Can Apple Intelligence live up to its hype?

Invest Insight
8 followers
1 Video View·Nov 4, 2024
Apple's (AAPL) earnings bring Apple Intelligence into focus as the iPhone maker rolls out its artificial intelligence (AI) features, hoping to drive an accelerated device upgrade cycle. Creative Strategies CEO and principal analyst Ben Bajarin joins Market Domination Hosts Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton to discuss the balancing act Apple needs to perform in building excitement around Apple Intelligence to drive upgrades while not overpromising and disappointing users.
Several big tech names have provided
their latest quarterly results,
many reporting higher spending
to capitalize on that AI play.
Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet revealing
they spent a total of nearly $51 billion in CapEx.
That is up from the $30.5 billion
in the same period last year.
As for the benefits from all that AI hype,
all three companies have seen revenue growth
in their cloud businesses,
potentially an encouraging sign for big tech.
Creative Strategies CEO and Principal Analyst,
Ben Beharin, joining us now to discuss all this.
Ben, it is always great to see you on the show.
I did want to start with Apple, Ben,
because you know that company so well.
And you know, I was talking to Apple CFO, Luca Maestri,
and I asked Luca about the rollout of Apple Intelligence
because it's different, right, Ben?
It's gradual, and I was trying to ask Luca
how he thought that kind of gradual rollout
will affect the iPhone upgrade cycle.
And what Luca told me was basically it's tough to predict
because he said, listen, this is different for us,
this kind of gradual rollout.
But yes, it could ultimately mean a different kind of cycle.
Is that how you're thinking about it, Ben?
Yeah, I mean, I think if you look back,
and this is a consumer point,
I know we're going to talk about enterprise AI
in a little bit, but from a consumer standpoint,
it's been hard to look back on the history
of a couple decades of consumer electronics
and really see software itself drive a hardware cycle.
It's typically been very hardware driven.
And I think that's the hardest comp
that many of us are having to make
is to really look at how much of a software angle
is actually going to drive a hardware cycle
when we're kind of, like,
that's not really a comp that we've had before.
So I think the unpredictability of it
is definitely right on.
I mean, I do think there's elements of coming.
I think Apple Intelligence is the most mature
kind of consumer AI implementation
at a system level for customers.
I think Apple's now got to go market and tell that message
and make it clear to consumers
why are they going to want to use these features.
And that's where I think we just don't feel that pull yet.
You know, we're not seeing people line up
or have drastic FOMO, right,
from hearing what their friends use Apple Intelligence
and then they don't have that on our devices.
So I think another few quarters are needed for that.
So I think they're right
in kind of the conservative rollout approach.
But again, I sort of go back to
we just don't have a fundamental comp
where we can see that a software,
in this case an operating system integration,
actually drives a hardware cycle.
Ben, I'm going to get personal on that front for just a second
because I have a 15, right,
so I don't need to buy a new phone.
I put Apple Intelligence on my phone.
It's fine.
I don't really know what to do with it yet.
Like, is there something about it
that you think will prove most compelling
to users that will then drive that upgrade cycle
maybe over the next few quarters?
Like, is there something within it that is the killer thing?
I think it's really hard to point to.
I think you make a very good point.
And I also think it's important to note
that the vast majority of humans who use this technology,
they use smartphones and PCs,
are not using any AI on a daily basis.
I think we've got all of the hype that we talk about
is really about power adopters and early adopters, right?
People who are on the front end of that adoption spectrum.
You talk to folks, you know, just out on the street,
normal consumers, they're not using any of this stuff.
So in that regard, Apple's actually relatively early, right?
They're in a unique position to onboard
and help mature experiences with this software.
And that's kind of new, you know?
They haven't really been in this category before
of taking what we'll consider a bleeding edge technology
and start to get people to care
when it's really their first experience with it.
So I think you're exactly right.
This is an onboarding question.
It's a, how easy is it to discover and use?
These are user interface functions
that I think they're up against.
And to some degree, just philosophical approaches
to how Apple does software.
Like I said, I think they've implemented it
in a way that should meet its expectations.
But I also think, I worry that people are coming
from either too high of expectations
or really no expectations at all
because it's not really a driver for them, right?
To go and want to use these devices.
