Russia Willing to Accept More Casualties to Cause More Damage in Ukraine_ Military Intelligence

Now let's bring in Kervin Aukwin for some analysis on the latest in the war. He's a former lead intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance coordinator for the U.S. Army and the host of the This Week Explained podcast. Good morning, Kervin. Good to have you back. Now, first, what does this expansion of the Russian army to this size say to you? Is this worrying? Oh, first of all, thank you for having me back on. And yes, it's very worrying. So listen, this is more of a strategic move by Russia. They want to build up their forces. Putin has told his military commanders that he wants this war over by 2026 to focus on other things. This saw part of that struggle to get to that victory by 2026. And yes, this is something we've seen in the past. Each year there's been an increase, but this is a much larger increase. And there's a focus away from a smaller, more agile force to a bigger force that can really just hit Ukraine where it hurts. That's very interesting. Now let's talk about this strategy that you mentioned a little bit in more depth. So how much do you think the Kursk invasion, for instance, by Ukraine factored into this? Yeah, it's absolutely a huge factor in this one. And that's going to be used to get the Russian population behind this. They're going to use Russian nationalism to get more people involved into the military. So you're not really going to see this move, this immigration away from Russia by Russian nationals. You'll probably see more people signing up. You're going to see more people focused on winning this war in Ukraine from the Russian side. And Putin is going to keep these talking points of we are being bullied by the West. This is a war that is against the Russian state, and we need to take the fight. We need to become a bigger force in order to take the fight to the United States and to Western Europe. So based on what you said for the first question, I'm taking from it that you're saying that Russia is moving from a more agile, maybe that also means a more targeted approach to a larger size and just based on damage. Tell me more about that, because I was also wondering if that has anything to do with Russia's casualty numbers, maybe? Yeah, absolutely. And look, we don't know the numbers. Russia keeps those very close hold, very classified. Some analysts say that it's over a thousand a day of Russian casualties in this war. Whatever that number is, whether it is in the thousands or it's closer to the hundreds, they will still need to reconstitute those forces. They'll need to increase the forces. And really what's very interesting about this, and maybe a lesson the United States can learn, is that these more agile forces, these special forces that the U.S. is looking to go more towards, maybe doesn't work in these great power wars. And maybe we need to beef up our own troops. And just to clarify really quickly, so what you meant is that Russia is moving to aim for more widespread damage. Is that what it says to you in the coming future in Ukraine? Yeah, definitely. So what it looks like to me is that the commanders on the ground are willing to accept more casualties from the Russian side in order to inflict even more casualties on the Ukrainian side. I've said this many, many times on the podcast, that we're in a war of attrition in the Russia-Ukraine war. And in a war of attrition, it's the amount of forces matter, the amount of equipment matters, the amount of material you have to strike back against a force matters. So from now until 2026, it's going to be interesting what we see here. We're going to see probably a lot more Ukrainian forces, Ukrainian casualties, but we're also going to see a lot more Russian casualties as well. What kind of pressure does this put now on the U.S. and the U.K. to allow long-range weapons? I mean, Zelensky is going to go every day. That's a Ukrainian president. Zelensky will be talking to, you know, his counterparts in the U.S., in the U.K. every single day until they agree to allow for those long-range missile strikes. Right now, Ukraine has successfully used HIMARS on Russian territory to hit Russian training sites. So they're still trying to show their Western allies that there are sites, long-range sites within Russia that can be targeted and be effectively eliminated in order to help them win this war. And I think since we have a couple more seconds, I just want to get one more question and that's okay. So talk to me about, because Putin has been warning about his red lines and the U.S. and you can reportedly, especially the U.S. has been very hesitant to allow these long-range weapons. But when Putin launched his war against Ukraine, thinking he would win it in no time, it's been now two and a half years. Do you think those red lines he's warning about could be just bluffs? Because does he really think he could win a war against NATO? Yeah, look, I don't think there is anything that has happened in the war in Ukraine that tells Putin that the Russian military alone can win a war with NATO. So what has to happen and what I continue to call for is call him out on his bluff. I absolutely do not think he is going to use nuclear weapons because that's a death sentence to him and his legacy. He's very, very concerned about his legacy. So that option I'm sure is off the table, whether it's tactical nukes within Ukraine, that might be possible. But every single attempt to help Ukraine has been said by Putin, this is going to be a red line, this will be a red line. That has not happened yet. He continues to move the goalposts and it's time now to call him on his bluff. Really good insights as usual. Thank you so much, Kevin Aukwin. I appreciate your time this morning. Thank you so much for having me.