【＃精鋭論壇】原発処理水水放出問題で物議を醸したため、10月のゴールデンウィークに日本へ旅行する中国人は激減すると予測されていたが

Welcome to Seiei London, I'm your host, Seki-san. There are two big holidays in China. The first one is the first week of May, and the second one is the first week of October. In this year's October big holiday, many Chinese people went on a trip, but most of it was domestic travel. There were few people who went overseas. Today, I would like to focus on the current situation in Japan and China. Many Chinese media reported that the influence of the processing water issue greatly limited the Chinese people's desire to travel to Japan. But it doesn't seem to be the case. Japan has become a hotspot for Chinese tourists this year, and many Chinese people not only travel to Japan, but also go there to buy houses. Why is that? Today, I have invited the editor-in-chief of Daikigenjihou, Mr. Kakkun, and the TV producer, Mr. Rigun, as guests. The editor-in-chief of Daikigenjihou will also be participating online. Before the program, I would like to recommend that you subscribe to our video site, Ganjin World. Seiei London will be broadcast every Saturday on Ganjin World, so please support us. First, I would like to ask Mr. Kakkun. It was predicted that the number of Chinese people traveling to Japan during the October big holiday would decrease, but it was actually different. What do you think about this? That's right. Japanese media reported that Chinese people not only travel to Japan, but also eat seafood. This has crushed the Chinese religion. In the past few days, Chinese media has rebelled and the number of flights to Japan has increased, but it is not because of travel, but because of work, study abroad, and family visits. Of course, many of the reports, which are different from the facts due to the political reasons of the religious media, are facts of knowledge. In fact, the data on the number of flights to Japan was published by Bloomberg, not Japan. Bloomberg quoted data from Flightmaster, which provides reservation data for airlines on September 25, and said that there are more than 21 million passengers traveling by plane in China. According to the same data, Shanghai and Seoul are among the top 10 international airlines during the big holiday, and four cities in Japan are also in the top 10. Among them, Tokyo and Shanghai are second, Beijing and Tokyo are third, Koshu and Osaka are fourth, and Shanghai and Tokyo are sixth. This shows that Japan is the most important destination for Chinese tourists. During the big holiday, there were a lot of Chinese people on the outskirts of Japan, and a large number of reporters from Japan also reported about it, so it should be true. Can I talk a little? I looked at some related data, and it shows that the number of group tours for Chinese people has certainly decreased, but the number of free tours has increased considerably. In other words, some of the government officials and state-owned enterprises may not want to go on a group tour even if they want to go to Japan. Because after they return from the tour, they have to report to their superiors and say something. The government officials like that have to be politically correct. Even so, they had no choice but to go on a free tour to Japan. This may be the reason. Mr. Kakkun, why is traveling to Japan so popular? The fact that there are so many Chinese people traveling to Japan is actually a big deal. First of all, the number of Chinese people traveling abroad this year, including those going to Europe, the United States, Australia, and Southeast Asia, is decreasing. This reflects the current situation of the Chinese economy. Of course, the decline in overseas travelers is comparable to 2019. For example, in the case of Southeast Asia, according to the data I saw, 20% of people who went to Thailand from January to May were in 2019, and only 12% went to Singapore. Currently, the largest number of foreign tourists in Thailand are actually tourists from other Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia and Singapore. I don't know where the Chinese people traveled because the data for this big holiday hasn't come out yet. I just analyzed it in my own way. However, it is true that the overall number of Chinese overseas travelers has decreased significantly compared to 2019. So I think there are many economic reasons why Chinese people want to go to Japan. The first is exchange. For example, the Japanese yen for the U.S. dollar a few years ago was about $1.10, but now it's about $1.50. Therefore, travel to Japan is actually about one-third cheaper. It is much cheaper to go to Japan than Hong Kong, including hotels, shopping, and restaurants, and the travel experience in Japan is also good. It seems that quite a few people went to Hong Kong this year. That's right. It's about 1 million people. It's actually a lot less than the peak in 2018. In 2018, it was 1.5 million people. Not only did the number of tourists decrease, but as Hong Kong media reported, consumption has also decreased considerably. Many Chinese tourists go on a day trip or take only commemorative photos at famous tourist spots and do not consume them. Some of them are poor travelers, and they only use 100 or 200 Hong Kong dollars. It's the same as not using anything at all compared to the peak. The main reason is still the economic problem. In other words, the U.S. dollar per capita is the same as the Hong Kong dollar per capita. At a foreign kawase shop on the outskirts of Hong Kong, the Hong Kong dollar and the per capita are about 1 to 1, but in 2018 it was about 1 to 0.8. Even a normal bento costs at least 60 yen, but in Japan, you can buy it for 20 or 30 yen and think of it as a property price, and it's half the price. This is very important. Many people may want to go because the price of the property has become cheaper due to the kawase. That's right. In fact, in the Chinese economy, the decline in property prices is serious, and people who don't have money either go on a trip or choose a cheap place to go on a trip. It seems that the Chinese are quite affected by the change in economy. Mr. Ligun, it is said that there are a lot of people who travel domestically in China. Is it still due to the influence of inequality and income? This October holiday is a holiday, so I don't think I'll be at home for a long time. I personally think that it is very normal for more people to travel. According to a survey on the C-DRIP website, the number of people traveling on the first day was 2.8 times that of the previous year. You compared it to 2022. The problem is that it is very strange to compare it with last year. Because last year, in order to carry out the zero-corona policy and go out, PCR testing was carried out and vaccination was also carried out. In addition, there is a risk of so-called time-traveling criminals, and if you go somewhere, you may not be able to return. Of course, not everyone is going out. So comparing this year's data with last year is a very strange way of doing it. Even so, in this year's final statistics, it may be the result that 5-6 billion or 7-8 billion people went on a trip. This figure is relatively normal data in China. However, looking at some of the data this time, the reservation of air tickets and hotels has only increased by 60%. Tourists are increasing by 2.8 times, but why are the number of air tickets and hotel reservations so low? In other words, most of the people who went out did not get on the plane by car, and there were many short-distance trips that did not use luxury hotels. That's why the number of hotel reservations is decreasing. Why don't you go to the mountains and set up a tent? This October's large-scale electric tour has two points of interest so far, and it's a very interesting story. The first is what is called a reverse tour. A reverse tour means that you don't have that kind of money, so you don't go to a popular big city like Shanghai, Nanjing, or Kaohsiung, but go to small tourist cities such as Shishen Township and Unnan Township. According to statistics from China's largest mouth-to-mouth site Bidan, the city with the most food deliveries in October's large-scale electric tour is Taozhou. Since the number of deliveries throughout the city exploded by more than 500% at once, it shows that small tourist cities like this are very popular. What else was the most popular during the large-scale electric tour? It's called a taste tour. In other words, it's a journey to find gourmet food, eat delicious food, and satisfy your taste buds. In order to attract tourists like this, small and large-scale tourist cities are launching local gourmet food and stalls one after another. In such a city, the number of tourists is also quite high. It's very similar to the barbecue boom that happened in Shihaku City in May. That's right. Let's take a look at the increase in the number of tourists in these areas. According to the current statistics, the number of reserved tourists is 400% more than in 2019, which is very high. What does this mean? During this October's large-scale electric tour, people find a place to gather together, eat together, and enjoy the scenery. It's similar to Shihaku City during the large-scale electric tour in May. In fact, it is one of the ways to save travel expenses, whether it is a tour to choose a place that is said to be a reverse tour or a taste tour. So what is the situation in Shihaku City right now? Is it still a barbecue boom? There is no shadow or shape. There is no shadow or shape? That's right. There is no information about Shihaku City anymore. There is no information about going to Shihaku City to eat barbecue during this summer break. So it was temporarily excited, but after that there was nothing. In fact, the most popular overseas destinations this year are Thailand and Japan. However, the Chinese media does not cover Japan. There is a report about Thailand. In the current report, there is a report that the number of Chinese people going to Thailand has increased 18 times last year, and a report that it has increased 20 times. However, since there were few people going abroad last year, the number of Chinese people going to Thailand is the same as in 2019. The number of Chinese people who went abroad last year is only 5% to 6% of the previous year. Of course, this is only data from overseas travel. In fact, the most depressed in China is the number of tourists from foreign countries who have entered China. In the second half of this year, the number of tourists from foreign countries decreased by 99%. In other words, there are about 20,000 to 30,000 tourists from overseas. This is the situation as a whole of Chinese tourism. I would like to ask you. The situation this year is very interesting. For example, in the second half of the year, only 12% of Chinese people go to Singapore, and about 25% go to Thailand. What is the reason for this? Is it because they are afraid that the Chinese will be deceived in that place or the security will be worse? Or is it an economic reason? It is rumored that the security is bad in Thailand, but 25% go to Vietnam, 20% go to Thailand, and 12% go to Singapore. This is not because they are afraid that the security is bad, but because they do not have enough money in their wallets. Chinese people going to Singapore are the most depressed in Southeast Asia. The reason for this is relatively clear. Singapore is becoming the center of Hong Kong and Shanghai, that is, the center of various companies, so the cost of going there is very high. Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries are in the same situation, 25% and 20%. Tourists to Japan are increasing because the group tour of departure has just been canceled on August 10th. In accordance with this, I think that the number of tourists to Japan has increased. People who originally wanted to go on a trip, people who wanted to go, whether they were patriotic or not, can only go on this October holiday, so they have no choice but to go. I think this is a very big reason. A large number of Japanese reporters have said that many Chinese people go to Japan to see houses as a feature of this year's Chinese tourists. It seems that there are many rich people, so they actually see it for themselves and buy it if they like it. In the past, the main purpose of Chinese people buying a house in Japan was investment, but now the main purpose is for their own living. I would like to ask you a question. Why do Chinese people want to buy a house in Japan? Can they actually live on their own after buying it? What do you think about this? The real estate market in China is unlikely to improve again, and it is unlikely that it will improve in the next few years. The government is still fighting against the so-called price limit policy. In China, many people believe that they are building wealth through real estate investment. There are not only people who rely on exporting business, but also people who rely on real estate investment. Because real estate is the only large financial leverage that ordinary people can use, and you can borrow hundreds of thousands to millions of yen loans at once for large projects. In other projects, no one will lend you so much money. Therefore, many people will use this investment method to avoid risks. For example, it is a story that a husband started a business and went bankrupt, but his wife bought a house and made money. They should have an investment point of view like this. Another one is the unforeseen development of Japan's economy. Japan has changed from a capital outflow country to a capital inflow country. In the past, GDP was converted into GNP and investment was made all over the world. Now, even some Japanese companies with factories in China are returning to Japan. This is a very surprising sign. In other words, the labor force of China's developing regions is too expensive, and they are thinking about leaving China and returning to Japan. In addition, the relationship between Japan and China is getting more and more tense. In fact, some American companies and Japanese companies are preparing for a complete separation so that Chinese parts are not used. For example, Daikin Air Conditioning currently does not use Chinese parts at all in some production lines. Japanese parts are used for core parts, and Southeast Asian parts are used for surrounding parts, and Chinese parts are completely avoided. In other words, Japan's awareness of crisis is very strong, and as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are tense, Japan is preparing in all directions for the various situations that may occur in the future. From this point of view, these countries have received financial support for a long time in various areas, such as real estate, and the outlook for economic development is very good. This is why Japan and Korea have been able to develop the economy of one country at a time in the past. In fact, China was once at the forefront of the economy. During the Cold War, China was also at the forefront of the Cold War, so the United States saved China. Japan's real estate price soared sharply between 1990 and 1991, and then the bubble collapsed. Is Japan's real estate price now back to its original high? It's not back to the high it was at the time, but since 2010, it has gradually started to rise from a low position. However, since the 2020 pandemic, real estate prices have risen sharply. I'm sure the Chinese are aware of this rapid rise. I'm sure the Chinese are also concerned about Japan. The main causes of the rise are the pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the tension between the United States and China. All of these have disrupted Japan's industry and raised the real estate price. The same situation is happening in the United States. This year, the mobility of factories in the U.S. and Japan has reached its highest level in decades. Investments in Japan and the U.S. and the influx of funds have led to a sharp rise in real estate prices. This is the same trend in the real estate market in Vietnam and India, and it is due to the restructuring of China's industry. Now, I'd like to ask Mr. Lee. If real estate prices in Japan have risen since 2010, do you think it's a good idea to buy a house in Japan? I talked about this issue with a friend yesterday. The best way for wealthy people in China right now is to buy real estate in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, and then buy real estate in Tokyo. This is because you can maintain the value of real estate and increase its value. For example, my friend has a house in Shanghai that is 300 square meters and has about 90 houses. Its market value is 250,000 yuan per square meter, or about 5.1 million yen. The total amount is 75,000,000 yuan, or about 1.5 billion yen. The price of a luxury apartment in the Tokyo Bay Area is about 3 billion yen, or about 2 million dollars, which is equivalent to 16 million yen. Now that the price of real estate has gone up, if you have 75,000,000 yuan, or about 1.5 billion yen, you can buy as many apartments as you want in Japan. Now that the Japanese economy is going up, buying a house in Japan is a good way to maintain and increase the value of real estate. On the other hand, his house in China, the current economic situation in Shanghai is very tough. Even if you sell a house worth 75,000,000 yuan, or about 1.5 billion yuan, for 45,000,000 yuan, or about 900,000 yuan, you won't be able to buy it. So there will be a loss of 30,000,000 yuan, or about 600,000 yuan. According to his friend, according to the rising trend of the current Japanese economy and real estate market, if you have enough money, or if you sell a house in Shanghai, you should hurry and buy two houses in Tokyo. Yes, yes, in fact, the Chinese, especially the people of China now, have a case that Mr. Tei talked about earlier. I also know a Chinese in a case like this. In other words, it is a case in which the husband trades in stocks and the wife trades in real estate. In the end, the husband survived and the wife made a lot of money. In other words, the level of technology to determine whether a Chinese person buys a house or a stock is completely different. I think this story is very interesting. My wife worked in a tax office, and at first she worked in a stock trading company. The other people were all investing in stocks, but in the end they lost tens of thousands of yuan. And she moved to another company in a temporary move, and this time she moved to a real estate company. All the staff in that department were investing in real estate, and she also made hundreds of thousands of yuan by trading in real estate with them. You made a lot of money. Later, I told her that I had been losing money when I was in the stock trading department, but when I was in the real estate department, I made a lot of money. And now the Chinese have a certain belief. In other words, they want to invest in overseas, but they don't believe in anything else. They don't know much about the economy, they don't know the role of the top companies, and they don't have any internal information. But they can see the house in the area, they can judge the good and bad of it, and they can even think of the feng shui themselves. So after the Chinese went abroad, their favorite thing is to invest in real estate. Mr. Kakkun, what do you think of the Japanese economy? How do you think it will change in the future? The Japanese economy in the future may be able to get out of the so-called lost 30 years. In fact, the Japanese economy has begun to recover from 7-8 years ago. Not only Chinese, but other foreign capital has also entered Japan. For example, American investor Buffett has been investing in Japan for the past two years, and the return on investment is quite good. The most important thing is, of course, that Japan has a high-precision manufacturing industry. Currently, there are two countries that lead the world in precision manufacturing. One is Germany, and the other is Japan. Most of the precision machining machines and precision chemical products are related to these two countries. Japan also has great advantages in other fields, such as cutting-edge semiconductor materials. The Japanese economy began to take off from the 1950s, and 30 years later, in the 1980s, the Japanese economy faced a bubble. The value of real estate, including real estate prices, rose sharply. Starting in the 1990s, the bubble collapsed, and since then, Japan has continued to adjust for 30 years. The most important thing is that the leading manufacturing companies in Japan have basically survived these 30 years and have made great progress in manufacturing technology. Capital is like a stream of water, and funds tend to flow to people's money and cheap underground. In the 1980s, when there was a sharp price increase, people's money rose sharply, and after that, the underground rose sharply. But now that it's cheap and manufacturing robots are starting to spread, manufacturing costs are falling, so we can predict the flow of capital. Of course, another important factor is that high-tech manufacturing companies in the United States will definitely build a strong relationship with Japan in the future. In the late 1980s, high-tech manufacturing companies separated in Japan and the United States, and Japan missed the era of the Internet. Now that cooperation has resumed, the situation may be completely different. For example, the manufacture of the U.S.'s most powerful fighter, the F-35, is a very good example. In the future, I believe that Japan's prospects are very bright in the restructuring of the world's political economy. Mr. Ligon, I have a question. Have you ever been to Japan? Yes, I have. What was your impression of Japan? At that time, I went as a media person, but I had a prejudice against Japan. However, it changed after I traveled to Japan. Here are my impressions at the time. First of all, Japan is very clean. No matter where I went, even small streets and alleys were very clean. Second, Japanese people are very polite. When I talk to some Japanese people, I feel very comfortable, and they respect me very much. The worst thing in China is the lack of a spirit of respect for others. If you are one step above, you will basically look down on others. I met some people in Japan, and some of them were Japanese companies, Japanese politicians, and Japanese scholars. I felt very comfortable communicating with them. I believe that many Chinese people probably feel the same way. When I went to Japan with prejudice and stayed there for a while, I realized that Japan was actually a pretty good place, and my first thought changed. So at the time, this was very impressive. Many people are talking about what you just said, but it's quite interesting. Before Chinese people go, they have a negative image, and after they go, they have two places with a positive image. One is Japan, and the other is Taiwan. In fact, many Chinese people are going to Japan now. I know there are many people going to Tokyo. These people will have the same impression as me. Japan has a very high quality overall, and by touching it, the way they see Japan changes. Currently, the Chinese Communist Party is abusing the U.S. and Japan to achieve its political goals, and is inciting hatred against Japan. However, I don't think this is necessary at all. Ever since China began the reform and opening up, Japan has been very supportive of China. Before, Japan was very friendly to China, but the Chinese Communist Party has driven it into a situation like it is now. I think they have a strong opposition to the Chinese Communist Party. Finally, I would like to ask you, do you think that the investment in Japan is timely for the Chinese now? American investor Mr. Buffett is a very conservative investor, but he wants to invest in five Japanese companies and increase them further. I think investors who hate risk can double their investment in Japan. Because, as Mr. Ligon said, it is a story of stock investment and real estate investment. In fact, real estate investment is very timely, and it is very expensive to invest in debt. In stock investment, you can't invest too much leverage except for business investors. However, real estate investment can invest very high leverage even among the common people. I don't give specific advice on investing in Japan, but I think it is worth considering. Because it is very safe. People who invest in real estate in Japan, especially the Chinese, will find it very difficult to invest leverage in that place. In general, after selling a house in China, they get cash and look for other places to invest. Comparatively, Japan is a place where the legal environment, security environment, and economic foundation are relatively solid, but of course I don't give investment advice here. Well, it's about time. Thank you to all the guests who gave very wonderful opinions. I would also like to thank everyone who watched. See you again in the next program.