While Nvidia stock has risen 87% in the past year, here are 3 Quantum companies benefiting from Quantum Computing Breakthroughs: IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Teradyne (NASDAQ: TER), and Quantinuum (NASDAQ: HON).
These three companies represent the three main segments of the emerging Quantum Computing industry: Quantum Computer Design, Semiconductor testing and manufacturing, and Quantum Software. Of these companies, I currently own a position in IonQ, but I'm actively considering investing in the other three. My thesis is that these smaller quantum companies that have not yet run up in price that same way AI stocks like Nvidia or Microsoft have puts them at an advantage as the technology matures and begins to reshape the economy over the coming years, while Honeywell (Quantinuum's owning company) appears to be the potentially cheapest way to invest directly in the quantum market without betting on an a particular quantum technology.
So if you had bought $5,000 in NVIDIA 10 years ago,
it would be worth around $230,000 today.
But while we've seen a historic rise
in that and other AI stocks,
if investors only focus on the already big AI stocks,
you could miss the bigger opportunities
that are just getting started in a new tech area,
quantum computing stocks.
So I found three quantum computing stocks
that are small enough to still have room to grow
while actually showing some pretty solid reasons
behind why they could double or triple in price
while AI stocks like NVIDIA take the spotlight.
As we go, I'll also talk about how each stock covers
one of the three biggest product areas of quantum computing.
Because when it comes to picking great stocks,
it's important that we understand a company's products
and not just their numbers.
Massive growth happens when a company has the perfect product
in a quickly growing market
before that market appears, like NVIDIA.
Which is why I'll also be sharing
my five years of experience
advising Fortune 500 companies on emerging technologies,
including quantum, to give my opinion
of each company's products and not just their stock price.
So our first stock works right at the bottom
of the quantum stack,
designing the physical quantum computers
that are driving this whole market.
This is important to investors
because one of the big reasons NVIDIA stock price
has risen so rapidly is because their GPUs
have become the backbone of AI training and data processing.
But as we push the limits
of what classical computing can handle,
the next frontier is quantum computing.
A market expected to grow
at a staggering 32% compounded per year
and potentially reaching $170 billion by 2024.
So IonQ is a small under the radar company
that I recently bought shares in
that is quietly leading the market
in building quantum computers
using their precise trapped ion technology.
And this company is working to unlock billions of dollars
by building a new type of quantum computer.
So we can think of a classical computer
as being made up of a bunch of Lego blocks
representing bits.
Each block or bit is like a switch, a one or a zero,
the basic building blocks of a computer.
But quantum computers introduce a new magical Lego block
called a qubit, which can be a one, a zero,
or both at the same time.
This new type of block is really useful
for solving certain kinds of problems.
They can run simulations, billions, trillions,
or even septillions of times faster
than classical computers.
And so problems that we consider impossible today
suddenly become possible
with a powerful enough quantum computer.
This will revolutionize pharmaceuticals
with protein folding,
solve huge problems in logistics and shipping,
and give their owner the ability
to hack any computer on earth in an instant.
Companies should start investing in quantum computing now.
Quantum computing has the potential
to revolutionize logistics.
The encryption that's shielding Bitcoin
could be compromised by a quantum computer.
Could hack into financial transactions, medical records.
But wait, wait, wait, wait,
we're getting ahead of ourselves.
It's easy to get excited
about the potential of quantum computers,
but as investors,
we need to look at where the value is getting created.
So there are two big problems
that companies are racing to solve in the quantum space.
And the company that solves them stands to become the leader
in what will one day be a trillion dollar industry.
So those two problems are precision and scaling.
So let's start with precision
since that's where IonQ stands out the most.
Quantum computers are incredibly sensitive.
At tiny scales, things move really unpredictably,
making control a big problem.
It's like trying to stack Lego blocks on a trampoline.
There's just so much bouncing
that it's hard to keep things together for long.
You can partly fix this
by just cooling the computers down
to super cold temperatures to make them more stable.
Kind of like damping how much the trampoline bounces.
But as you make the computers more and more powerful,
kind of like building a bigger and bigger Lego tower
on the trampoline,
the more likely something is to break.
So how can we make computers precise enough to do math
and solve big complicated problems
with all this randomness happening?
Well, IonQ has taken a unique approach
by using trapped IonQ bits,
which are more stable and reliable than the competition.
They built a system that uses atoms locked in place
with systems of lasers to control them.
Kind of like super gluing your pieces of Legos together
on your trampoline.
That makes their quantum computers much better
at solving tricky problems without introducing errors,
especially in industries like healthcare,
defense, and finance,
which is why they're getting so much interest
in those areas.
But these trapped IonQ bits also help them
with the second problem in quantum, scalability.
So I've worked as an engineer for a while
and I have seen so many prototypes
that claim they're about to change the world.
Most never do.
And that's because it's easy to solve a problem on paper,
but it's way harder when a product has to stand up
to real world situations.
So with quantum computers,
it's not enough to have a couple qubits
that can do some neat tricks.
You need to have a path to scale
to a theoretically infinite number of qubits.
Kind of like how classical computers
grew into a multi-trillion dollar industry.
And IonQ's design actually sets them up
pretty well for this.
Their trapped Ion technology is designed to scale
from one qubit up to hundreds by locking each new atom
into a chain in a straight line.
They've so far shown that this can work up to 79 qubits,
but the stability of this platform
should be able to handle a lot more.
And as they scale up the size of these lines,
which they call chains,
since they don't use physical wires,
they can communicate between qubits
much faster than traditional computers.
And this scaling of their systems seems to be on track.
With the company announcing a huge technical milestone
in early 2024,
when they achieved 35 algorithmic qubits
a year ahead of schedule.
These algorithmic qubits measure
not just the physical number of atoms,
but how they can be combined in a real world computer.
So you hear all this about quantum computers,
but sometimes it can be hard to tell
what do all these technical achievements really mean.
So with early tech like this,
ultimately I think one thing matters.
Are people willing to give them money
for the technology today?
So IonQ is still what I would call
a research and development company.
They do have some revenue,
which has actually doubled in the past year,
but they aren't yet profitable.
And they are burning through cash
as they develop their latest IonQ Fort computer.
But unlike a lot of small quantum companies,
IonQ does have a real product
that we can actually test right now.
They've begun partnering with the major cloud providers
to begin allowing developers to try out their systems,
building their own tools
on top of well-known software development kits
to make it easier for programmers to get started.
So I actually tested it out
and I thought it was pretty cool
how you could basically program stuff today
that can run on an IonQ system.
Now the stock is very volatile.
It's worth less than $10 billion
and it's up over 250% in the past year.
So it is a more risky stock,
but I felt comfortable enough
to take a small position in the company.
But sometimes the biggest money in a new industry
isn't made by the most public companies.
So over the past five years,
while every small tech company
has slapped AI onto their name,
there's been a whole class of companies that sat back
and quietly made a fortune,
building the hardware for testing
and manufacturing the chips, driving the AI boom.
And they're gearing up to play a similar role in quantum.
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But now let's move on to the second quantum stock on our list
that is quietly making a fortune,
building the hardware for testing
and manufacturing the chips of the future.
So if quantum computers are like the engines of the future,
Teradyne is the mechanic that ensures
everything runs smoothly.
Teradyne doesn't build quantum computers themselves.
They make the testing and automation systems
that ensure quantum hardware like processors and chips
work reliably and can scale to meet growing demand.
And they do this in two key ways, testing and automation.
So imagine you're designing
the world's most advanced orchestra
where every musician needs to play in perfect harmony.
Well, quantum processors are kind of like the musicians.
They need to work together with incredible precision
to create something incredible.
But if even one musician is out of tune,
it ruins the entire performance.
And that's where Teradyne comes in.
You can think of Teradyne as the conductor
with the sharpest ears,
testing every single musician before the concert begins.
Their job is to make sure
that every part of the processor is flawless.
There's no missed notes and there's no mistakes
so that the final product performs perfectly.
Only with Teradyne, the testing is all automatic.
This market of automated test equipment
is a $10 billion per year market,
but it's expected to more than double in size by 2032.
And it's not this huge pool of companies.
Teradyne is one of the two biggest companies in the space
along with Advantest.
But quantum processors aren't quite the same
as traditional ones that might be used for AI, for example.
And they come with some unique challenges.
For one, it's still a developing technology
where a lot of companies are still experimenting
with what shapes and sizes end up working best.
And they are also far more sensitive to noise and defects.
Teradyne specializes in testing processors
with the extreme level of precision needed
for quantum chips,
something that not every semiconductor tester can do.
And that's what makes me really excited about Teradyne
is they have this ability
to tune all kinds of these quantum orchestras
so that whichever type of processor
ultimately ends up winning,
there's a good chance that Teradyne's business will benefit.
But testing quantum processors
is only one piece of the puzzle.
To keep up with the growing demand for quantum computers,
factories need to be able to assemble chips faster
and in much larger quantities.
One way to fix this, robots.
Teradyne develops robotic systems
to automate production lines,
speeding up the process to make chips
while maintaining quality.
Now experts think the quantum computing market
could 10X in size over the next decade,
growing by 30% per year to reach $18 billion by 2030.
So the work of building all these chips
will likely fall to whichever companies
already have the equipment and the expertise in place
to start making those chips quickly.
The stock price is relatively flat over the past few years
and the stock trades at a fairly reasonable valuation
for their industry.
So it might not take too much to lift the stock's price
over the next five to 10 years.
Now I'll address the comments now
that this isn't technically a quantum stock.
I mean, they don't hype themselves up with AI or quantum
or really any other specific use case.
Teradyne instead is just laser focused
on providing the best products
that they can for their customers.
But I'm betting that quantum
will become a long-term boost for this company.
And the stock is included in the Defiant Quantum ETF,
which is a basket of stocks
for investing in quantum technologies.
But as important as building the computers is,
software is what will ultimately make them run.
So this next stock is bridging the gap
between the raw power of quantum computers
and the practical solutions that businesses need.
So this stock's exciting
because they operate at the highest level
across three very different areas of quantum.
And even though this is technically a private company,
I'll show you how you can still get in
on this game-changing stock.
So starting with software,
Quantinuum's claim to fame
is developing the TCAT tool set.
This is like a toolbox that software developers can use
to program on quantum computers
without needing to be experts in quantum mechanics.
So fair warning,
I struggled to come up with a great analogy here,
but software devs,
let me know how this one went in the comments.
So if a quantum computer is like an off-road car
designed to explore difficult areas,
Quantinuum's TCAT software is like the steering wheel
that lets you control what the car is doing.
It takes incredibly difficult quantum problems
that humans can code,
like optimizing global supply chains
or simulating molecules,
and maps out the most efficient path
for quantum computers to solve them.
Now, they aren't the only company
working on toolkits like this.
IBM has their own that I talked about in my last video,
but what's unique about Quantinuum's approach
is they're trying to make their TCAT software
completely hardware agnostic.
It works with quantum computers
from companies like IBM, IonQ, or Rigetti.
They make it so that you can take their steering wheel
and use it with any car,
regardless of the maker model,
which is super useful since you're not locked in
to using only one quantum company's computers
with your code.
Quantinuum has also recently launched
their LAMBEC toolkit,
which lets you interact with quantum computers
via natural language,
like telling chat GPT what you want the computer to do.
And Kermit, which is a software system
for quantum error mitigation,
which we talked about before,
is a key problem to making quantum computers more useful.
This company is really pushing out
a lot of quantum software tools,
which is why over 500,000 developers
have downloaded TCAT so far.
And while it doesn't have the same reach as IBM's tools yet,
that is still pretty impressive for a small company
that doesn't own their own cloud platform
like the big hyperscalers do.
But even more important than the software
is how Quantinium fits into the overall ecosystem as a whole.
So while many companies in the quantum space
are racing to grab market share with their own hardware,
they just focus on their open source quantum toolkits.
And then TCAT works with everything,
ranging from IBM's superconducting qubits
to IonQ's trapped ion technology.
But even more importantly,
they're also actively collaborating
with every industry leader that they can.
They've partnered with Infineon Technologies
to develop better parts for quantum computers
called ion traps.
They've worked with Microsoft
for decreasing error rates on logical qubits.
Heck, IBM went further
and they just invested directly in Quantinium
because they are technically a private company
and they don't have the same pressure
to beat the competition and make profits in the short term.
And because of this,
because Quantinium is not tied to any single technology
for building quantum computers,
superconducting qubits, trapped ion technology,
they get to skip the riskiest part
of this still developing market.
So whichever technology wins out,
Quantinium just gets to grow with their partners
at the overall rate of the quantum market,
which is a growth rate that I would be very happy with.
But the biggest reason that I like Quantinium
isn't the software they're making
or even the benefits they're bringing to the ecosystem,
it's the super unique position the company has
to take advantage of new improvements in the quantum space.
So Quantinium was originally created
by merging Honeywell Quantum Solutions
with a company called Cambridge Quantum,
ultimately forming the world's
largest standalone quantum company
and one that has a ton of cash.
The company has since received backing
from some pretty heavy hitters,
including JP Morgan Chase, Mitsui, and Amgen.
But the most important investor to outside investors
was last year when Honeywell poured
an additional $300 million into the company,
giving it a $5 billion valuation at the time.
And that is more than recent quantum high flyers,
D-Wave, Rigetti, and IonQ combined at the time.
Now this also means that Honeywell
now owns the majority of the company, around 54%.
And it means Quantinium can benefit
from Honeywell's deep expertise
in high precision industrial equipment,
their super deep pockets for investing
into research and development in quantum,
and maybe most usefully, Honeywell's existing relationships
and trusts with all the big industries.
They are one of the biggest players
in aerospace, energy, healthcare, and logistics,
all of which are industries
that Quantinium would love to enter.
And those existing contracts could provide
a huge advantage to Quantinium and their partners
as the technology matures.
Now, since Quantinium isn't a public company,
we can't invest in the stock directly,
but we can estimate its value
based on comparable public companies,
which would put its value around $20 billion today.
So considering Honeywell owns 54% of the company
and Honeywell's value is just under $150,
that means Quantinium makes up around 7 1⁄2%
of Honeywell's value.
So if we buy Honeywell stock,
we get 7.5% exposure to Quantinium as well.
Now, this obviously isn't a pure quantum play,
like iOnChew, for example,
but considering Honeywell is rated
as one of the cheapest stocks in the industrial space,
any big breakthroughs from Quantinium
could result in a significant price rise
for Honeywell as well.
Without exposing investors to the same risk
as investing directly in a smaller quantum stock.
But fun fact, one of the biggest use cases for quantum
is actually going to be creating even better AI models.
So check out this video for the top four AI stocks
that are better than Nvidia.