烏軍擊落5月第8架蘇25；俄核彈預警超視距雷達被毀；前線對抗趨緩 烏將大反攻；烏再堅持一年 戰局扭轉？高精度西方武器為何不再奏效？

The 5th Army is on the attack again. The 8th Su-25 was shot down in May. The 5th Army is bombing the super-high-altitude radar The 5th Army is attacking the Halkov. The front line is fighting back. The 5th Army is about to counterattack. The 5th Army is holding its ground. The war is about to turn around. High-precision Western weapons are no longer effective on the front line. Focus on the battlefield. Surround the battlefield. Welcome to the New Cold War. I'm Lin Yuanshan. Today is May 27, 2024. The Russian-Ukrainian war has entered its 824th day. On May 25, another Russian Su-25 was destroyed by the Russian high-altitude artillery on the front line of Donetsk. This good result comes from the 1st Brigade of the 5th Army. This is also the 8th Su-25 that the 5th Army has shot down since May 3. Now the 5th Army can shoot down the Russian-Ukrainian attack aircraft with close fire support almost every day. The Russian military should want to destroy the 5th Army's air defense system in a non-Russian way. However, the current situation also shows that the Russian military has not yet adjusted its tactics. Before that, Ukraine lacked anti-aircraft ammunition. The Su-25 attack aircraft can act at will. But now Ukraine's anti-aircraft ammunition is being constantly lost to the front line. If the Russian military does not change its tactics, there will be more serious losses. It is estimated that the Russian military is also trying to adjust. But due to its military system, the adjustment speed is extremely slow. The Defense Express reported that on May 23, the Russian border area's Novorossiysk-Dnepr DM long-range supersonic radar station was attacked by Ukrainian drones and exploded. This radar station is located near the Krasnodar border area of Almavir, which is part of the Russian strategic nuclear missile attack warning system. This action is likely to show that Ukraine's strategic direction has changed. It also shows that Russia is almost safe. It is noteworthy that a few hours after the drones destroyed the Russian radar, the Ukrainian troops' tactical missiles hit the Russian satellite communication station near Crimea's Al-Shatash. Is the attack on the Russian radar to clear the way for the Russian satellite communication station? Whether these two attacks are related or not, it is undeniable that the destruction of the two targets is a disastrous loss for the Russian military and its defense system. The Russian Dnepr DM radar is extremely precious to the Russian military. The Russian authorities claim that its searchable flat area has reached 6,000 kilometers, and the vertical range has reached 8,000 kilometers. It can simultaneously monitor up to 500 targets and also guard ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and space targets. The main task of this radar is to track strategic missiles and other missile systems. It takes two and a half years to build such a radar. Russia currently has a total of 10 Russian Dnepr Dm radar. This time it was destroyed by the Russian Dnepr Dm radar that is responsible for warning Crimea, the Balkans Peninsula, the Mediterranean and the Bosnian region. In addition, the Russian Dnepr Dm radar also has an important strategic significance. The Arush Tower is located on the Crimean Peninsula and is an important strategic location in the Black Sea region. The Russian Dnepr Dm radar can ensure the Russian military's communication coverage in the entire Black Sea region and its surroundings. In addition, the Russian Dnepr Dm radar is also an important component of the Russian command and control system, responsible for transmitting key military and government communications. It can also be used to receive and process intelligence data, including surveillance and reconnaissance information. The destruction of the battle will seriously affect the Russian military's communication capabilities in the region, weakening its command efficiency and coordination capabilities. This attack is also a major weakening of Russia's overall combat capabilities in the region. For Kharkov, May 26 is another terrible day. The report by the military director of Kharkov, Sinyehubov, shows that two Russian bombs hit a local hardware store, causing six people to die on the spot, and about 120 people were injured. Kharkov Mayor Tarek Khov said, The attack was targeted at a shopping mall, and there were a lot of people there. This is clearly terrorism. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said, If Ukrainian allies want to prevent something similar from happening again, Ukraine should drop bombs on Kharkov and other towns before they throw them. Of course, this is unlikely to happen. Another way is to provide Ukraine with more patriots and other air defense systems. Kuleba emphasized, Strengthening Ukraine's air defense, allowing Ukraine to use Western aid weapons to strike Russian military targets in the region, is the best way to prevent Russia from launching an attack on Kharkov. At the same time, on the front line of Kharkov, the Russian military gathered 5,000 people in the direction of Lipetsk in the southwestern border. Less than 10 kilometers south of the border, the Russian military gathered 10,000 people. This is a new front line opened by the Russian military two weeks ago. The Russian military originally wanted to take advantage of this front line, forcing the Russian military to transfer troops to the northeast front line. As Moscow strengthens its attack in the east, Ukraine's reserves will gradually run out. But even so, the Russian military has not yet reached its goal. The Russian military has not made much progress, and it is basically impossible. The meeting point in the direction of Lipetsk was also severely damaged by the Russian military. Zelenskiy said, the Russian military lost 2,000 to 3,000 people Russia's loss ratio is 8 to 1. Ukraine's Spokesman for the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense, Ihor Prokhorenko, also said, the Russian military had defeated the Russian military in the 30-kilometer buffer zone At the same time, the Ukrainian military is planning to counterattack Now, with the passage of the new mobilization law, the number of Russian troops is increasing. However, new troops need to be trained, and Western military aid is also needed. I'm afraid it will take a few months to counterattack Kharkov. There is also news that the Russian military is now gathering troops at the border of the neighboring Sumy region. However, the Russian military has strengthened its defense there. In addition, the 57th Brigade of the Armed Forces also showed that it had a large number of missiles. This shows that the assistance of Western countries has been in place. According to the ORIX, the confirmation of the target material loss standard, Russia has lost 15,945 heavy equipment since the beginning of the war, while Ukraine has lost 5,802. The outside world thinks that for Ukraine, the war-consuming theory is true, but for Russia, it is extremely unfavorable. Because no matter how much Ukraine consumes, most of it is not its own equipment, and Russia's consumption is a real weakening of itself. ORIX and Open Source Information believe that Russian tanks and armored vehicles have decreased by 45% since the beginning of the war. If the Russian army persists for another year or a year and a half, the entire battlefield situation will change dramatically. In addition, Ukraine has been adhering to the tactics of hitting the enemy, mainly to better consume the Russian army's troops and preserve its own strength. This strategy mainly relies on the Western precision weapon system to try not to let the Russian army get close to the infantry. In order to better deal with the tense situation of the front line troops, the Director General of the Defense Planning Bureau of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Yevhen Ostryansky, recently said that the General Staff has carried out an intelligence investigation, and has decided to optimize personnel configuration at the same time. It plans to reduce 60% of the personnel, including disbanding some military organization structures, and form new organizational structures and optimize existing organizational structures. The reduced personnel is planned to supplement combat and tactical-level command and control institutions and front-line troops. He said, the reform of the General Staff will be a long-term troop that performs combat missions in the battlefield, which can take turns and will also strengthen the structures of those directly managed troops. This structure is to meet the needs of the threat, maintain balance with the country, and prioritize the development of the capabilities of the armed forces. Ukrainian senior military officials pointed out that now the Americans are also beginning to worry. When the Russian army shares information with the West, the Russians are also sharing information with the CCP. Because the Russian army has gained strong military and technical support from the CCP. It should be noted that the high-precision weapons provided by the United States performed well at the beginning of the battlefield, but with the passage of time, the Russian side found a response plan. This caused some of the precision missiles to be easily interfered with by the Russian electronic warfare system, thus losing an advantage on the battlefield. For example, the success rate of the Exalibur high-precision missile fired from a 155mm cannon has dropped to less than 10%. Ukraine gave up these missiles last year. The J-10 precision bomb fired from the plane also had a similar problem. However, the manufacturer soon improved it. Now Ukraine is still using this bomb. The small precision bomb fired from the ground, GLSDB, has also been proven to be ineffective. The Americans are currently studying a new version. It is the same as the M-30 and M-270 high-precision rockets They performed well in the first year of the war, destroying many Russian ammunition depots and command posts. But then the Russian military launched electronic warfare, which interfered with satellite signals. The HMAS began to fail, and could only be used to hit low-priority targets. However, some other weapons, such as the GBU-39 small precision bomb, have been proven to have anti-interference performance. Currently, almost 90% of the bombs can hit targets. The GBU-39 can be fired from the air, and can also be fired by the HMAS system. The long-range ATACMS tactical missile provided by the United States has good anti-interference capabilities, so it doesn't need to say much about its performance. The British Storm Shadow can also be anti-interference, because it not only relies on GPS, but also relies on two other navigation systems, including internal maps corresponding to the planned flight path terrain. In addition, Polish General Tomasz Drewniak said in an interview that the F-16 aircraft is clearly superior to the Soviet MiG-29. The F-16 is a multi-purpose aircraft with a strong ability to hit ground targets, including the air defense system. Ukraine has the F-16, which will change the comparison of air power. But he reminded that the F-16 is not a miracle weapon. Although the aircraft itself has great capabilities, it completely depends on how Ukrainians use these aircraft, and how many F-16s Western aid Ukraine has. At present, the number of Western aid is far from enough, not enough to fundamentally change the situation on the front line. He also said that the main battle tanks provided by the West, such as the aid of a small number of BOS tanks, did not have a significant impact on the battlefield, and the aircraft will be the same. Drewniak reminded Ukrainians not to use F-16s as a miracle weapon, but to maximize the power of the aircraft and protect their own aircraft. Okay, that's it for today's Cold War. I'll see you next time.