Elon Musk is continuously bombing the 2022 plan! The SpaceX official update for 2022!

SpaceX is launching into 2022 with by far their most ambitious project yet. Getting Starship into orbit and back down to Earth successfully, and not just doing it once to prove a point, but reaching a launch and landing frequency of every two weeks by the end of 2022. Aside from that, SpaceX in the new year could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021. So the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world's most prolific commercial launch provider and its powerful rockets. Welcome back to SpaceX Fans. Don't forget to hit that subscribe button and turn on the notification feature to make sure that you won't miss any interesting information about Elon Musk, SpaceX, or anything related to space. Now let's get back to today's content. Starting off with Starship, SpaceX had been aiming to launch Starship on its first orbital test flight in January or February. But as we discussed in the last episode, we might have to wait a bit longer for the orbital debut of SpaceX's Starship Martian rocket. First orbital test flight was pushed to March at the earliest, but let's not be discouraged. This just means that SpaceX will have more time to prepare for continuous flights in 2022. On the other hand, with the strict regulations of the FAA, SpaceX will certainly have safer flights. It'll definitely have to take one step back to take two steps forward. Musk later estimated SpaceX would attempt a dozen Starship launches next year and possibly more. The engine build rate is currently the biggest constraint on how many vehicles we can make, he said. Given that Super Heavy requires 29 Raptor engines currently, and later 33, along with six on the Starship, the company is building a new factory in Texas for high-volume production of Raptor. If SpaceX is successful in recovering and reusing Starship during those test flights, its operational missions could begin in 2023. Next, let's consider what SpaceX has planned for its workhorse rockets in 2022. During 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX's Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world, beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country's national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia. However, thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX's planned 2021 launches into next year, the company's 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. The information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is, the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions. In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe like 2021's semiconductor supply issues, for example, unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year, including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX's 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it's been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in a single year. But obviously, we can't ignore the plan with Starlink. In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching exactly 989 satellites in a single year. In the first 5 months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX's Falcon fleet, the company would technically be on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which combined with all other missions would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021. That specificity is important because, save for a single Starlink mission, the approximate 40 commercial launches in SpaceX's 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial launches to launch on top of 1 or 2 dozen potential Starlink version 1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink version 1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink which peaked at an implied average of more than 1,800 satellites per year in H1 2021. It might be reasonable to expect up to 20 rather than 30 Starlink version 1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady. Altogether, that means that SpaceX's nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question then is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than 1 launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just last month. In December of 2021, the company, pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits, completed a record 5 Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those 5 launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA's DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched 6 Falcon 9 rockets in less than 4 weeks, or 27 days. So with all that in mind, can SpaceX achieve this record? Given the company's recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it's clear that SpaceX could technically repeat the feat. A burst of 5 launches in 3-4 weeks every month. Obviously, that's easier said than done, and it's inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after. But the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching 5 times in 3 weeks, and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month. Averaged throughout 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it's by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021's Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023, and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and around 15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50. Still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends which have seen SpaceX's annual cadence grow from 21 in 2018 and 26 in 2020 to 31 in 2021, 35-40 launches would still be a more conservative estimate for 2022. Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company's manifest include 2 Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, 1 or 2 private Crew Dragon missions to the ISS, up to 3 commercial moon landers, a Korean moon orbiter, NASA's Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as 5 or 6 Falcon Heavy launches. And that just about wraps it up for today's episode. Don't forget to share your ideas about today's content in the comment section down below. Everyone's support motivates us to create more quality content for viewers like you. So for that, we thank you so much and hope to see you again next time.