When Economic Collapse Becomes the Only Path to Change

hi I'm d Sean welcome to diging to China where we explore China in depth to review unique perspectives when discussing the possibility of the ccp's downfall many people instinctively dismissed idea is unrealistic this reaction is understandable because most of us tend to think about the regime change through the lens of an armed Uprising the conventional belief is that whether it's the fall of the dynasty or the collapse of a dictatorship the decisive Factor must be the emergence of an armed Force beyond the dictator's control one that ultimately overthrows the regime this Armed Force could stand from Desperate people rising in Rebellion or from foreign intervention such as the United States but if we stick to this mindset the ccp's downfall seems like nothing more than a distant fantasy for one an armed Rebellion is nearly impossible today setting aside the difficulty of acquiring weapons modern scientific advancements have largely eliminate the threat of mass starvation as long as people can still afford to eat F would be willing to risk their lives in an armed Revolution as for foreign intervention China now possess nuclear weapons which serves as a strong deterrent unless China directly threatens US Territory m military intervention to overthrow the CCP is highly unlikely given this the CCP may seem invincible so why am I still discussing its potential downfall because in today's world military force is no longer the primary means of toppling a dictatorship instead economic interests play the decisive role modern dictatorships don't collapse because of armed Uprising they fall due to complex economic pressures in other words power is no longer dictated by the barrel of a gun but by control over Financial Resources these forces involve international relations bureaucratic Elites and the general public so how do these Dynamics work let's take South Korea as an example South Korea's Democratic reforms were largely driven by the June democracy movement of 1987 millions of South Korean took to the streets in protest against the dictator Chand du Juan under Moun pressure Tran was ultimately forced to step down Paving the way for democratic reform but could he have suppressed the protest with military force like the chanan square Crackdown absolutely even at the moment of his resignation he still had full control of the military so why didn't he do it the answer lies in how South Korea democracy movement affected different sectors of society the protest drew around 8.3 million participants with some demonstrations exceeding 1 million people after the June protest South Korea faced a three months of widespread labor strikes bringing business operations to a halt the sheer scale of these demonstrations paraly paralyzed Industries and sent shock waves through the economy foreign investors alarmed by the unrest began pulling their money out with within days stock prices of major South Korean companies Samsung Hyundai LG plummeted at the same time the United States and South Korea's largest Ally and trading partner exerted the pressure on Tren Doan Declassified the documents later revealed that Washington warned the Chen that if he resorted to military suppression the US would withdraw its troops from South Korea but the most critical Factor was Financial pressure the US also hinted that International financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank would cut off funding if Trend cracked down on protesters this was a serious threat before 1987 South Korea had received around1 billion doar in low interest loans from these institutions accounting for 10% of GDP at the time losing this financial support would have been catastrophic faced with this reality Trump and his inner circle had two options crack down violently and the risk and economic collapse or step down and preserve Financial stability at the first glance many might assume he would choose repression after all stepping down meant losing everything while holding on to power left the door open to Reviving The Economy later and in fact TR initially leaned toward suppression he was a staunch hardliner much like d sha pin and believed in crushing descent through Force however he didn't rule alone his power rested on a military faction known as the Hanah which had helped him seize control and served as the backbone of his dictatorship surprisingly most Hanah members opposed A violent Crackdown and in favor the Democratic reforms but not because they suddenly embraced the Democracy their motivation was entirely Financial under trans version of Reform and opening up South korean's economy flourished but it followed a state capitalist model similar to China's the country's largest business the chos were deeply entangled with the bureaucratic Elite Hanah members either Secret L held stakes in these companies all received enormous bribes from them for instance trans second in command Ro taiu received bribes and corporate shares worth 284 billion one over $300 million at the time from major chos like Samsung Hyundai dahon and LG to put this into perspective South korean's GDP in the 1980s was about 100 billion meaning Rose bribes accounted for 3/10 per of the entire economy if we apply this ratio to China today it would be equivalent to more than $50 billion or 400 billion yen at the time Samsung's annual net profit was roughly 100 billion one rose bribes alone were worth three years of Samson's profit with so much at stake Hanah members had no interest in seeing the economy collapse if Trump instead on violent suppression businesses would fail foreign investment would dry up and their wealth would be wiped out even Beyond military Elite opposition to repression extended to trans ruling Democratic Justice party the party relied on Cheo donation for funding salaries and operational expenses if the economy crumbled even lower level officials would be left struggling ultimately TR one had a little choice if he chose suppression the economy would collapse his supporters would abandon him and his dictatorship would still be at risk by stepping down he lost power but ensured that South korean's economy remained stable preserving the wealth of his inner circle on the surface a state capitalist system seems straightforward officials control Enterprises business owners must obey authoritarian leaders and whichever company the dictator favors will Thrive While others struggle these businesses in turn exploit the people funing massive profits to bureaucrats however these same officials are also in a way held hostage by the very Enterprises they control and Trend onean South korean's business and bureaucratic Elites became deeply intertwined sharing both prosperity and a potential downfall so when Mass protest erupted the government split into two factions hardliners led by Trent himself and the reformist led by ro Tai Wu unlike Trump the reformists opposed a brutal Crackdown they calculated that even if democracy took hold and anti-corruption efforts followed public anger would focus on TR alone if he was ousted they could protect their wealth and remain in power so why not compromise beyond the self-preservation some ambitious figures even accelerated the trans downfall Ro Tai wo was the prime example he didn't support Democratic reforms out of principles he had a grander plan one so bold that calling to just a plan would be an understatement from Rose's perspective democratization wasn't a threat it was an opportunity even under a democratic system his party still held a Prestige and with one person one vote he believed he could win elections something he later proved True by backing reforms he could replace Trum and Elevate himself from second in command to the highest office winning an election would not only protect his wealth but also cement his legacy as a national leader and a so-called hero of democracy this new founder Prestige he thought would Shield him from any future re ultimately the reformist letter by ro convinced Trent to issue the June 29th declaration ple pledging Democratic elections and the reforms in exchange for immunity ironically despite all of Ro's Ambitions he gained nothing in the end he never became the Democratic leader he envisioned nor the national hero he aspired to be instead both he and the Tron were later purged and imprisoned South Korea's transition to democracy is just one example of how dictatorships fall and it offers insight into how China's own democratization might unfold overthrowing a dictatorship requires Mass protest but initial goal shouldn't be to directly defeat the military instead protests sometimes even violent ones should aim to create a lose lose scenario inflicting damage on the regime while also sustaining enough losses to force concessions the key is to pressure the ruling Elite making it clear that if they refuse to step down the entire system will collapse with them at the same time reformers must strategically appeal to the conscience of some officials exploit the Ambitions of others and leverage their desire to protect their own wealth to drive change modern democratic movements have in many ways come to resemble organized labor strikes their fundamental logic is similar just as workers strike against their employers protesters in state capitalist system like China and South Korea effectively strike against entire bureaucratic establishment while demonstrations may seem directed at individual companies these businesses are merely extensions of the dictatorship targeting them ultimately pressures the regime itself so how close is China to such a transition while this model may sound simple it requires Key conditions to succeed the most crucial factor in a state capitalist system like China is that a dictator and economic growth must become fundamentally in incompatible in other words the people must reach a breaking point where they believe as long as you remain in power we will never Prosper the ruling parties contined the rule must be synonymous with economic collapse neither the 10 Square protest in 1989 nor the white paper movement reaches this point at the first glance the 1989 tanaman Square protest resembled South Korea's June 1987 democracy movement both involved the mass demonstrations and the government splits between reformist and hardliners however back then China's economy was not yet intertwined with the Communist party's survival the country had an even completed a basic industrialization once the party embraced Market reforms the economy took off after 1989 China's bureaucratic Elite reaped enormous benefits from Rapid economic growth and many ordinary citizens also gained wealth from the reform era similarly the white paper movement was primarily about ending the zero covid policy to restore economic stability while shiin pin's Authority was tied to that policy it wasn't critical enough that he couldn't abandon it so once protest erupted he quickly scrapped the zero Co then the movement lost momentum this is why past protests in China despite their SES have never overthrown the Communist party it's not because the protesters lacked a weapon it's because Society had not yet reached the point where continued party rule meant guaranteed economic failure but when will that moment arrive I'd say soon China is approaching a critical juncture the key question is whether it can transition its economic model put simply can the Communist Party shift from a carbon based economy to a silicon based one for decades especially since the reform era China's growth has relied on what I called a human resource extraction economy at it's core this model is built on the exploitation of human labor it has fueled Industries like real estate Bubbles and land driven fiscal policies but the foundation has always been cheap labor this labor intensive system has powered the rapid growth which is why I refer to it as a carbon based economy however China has now hit the middle income track to break through and reach developed country status it can no longer rely on cheap labor instead it must pivot toward technology driven Industries like semiconductors and artificial intelligence this is what I called the Silicon based economy making this transition is far more difficult than the initial reform era many authoritarian states have successfully industrialized through human resource extraction Taiwan and the changqin core South Korea and the P Tren key and trento Juan and others but no dictatorship has ever successfully Advanced a Hightech economy authoritarian regimes seem inheritant incompatible with technological innovation transitioning to a silicon based economy and a dictatorship is a challenge unlike any China has faced before Shi Jinping is fully aware of this dilemma over the years he has experimented with different strategies to push this transition first with common prosperity and now with his great Leap Forward in electric vehicles some efforts have shown promise deep seek in the China's EV industry are notable developments but whether these Technologies can drive real economic growth remains uncertain despite Rising EV sales China's economy continues to struggle with deflation and worsening unemployment the Communist party now faces a predict similar to the Soviet Union the USSR achieved technological breakthrough throughs and even competed with the US in the Space Race but these advancements were state driven and failed to translate into widespread economic growth the Soviet economy stagnated despite its technological achievements it never became a true silicon based economy Shi Jinping is racing against time over the past two years China's economy has faced a sharp decline leading to a surge in chaotic issues and the rising public discontent but how long does she have to keep making mistakes and trying to fix them in my view it could be as short as 3 to four years or as long as 7 to8 it all depends on how effective she policies prove to be how much economic pressure the Us and other Western countries can apply and of course how the Chinese public perceives the situation even though the Chinese Communist party and the she are struggling to manage economy she can still rely on propaganda to maintain control by manipulating The Narrative around the US China relations and presenting an overly positive view of life in China he can shift the blame for economic troubles onto external enemies like the us or other foreign forces this high-intensity propaganda came by time delaying the moment when people realize that China's economic growth and the ccps continue the rule are fundamentally incompatible but in the end propaganda only postpones inevitable it can't solve the problem the real solution lies in transition to a silicon based economy but I believe she is unlikely to achieve that this is my take on China's potential democratization and my Outlook on the future if you hold a traditional view that as long as the CCP controls some military its rule will be un shakable then you might think the CCP will never collapse and that Chinese people only have two choices immigrate or live under a totalitarian regime but if you understand that economic development is the key to the ccp's survival then you will see that the real test for the party's longevity lies in the coming years if Shi Jinping can develop a new economic model that propels China to Greater Heights then in the short term the ccp's rule will and solid and the part's collapse won't be on the horizon if that happens people like me will have to accept Our Fate just like a previous generations of democracy activists engaging in a long perhaps lifelong struggle against the CCP but if she fails to spark a real economic breakthrough in the next few years if economic Decline and the deflation continue for two or three more years and China Falls deeper into the middle- inome Trap the situation will become eily similar to South Korea struggles in the past at that point even though propaganda will still be strong it won't be enough to sustain the regime people will quickly realize that the ccp's contined the rule is at odds with any real economic progress in this scenario a large scale protest could bring the CCP down in an instant by then it won't just be ordinary citizen protesting business owners corporate Elites and even Communist party members themselves could join in the true enemy will become clear shiin ping and a small circle of top figures Business Leaders and bureaucrats will understand that continuing under she or any CCP dictatorship only benefits she himself everyone else loses at that point these groups will actively oppose she when that happens whether or not the CCP still controls the military will no longer matter in the best case scenario if the party leadership is smart enough to follow taiwan's example and initiate reforms China might not even need a mass protest to change direction instead internal political struggles could lead to shei outing and the replacement setting China on a path toward a political reform but honestly I'm not very optimistic about this the CCP leadership has plenty of self-serving opportunist who might want to take she out but true Visionary reformers are in short supply thank you so much for watching if you find this video helpful please like it drop a comment below and hit the Subscribe button right here that really helps YouTube suggest my videos to others I'll be back with more content soon until then be well