Apple's Next Moneymaker and Tim Cook's Future

The services business is interesting because at some point you're going to see Apple move to a more AI-infused search engine. At some point this Google deal that generates about $18 to $22 billion a year from them is going to fall off a cliff because regulators are seriously investigating it. So that's hanging in the balance right now. You're going to see a little dip probably, but at some point when they switch to an AI-based search engine, deeper integration with ChatGPT to replace Google, a new deal with Google Gemini to replace Google Search, Gemini being Google's AI service, you're probably going to see things rebound, right? And so I am optimistic long-term about the company's services business. One thing I will say though is, when was the last time you downloaded an app, right? So the app paradigm where people download apps and Apple takes the commission from there, that's sort of dwindling. The industry has moved to more of a services and subscription model, right, where people are paying monthly for these things. And that makes this especially more lucrative for the company. They're not making money off of app downloads anymore. They're making money off people subscribing to in-app purchases. Mark Gurman, when you look, and it's Tim Cook with Rainbow, and they're inside that fancy building I assume you've been in a bunch of times. When you look at that, what's your longevity, your shelf life of Tim Cook? Yeah, the Tim Cook succession story is one I've been following extremely closely. In fact, following Tim Cook's succession and the succession of Apple's management team is top three in my priority list and it has been for the last year or so. Tim Cook is pushing 64, the rest of the Apple executive team, they're in their early to mid-60s. And so you're going to see this massive changeover of Apple management over the next several years. And you're seeing this starting later this year with the CFO, Luc Bumaistri, he's stepping down as CFO at the tail end of this year, and he's going to move to more of an advisory role in charge of things that are like information systems, real estate. So a much more minute role compared to what he was doing before, and you're going to see other Apple executives move into these smaller roles over time as well. Tim Cook, it can go anywhere. I mean, I've heard people speculate that he's going to leave in the next two to three years. I've heard people believe that he's going to stay until he's 70 plus and pull a Bob Iger, right? But technology obviously is a younger person's game. They have an heir apparent there. His name is John Ternus. He's the senior VP of hardware engineering. Truth be told, there's really no alternative to him, to anyone else, but him being the new CEO down the road. So I think that plan's in place, but it's going to be a scary time when Apple begins that real changeover.