Will Trump Stop the Russia - Ukraine War in 24 Hours?

When a bullet whistles past Mr. Trump's ear, he then stands up, raises his fist, and shouts Fight! three times. At that moment, those with faith believe that Mr. Trump is the chosen one. From the time of the campaign to his victory in this election, Mr. Trump has felt like Guan Yu, a legendary Chinese general, overcoming five passes and slaying six generals, navigating through lawsuits, defamation, and compensations. This election result has pushed human emotions to the extreme. Mr. Trump swept seven battleground states, the Senate is in Republican hands, and it is highly likely that the House of Representatives will also be controlled by Republicans, with 27 out of 50 state governors being Republican Party members. Mr. Trump has all the favorable timing, advantageous conditions, and harmonious support. But this also places a great deal of pressure on Mr. Trump. In the near future, he will address an international issue that has been ongoing for nearly three years, the Russia-Ukraine war. For Ukraine to truly achieve peace, it requires the nod from the United States. So what will the U.S. do to end the war, provide full assistance to help Ukraine drive Russia out of its territory, or exchange land for peace along with certain conditions? But before entering the commentary section, we invite our esteemed audience to like and subscribe to Decoding China to stay updated with the most unique analyses. Sweeping seven battleground states, a sign of the next major political shift. Trump's extraordinary victory this time is clearly reflected in the swing states. He has won five out of seven swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, as well as North Carolina and Georgia. In the remaining two states, Nevada and Arizona, Trump is leading by four to six percent, making it difficult for Harris to catch up. Therefore, the likelihood that all seven swing states belong to Trump is very, very high. What does this mean? It is important to note that in the history of U.S. elections, only a few presidents have won all the swing states. Specifically, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Ronald Reagan in 1984 achieved this feat. Historically, if a presidential candidate can win all the swing states, it usually indicates a significant era change. In 1936, it was the year of economic recovery after the Great Depression, and Americans placed their hopes in Roosevelt. In 1972, Nixon won all the swing states because Americans were weary of the Vietnam War. In 1984, Reagan won all the swing states during the recovery period following the tensions of the Cold War. We know that the sign of a regime change is when public sentiment shifts. Therefore, if Trump wins all the swing states in 2024, it means that public sentiment is changing. Based on the vote percentages and the number of electoral votes, previous examples have shown that the winners achieved overwhelming victories. In the 1984 election, Reagan won 49 out of 50 states with 58.8 percent of the vote, surpassing his opponent by 18 percentage points and setting a record for the highest number of electoral votes with a total of 525, a landslide victory. In 1936, Roosevelt secured 60.8 percent of the popular vote, surpassing his opponent by 24 percentage points and winning 523 electoral votes. This time, Trump may not create as large a margin as Reagan in both the popular vote and electoral votes, but he still achieves two extraordinary accomplishments. First, Trump is very likely to win all the swing states. Second, the voter turnout this year is very high. In 1972, Nixon, despite his significant victory, had a voter turnout of only 55.2 percent. In 1984, Reagan also won by a large margin, but the voter turnout was only 53.3 percent. In 2020, this rate rose to 66.7 percent, or some estimate 66.8 percent, meaning that two thirds of eligible voters participated in the election, the highest level since the 20th century. The voter turnout rate for 2024 is still unknown, but it is expected to be historically high. In an election with such high enthusiasm, Trump winning all the swing states, or at least the majority of them, also signifies a major change of the era, a historical shift is approaching, and Trump is at an advantage by possessing the support from heaven, earth, and humanity. Trump has the support of heaven, earth, and humanity. Currently, looking at the global landscape, we witness the strong rise of the right wing. Europe is facing waves of immigration and cheap Chinese goods, with the European automotive industry suffering significant losses, prompting a shift toward the right-wing political spectrum. Israel is conducting eastern offensives to suppress the north, causing Iran and their formidable forces to be terrified. The United States has also experienced a period under the left wing, with issues like illegal immigration and rising prices. After enduring hardships, people around the world are now awakening. Mr. Trump is a right-wing figure, so his victory this time is a result of favorable timing. Regarding advantageous conditions, we know that the United States has the strongest economy in the world. Any changes in their domestic economic policies will ripple outward and become international policies. Whether Trump wants to change the energy program, control inflation, alter tax policies, tariffs, or other industrial policies in the U.S., these changes will have international impacts. The prosperity of the U.S. signifies the prosperity of the world, unless some countries deliberately isolate themselves from the U.S. due to political opposition. Conversely, the decline of the U.S. signifies the decline of the world, regardless of whether countries separate from the U.S. The prosperity of the U.S. does not necessarily make the world prosperous, but the decay of the U.S. will certainly lead to the decay of the world. Additionally, politically, the U.S. acts as an arbitrator for international issues, leads technological advancements, and sets the living trends for humanity. Therefore, as long as Mr. Trump is favored by the heavens and supported by the people, he has the potential to lead global transformation. The U.S. leads in these areas, and since these fields are related to geographical boundaries, Mr. Trump possesses the advantageous conditions. What about harmonious support? Harmonious support is a topic worth analyzing in depth. The Republican Party controls the Senate with 52 seats, which is more than half. The results for the House of Representatives are still pending. The House has a total of 435 seats, and a majority requires 218 seats. The Republican Party has already won 206 seats, while the Democratic Party has 191 seats, making it highly likely that the Republican Party will secure the majority in the House. If this happens, the result will be similar to the 2016 election, where the Republican Party controlled both the White House and both chambers of Congress. Overall, although the result is similar to that of 2016, there is a very fundamental difference. In 2017, when Trump first took office, he faced two major weaknesses. First, he was politically inexperienced, lacking his own team. As a result, important positions such as National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and Secretary of State changed frequently. These positions were primarily filled based on nominations from major Republican leaders like McConnell, leading to the appointment of many individuals whom Trump was dissatisfied with, creating numerous conflicts and wasting a lot of time. However, by 2024, these unfavorable factors have largely been eliminated. After many years, Trump has gained a clear understanding of personnel management, knowing who can cooperate and who can be trusted, which will help him maintain government efficiency and stability from the outset of his term. In 2017, Trump also faced a second unfavorable factor. Strong factions within the Republican Party were not unified. Two of his important partners, House Speaker Paul Ryan and Vice President Mike Pence, were not aligned with him, not to mention other major party leaders like Jeb Bush and Senate Republican Leader McConnell, who publicly conflicted with Trump multiple times. However, these unfavorable factors have largely been removed by Trump now. Trump chose the young J.D. Vance as his vice president to train the next generation of Republican leadership, ensuring that Trump's policies will continue. Therefore, in terms of harmonious support, Trump has essentially met the requirements. When discussing harmonious support, it is also necessary to mention an important individual supporting Trump, Elon Musk. Often, I even think that this election is not just a collaboration between Trump and Vance, but also between Trump and Elon Musk. Since Elon Musk was not born in the US, he does not have the opportunity to run for the American presidency. Therefore, Musk's political prospects nominally are limited, but his actual influence is immense. In this election, Elon Musk has built his reputation and in the future, he will be a thought and commercial leader of the US, as well as a super famous individual. Influential figures like Musk in American politics will certainly play important roles. Currently, Elon Musk is very likely to become part of Trump's Pioneer Inspection Committee, taking on a role responsible for cutting government wasteful spending. On a more optimistic note, Musk could even become an important advisor to Trump. The collaboration between Musk and Trump has another significant advantage. Both come from similar backgrounds as entrepreneurs, not as experienced politicians. Therefore, this allows Musk to assist Trump significantly in the future. Adding the fact that in the Supreme Court, the number of right-wing justices also holds a majority of 6 out of 9. With these advantages, it can be said that Trump has now achieved harmonious support in many important areas. The support of heaven, earth, and humanity has stood on Trump's side for the first time. Of course, having the right timing, advantageous conditions, and harmonious support this time, does not mean that the left-wing faction has lost its strength. In reality, in the fields of education, media, culture, and the bureaucratic system, the left-wing still holds many stronger advantages. The left-wing still has the power to push forward many of the issues they want. Although Trump has achieved the key conditions to fulfill his ambitions, he still has to overcome many obstacles. Moreover, this time both chambers of Congress and the White House belong to the Republican Party. If Trump performs poorly, he will have no further reasons to justify himself, which also creates another form of pressure. Things Trump Needs To Do From now until January 20, 2025, Mr. Trump will undoubtedly have much preparation to undertake. He will meet with many people. If there are no unforeseen incidents, there are a few tasks that will be his top priorities. Firstly, restoring order at the border and preventing illegal immigration. This is both a responsibility of the Department of Homeland Security and the Border Patrol Forces, as well as a diplomatic mission. To address this issue at its root, cooperation is needed from the countries from which illegal immigrants originate, as well as coordination with national governments through immigration enforcement teams. Additionally, handling and deporting immigrants with serious criminal backgrounds also requires the cooperation of other governments. Next, Trump needs to exploit domestic oil and gas resources to reduce energy prices. This has always been Trump's commitment to controlling and fleeing inflation. He believes that controlling energy prices can effectively reduce the inflation rate, improve public safety and order, and combat fentanyl. It is important to clarify the issue of public safety and order. Feeling safe is a very important part of the quality of life, yet it is very fragile and easily disrupted. If a car window is broken by an immigrant, you will not feel safe. Enhancing social security is the responsibility of state governments. Fortunately, the Republican Party has also won 27 out of 50 state governorships, so cooperation between Trump and state governments will be quite smooth. This covers domestic issues, but what about foreign affairs? How will Trump resolve the Ukraine issue? Currently, regarding international policy, the Middle East no longer requires Mr. Trump's extensive attention. The Biden administration tends to constrain Israel, but Israel has steadfastly countered the pressures from the Democratic administration, accomplishing many tasks on its own. Now Trump doesn't need to particularly focus on them, he just needs to allow Israel to continue its path. Therefore, the only issue that the international community is highly concerned about is the Russia-Ukraine war. What will Trump do? Trump tends to follow the principle of land for peace. However, when he talks about land for peace, it can easily be misconstrued as Trump agreeing with Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory. The final outcome isn't necessarily like that, but in reality, swiftly reaching a ceasefire agreement and halting violence to prevent further loss of lives is the top priority. Regarding land issues, the usual approach after a ceasefire is for both parties to withdraw from the current de facto controlled areas, creating a non-military buffer zone. It might be possible to demand Russia to withdraw further. As for land ownership and the will of the people, it requires multiple rounds of prolonged negotiations. Ultimately, land ownership must be redrawn, but during the negotiation process, how to exchange land for peace, whether the land will be managed internationally, whether to hold a referendum under international supervision or to directly annex it to either Russia or Ukraine, negotiations must commence to determine these aspects. Historically, peace processes in the Middle East have progressed step by step by exchanging land, similar to how Israel relinquished the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt, Jordan gave up East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and subsequently, phased peace processes in the Middle East took place. However, when land becomes a condition for negotiations, it might be misunderstood as a policy favorable to Putin. In reality, this is not the case. The most appropriate historical reference is the conflict between the Soviet Union and Finland during the winter of 1939. From the winter of 1939 to 1940, the Soviet Union and Finland fought fiercely, and eventually, Finland ceded a portion of its territory. The Soviet Union then ceased to harass Finland, and during and after World War II, Finland maintained its independence. Why was this outcome achieved? Finland ceded territory but secured peace through incredibly courageous fighting. Every inch of Finnish land became a grinding millstone for the Russian army. Therefore, no one considered Finland to have compromised. The issue was that Finland was a small country with very limited options. They negotiated to achieve the best possible peace within their constraints. Returning to the situation in Ukraine, even if Putin manages to seize one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, can he be considered the victor? The invading army has been nearly exhausted, and every piece of land is soaked in blood. Next time, even if money is offered, Putin wouldn't dare to attack. The current situation is that the eastern Ukraine front has reached a deadlock, turning into an endless grinding millstone. Attacks on the front lines have become difficult, making it extremely hard for either side to achieve a decisive breakthrough. This war is being fought by the Ukrainian people, but the key to peace lies in the hands of the Americans. Without US support, this war cannot continue. Therefore, Trump's next stance will be very important. Of course, once the Russia-Ukraine war ends, the Middle East and North Korea will also quiet down. Russia will no longer stir up the Middle East and North Korea to cause trouble for the US. Because after Russia is constrained by the military treaty between North Korea and Russia, Putin will also worry that Kim Jong-un might create problems and drag himself into a trap. Therefore, Putin will also restrain Kim Jong-un. Thus, when the Russia-Ukraine war ends, the Middle East and North Korea will calm down, leaving only China to bear the full pressure from the US. Please leave your comments below to let us know your view. If you find this video useful, please support us with a subscribe, a like, and a comment to help us improve this channel. We sincerely thank you and look forward to seeing you in the next commentary.