks that were outperforming in the falling market, which is a good sign. So you should continue to hold on your long positions. Indian stock market affects virus. So Anil ji, yes, the news flow is the same. But I don't think one should get too much panic on the basis of this news. Because what happens a lot is we know that when COVID came for the first time, when the virus of COVID came for the first time, there was a lot of bad impact on the markets. But when its second phase came, then you saw that its impact was not so bad. Even if you take a war, when there was a war before, the news of war used to come that one country has waged war on another country. So the market was very significantly corrected. Then recently, as this thing kept happening repeatedly, whether it was the news of the increase in the war in Russia, or the news of the war in Iran, after that the market did not react to it. So as the market's reaction is initially worse, when something like this comes, it is not expected. So this time too, no one expected that as soon as COVID or any virus comes back, there will be an initial reaction. But don't expect that as we saw the downtrend or correction of the markets the same correction, the same downtrend will come again. On the basis of this news, if something else happens, I don't know, on the basis of this news, I don't think you should expect that. So don't worry much. So don't panic too much on this news. There will be an initial reaction. Then the markets would settle down over there. Which sectors are likely to grow this year? So Lalit ji, as of now, more positive buyers, as of now, are on the pharma. We had seen earlier also, if overall outperformance in the falling market was not done by pharma, then pharma can do well. Rest, let's see, as time goes by, there will be some clarity as to where the outperformance is. LTI, MindTree, ITI and PFC, LTI, MindTree, if you see on the daily charts, LTI, MindTree, no, there are not that many positive structures. Recently, there was a breakout, but not a follow-up. It has completely failed with the gap down and after that, it is consistently selling pressure. So, ITI, MindTree is weak. Weekly RSI is negative. Monthly, it is a little sideways. It is a little sideways to negative bias. LTI, MindTree is there. ITI and PFC, ITI, it is a volatile stock. For the past 2 days, it is very significant. In fact, not for the past 2 days, I won't suggest fresh because for fresh buying, I don't have a close stock loss to give. In just 2 days, 40% has gone, so there is no close stock loss. So, I won't recommend fresh, but if there are any existing positions, you can hold. PFC, Power Finance Corporation, it is a consolidation, but historically, we have seen around 420, if you see from May 2024, whenever the stock comes in 400-420, whether it is in May or in June or recently in October, 400-420, this range is for support range stock. So, price-wise, downside, I think, should be limited in PFC. If, in case, it is found in the range again, there is a good opportunity for buying. Any opportunity in energy or IT sector to consider current market? So, energy sector, we discussed 4 sectors. More oversold, so it came in the bounce. Energy sector, I would say, wait. IT sector, considering current market, if you are current market scenario in IT, I would say, looking at market scenario, there is a lot of interest in pharma. In pharma, I think, relative outperform will be there. In IT, our momentum reading indicator will be positive. So, last 2 queries I am taking from Stocomo for today, Maruti and NTPC, which are 2 posted. So, Maruti's chart, such as, Maruti's numbers were good, and the numbers were definitely very good, positive reaction with good volumes. So, what will happen What happens is, many times, the names of large cap, which are well-known in have given good returns for so many they are beaten down. After correction comes, positive news starts, then fresh buying interest comes in. And Maruti has already from 13,000 to 10,800. So, buy on dips strategy is here. From breakout level, 11,400 to 11,300 comes around So, you will get reasonable stop-loss. If there are positions, then hold them and make fresh positions on dips. NTPC green, NTPC green daily chart success, so, I have limited historical data. So, much to give a view. I can only give support 124. If support is intact, then it will be sideways. If 124 breaks, then correction may come. But there are not many data points in this. So, I don't have a complete view on this. Adani ports, Adani ports daily chart success Adani stocks technical fundamentals news based moves right. So, difficult analysis daily RSI technical momentum recent pullback green moving average medium support resistance so, positive structure charts Adani ports I have covered NTPC Green. You can keep stocks below 24. Rest, I will say that if you give a more fundamental view, it will be better on NTPC Green. Pitagore Wagon is not such a positive structure. Daily RSI is negative. In the last week's pullback move, the stock did not participate. So when there is no participation in the pullback move, the stock can underperform a little more. Previous swing low support in Pitagore Wagon is 1048. Yes, 1048. Remember that important support. Structures are not showing positive momentum. Tanla platform. Tanla is also a big underperformer where the structure of lower top and lower bottom has been in the stock for a long time. In the last week, it has come up with good volumes. But in such structures, I always see if there is a follow-up move or not. Many times, positive news flows come. We have seen a lot of such stocks in downtrend stocks that positive news flows come. So there is a pullback move of 1-2 days. But if there is no follow-up buying, then it either goes sideways or downtrends again. Looking at the last week's upmove of 1-2 days, I won't make a concrete view that the stock has gone bottom out. For now, I would wait. If there is a follow-up move, if there are consistently good volumes in the stock, then you will see this in the stock for buying. Otherwise, Nitin Ji is not in an uptrend right now because of just one top. Right, so I have covered all the queries. Please let me stop over here since it's already 12 o'clock. I hope this webinar is useful to you. Please give us your feedback. If you like it, please share it with your friends and family so that they can also benefit from this webinar. Right, thank you very much. That's it for today from this webinar. I will meet you again tomorrow at the same time. 11.30 to 12.00. Till then, goodbye. Have a very nice day.