Power Shifts in Beijing: What’s Next for the Fourth Plenum?

Hi, I'm Dong Seong. Welcome to digging into China, where we explore China in depth to review unique perspectives. I want to share some significant political news from China. Lie Chong has outlined a new direction for the country's economy. Historically, Shiinping has been the one to set such courses. But in midMay, Shinua news agency reported that the premier Li Chong is now guiding China's economic path. Here is how Shin Hua described it. The state council convened a meeting to bolster the domestic economic cycle precided over by Vice Premier Dingu Xang, Vice Premier Jang Guing and Li Guong along with the state councils Wang Xiao Hong Wu Jang Long and Shan Ying attended joined by key officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and several provinces and cities. During this meeting, Premier Lee Chong emphasized that domestic demand must take precedence and that a self- sustaining internal economy is a unique strength for a major nation. He stressed that strengthening the domestic economic cycle should be a central focus in shaping a new development framework. Lie Chong highlighted four priorities. First, efficient resource allocation. Second, deep integration of technological and industrial innovation. Third, self-reliant and comprehensive industrial and supply chains. And fourth, a dynamic balance between supply and demand. Let me offer two perspectives on Lie Chong's guidance for China's economic direction. First, Lie Chong's remarks diverged from the Chinese Communist Party's traditional rhetoric. Previously when the party emphasized the domestic cycle, it always paired it with the international cycle creating a cohesive logical framework where the two complemented each other. Rarely did they focus solely on one especially the domestic cycle except in foreign trade discussions where the international cycle was highlighted. For Lee Chong as premier to emphasize only the domestic cycle when addressing economic challenges sends a political signal. This likely isn't his unilateral decision, but reflects Shi Jinping's assessment of China's economic future. Furthermore, the four measures Lee Chong proposed carry a clear implication of decoupling from the global economy. He called for building self-reliant industrial and supply chains, promoting self production and a self-conumption. But if you achieve full self-sufficiency, what does that mean for your ties to the global economy? It suggests decoupling. This intense focus on the domestic cycle is noteworthy and merits close attention. Second, China's current economic challenges aren't primarily about incomplete industrial or supply chains. The core issues are over capacity, insufficient consumer purchasing power, and an economy trapped in deflation. Breaking this harmful deflationary cycle requires bold and innovative measures. Yet, Lie Chong's speech with its four proposed measures sidsteps deflation entirely. it lacks critical strategies to address it and he seems to deliberately avoid issue. Effective solutions would focus on tackling unemployment, increasing incomes and addressing widespread pessimism about the future. The Chinese Communist Party currently portrays external pressures such as the trade war as the root of all China's difficulties. But this is misleading. The trade war is merely one factor in China's broad economic struggles, not the most critical one. Domestic challenges like over capacity, the real estate crisis, local government debt, financial risks, and an aging population are far more pressing. Yet, Lie Chong avoids addressing these issues as if all of China's problems can be attributed to Trump. This reflects a rather flawed governing logic. Another topic generating significant discussion both in China and internationally is whether the Chinese Communist Party's leadership will undergo major changes at the fourth plenary session. What was once a mere speculation is now being discussed by US and Taiwanese officials. The question of whether Xiinping might partially step back at the fourth plan has evolved into an international political issue, moving beyond the rumors. Let's examine this together. First, let's review some international media reports about the potential shifts in China's top decision-making ranks. One argument suggesting Xiinping might partially relinquishing power is that his trusted allies in the military are being removed one by one. Reports site specific data. Since taking office, she has appointed 79 generals and 12 have been arrested so far. That's a 20% arrest rate among his appointees, which is notably high. Some interpret this as evidence that she's allies in the military are losing influence, suggesting he's losing control over the armed forces. Second, some overseas narratives claim she's authority is diminishing. For instance, on May 13th, the People's Liberation Army Daily published a report about armed the police with the headline, "Seek truth, be pragmatic, reform work style, and boost grassroots morale." Notably, the article made no mention of Chairman Shei. Third, another piece of evidence fueling speculation that she might lose some authority or partially step back comes from a recent trade war negotiation that took an unexpected turn. She's close ally Hur Leong traveled to Switzerland for talks with the US and met with Swiss Federal President Karen Kellas Sutter. During this meeting, Hurly conveyed greetings from Chinese leaders and delivered a personally signed letter from Premier Lee Chong. Shinua's report on this meeting omitted any mention of Xi Jinping. In a headto- state level diplomatic exchange, one would expect a letter from Shei, not Lie Chong. This diplomatic incident has led some to believe she's authority may be partially constrained, fueling speculation about significant changes in the party's top ranks at the fourth plenum. There is also widespread discussion that she might adopt a Tang Xiaoing model, meaning a partial retirement where he retains the chairmanship of the central military commission or the presidency but relinquishes the role of general secretary. Some even claim the next general secretary has already been selected. Here are my thoughts. First, the three widely discussed news stories interpreted as evidence of she losing power are in my view weak and don't convincingly demonstrate a loss of authority. For example, the 20% arrest rate among she's appointed generals doesn't prove he's lost control of the military. She has been in power for over a decade and most generals appointed before his tenure have retired. those remaining are his appointees. Arresting his own appointees doesn't indicate a loss of control. It's not a logical conclusion. Today's top party officials are all she's appointees. He can remove anyone he chooses and when he does, he replaces them with more of his loyalist. Thus, the arrest of his appointed generals shouldn't be seen as evidence of losing control over the military. regarding her phone delivering Lee Chong's letter and greetings to the Swiss federal president. This should be viewed as a standard diplomatic protocol, not proof of she's diminished power. Switzerland's political system is unique. The federal president seen as the country's symbolic head serves one year, one nonrenewable term, one year, though they can run again later. The role is largely ceremonial with no greater authority than other federal council members. They simply chair meetings. Understanding this context, there is no significant hidden meaning in her delivering a letter from Lie Chong. At times, she avoids engaging with leaders he perceives as unequal in status. Second, I believe Xi Jinping is unlikely to voluntarily relinquish any power at the fourth planet. Given his current environment, he operates with considerable fear. In the party's internal power struggles, he's made many enemies and fierce retaliation. Even though he's personally appointed nearly everyone in key positions, he remains deeply suspicious, treating them as potential threats. His relentless purges in the military where almost everyone except Jang Yo Sha faces scrutiny reflect his fear. He perceives anyone with real power as a potential threat. Why does he feel everyone is against him? It stems from a guilty conscience. His extreme self- reggard and the pursuit of absolute control have disrupted China's decades long system of power and interest distribution. Any loss of dictatorial power could jeopardize she's personal safety much like a Putin. Even if Putin theoretically stepped down as Russia's present, he would never relinquish control over decision making. The same applies to sheep. Without absolute power, his survival would be at risk. That is just my take. Thank you so much for watching. If you find this video helpful, please like it, drop a comment below, and hit the subscribe button right here. It really helps YouTube suggest my video to others. I'll be back with more content soon. Until then, be well.