NOAA's 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Hello from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. If a hurricane were to strike your community today, would you be ready? If you were evacuated, would you know where to go? If not, then it's time to get prepared. Hurricane season begins on June 1st and runs through November 30th. I'll give you some tips for how you can prepare at the end of this video, but first let me tell you what kind of Atlantic hurricane season we're predicting at NOAA this For 2017, my team and I are predicting that an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely. The Atlantic hurricane season will likely produce a range of 11 to 17 tropical storms, of which 5 to 9 are expected to become hurricanes. 2 to 4 of those are expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. We're predicting a 45% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only about a 20% chance that the season will be below normal. Overall, this outlook reflects the expectation for a weak or non-existent El Nino, near-average or above-average sea surface temperatures across the main hurricane formation region, and average or weaker than average vertical wind shear in that region. The season could be comparable to last year, which was the most active season since 2012 with 15 named storms. We don't forecast how many storms might make landfall, because this far in advance, we really can't predict what atmospheric conditions will be in place to steer the individual storms. Yet, we all know that hurricanes and tropical storms threaten the U.S. every year. Last year we saw 5 landfalling storms, 2 of which were hurricanes. One of those storms was Hurricane Matthew, which caused $10 billion in U.S. economic losses due to wind and water damage. Matthew also killed 34 people in the United States and another 551 in the Caribbean, making it one of the deadliest Atlantic storms on record. We need to learn from experience with past storms to reduce future deaths and economic losses. Nine out of ten fatalities associated with hurricanes are drownings due to water from inland flooding and coastal storm surge. And remember that flooding from hurricanes and tropical storms can extend hundreds of miles inland. But with just a few simple steps, you and your family can be prepared to weather any storm this year. First, determine your vulnerability to the many different types of hurricane hazards that can arise. And then update your family evacuation and communication plans. Third, restock your emergency supply kits. And finally, be sure that you have sufficient insurance coverage. FEMA's website, ready.gov, offers a lot of additional tips and resources. And also check out the National Hurricane Center at their website, hurricanes.gov, throughout the year to stay abreast of watches and warnings. Start preparing today, and together we can build a weather-ready nation, one that is resilient to the impacts of hurricanes and tropical cyclones.