San Diego Real Estate Update - Mira Mesa - November 2024

The number of properties on the market in Mira Mesa is dropping as pending sales jump up and new listings have flattened out. Hang out for the next few minutes and I will explain what I see going on. Today we are bringing you a Mira Mesa 92126 real estate market update. If you're new to this channel, please give us a like and subscribe so you don't miss any of these updates. We are all over the county every single month with lots of different zip code updates for you and adding more all the time as you drop your special requests into the comments. And if you have questions about buying or selling a home anywhere in San Diego County, send us a message or give us a call because we know your zip code and we know the numbers. So speaking of numbers, let's get right into those for Mira Mesa. Looking at what's going on right now, 57 active properties, which is down a bit from last month when we were looking, but particularly interesting now is with these 57 active properties, 49 currently pending, and that has brought the active to pending ratio much closer to even than it was and has been for the past couple of months. So this is actually good news for sellers in Mira Mesa, not great news for buyers because we're heading into that supply shortage range again, which I know a lot of buyers were hoping we would continue to see inventory build and pending sales stay the same, therefore dropping prices and median price, which we'll get to in a few minutes in Mira Mesa has dropped over the last 30 to 45 days. However, this is looking a lot now like 2022 when we had a similar situation with inventory building, pending sales, stagnant prices starting to fall off. And then as we headed into the middle of the fourth quarter of 2022, it started to do what it's doing now, which is to even out. And then the buyers kept coming and the sellers stayed on the sidelines and prices took off again. Will 2025 do the same thing? Unknown at this time, and unless you have a crystal ball or a time machine, it can't really be known a hundred percent. Now, 34 properties have sold in the last 30 days, which is why I'm saying there's been a significant jump in pendings because 34 closed in the last 30 days. You currently have almost 50 pending. So that's a pretty significant jump when you look at everything. Now, I did have, we had a viewer who wanted to talk about how the three routes development, which is right about in here between Camino Santa Fe and Camino Ruiz on the southwestern edge of Mira Mesa, how that development was impacting or would impact sale prices in this part of Mira Mesa or all of Mira Mesa. And when we're working, we're working on coming up with a coherent statement on that. Although I will tell you that developers, builders, particularly Lennar, they do not report sale prices in the MLS. So the data does not show up like resale data and they release the information to the county tax assessor in batches. Basically what builders are doing is not hiding things per se, but they don't necessarily want new incoming buyers to see what existing residents in earlier phases have already paid because they like to create the image or the perception of scarcity. And it may be scarce. It may not be a false perception, but you can't really tell because you're not really getting accurate or even flawed sales data. There really isn't any available sales data without doing a lot of digging into county records right now. And how does this impact home prices of existing resale? Very, very difficult to tell again, unless you have that time machine and you can go back and not have the three routes development and see what happens and then go back and have it and see what happened and then compare the two. So it's a very sort of difficult thing to say what is new development doing to and what will it do to home prices in the area. In general, I will say that anytime you've got a new development and especially when a lot of that new development are condos or detached condos, those homes are not like the existing homes that have driveways and yards, larger lots, things like that. In many cases, in my opinion, what and what I've seen happen is existing neighborhoods tend to hold their value or go up in value because the new properties are all attached homes, no yards, that kind of stuff. So as we move along in San Diego County and as we see more condos being built, homes with lots and yards, fences, more traditional homes become more desirable, more scarce, so therefore more valuable. So that's one way of looking at it. Although again, really impossible to tell exactly what that specific development is doing specifically to home prices in the adjacent neighborhood. In general, property is somewhat scarce at the moment and that's kind of forcing prices to remain relatively high. Anyway, I've rambled on enough about that for now. Let's have a look at the longer term trends here. Looking at Mira Mesa going back to January of 2021, it is a median price neighborhood in San Diego County. You can see the median has rolled right along with the San Diego County median, although in the last 30 days or so, the median in Mira Mesa has dropped pretty significantly. Although again, we're only looking at 30 or 40 data points here, so it's not being smoothed the way that the whole county data set is. So you do notice over time, you see a lot of these peaks and valleys. So we'll see what happens next month. I would expect to see this jump back up. Right now, the median in Mira Mesa is 9.50. In September, it was 11.20, 1.120 million. Now, when we look at percent of original list price to final closed sale price, like the rest of the county, we are looking at the spring of 2022 as the peak of buyer exuberance and excitement. In March of 2022, buyers were paying an average of 13.3% over asking in Mira Mesa and right now, 97.3. See, as we've seen inventory grow June, July, August, we've seen and then right here in August is when inventory started to really pop up. August was 102.8%, September 98.4, and now 97.3. So this is definitely something to pay attention to if you're a seller. As that inventory comes up and pending sales stay the same or decline, much, much more difficult to get that bidding war going and you wind up with 97.3% of your sale price versus 102.8. And not a lot of distance between those two numbers numerically, but when you are talking about a million dollar home, it's quite a bit of money. So market times, as you might expect, are up in Mira Mesa one day longer on average, San Diego County. Although as again, as this inventory starts to balance out, we should see that come down again. So that is what's currently happening in Mira Mesa. If you like this content, please remember, like, share, subscribe, comment, let us know where you're watching from, and we'll get your zip code going very, very soon. With that, I will say have a very happy Thanksgiving. Have a great weekend. We'll be back next week with more great real estate information. We'll be live on YouTube Friday evening to just talk briefly about the real estate market, give you a little recap and a look ahead at what's happening in San Diego County this weekend. So tune in for that if you feel like it, and we will definitely see you next week. Have a great day. Talk to you soon.